Recent QB Draft Classes

[Sgt Schultz]

This always gets into that "great taste" vs. "less filling" debates.

QB's that are drafted early in the first round fail at a high rate.  But is it them, or is it the fact they are also drafted at a high rate by dog dung teams?

Look at the 2021 draft.  Arguably the three top prospects went to Jacksonville, the Jest, and da Bears.  Add that Jacksonville was trying some lab experiment with Urban effing Meyer as their head coach.  How much worse does it get for a QB, young or a vet, than those three teams?  Da Bears don't always stink, but even when they don't, they are not a QB haven.  If somehow Fields comes out of that as a quality NFL QB, somebody ought to throw him a parade (and strike up the band, because he is looking like he might just pull that off). 

Lance and Jones landed in two gardens of Eden by comparison. 

Money aside, if you are a highly-rated QB entering the NFL draft, you almost want to purposely run a 5.7 40 at the combine and throw the ball on a 30-degree angle from the target and grab your shoulder in the hope you will fall past about pick 15 just to have a chance in the NFL.  Otherwise, barring some trade that has a decent team drafting in the top 5 or 10, you are probably looking at starting your career at a place that has drafted seven QBs in the first round over the last 25 years, and none of them worked out.

And yes, some of the QB's in that group just are not NFL QB's.  But between those and the ones who might have been had they not been drafted into some abyss, it's no wonder the success rate is as low as it is.

[Krovvy]

8 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

Are we still doing this?

Every year for the last four years someone has made this thread.

[Catsfan69]

Lol it's Lawrence Wilson Jones Fields in that order AINEC

[Aussie Tank]

6 hours ago, Snake said:

You're going to look very foolish in a few years. 

Already does 

[Rags]

13 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Look at the 2021 NFL draft

 

 

huh that's weird. Why would you start at 2021 when the common rule is to give draft classes at least 3 years. whats even weirder is that the 2020 nfl draft ended up with 4 starting QBs. 

Why David if I didn't know any better i'd say you intentionally left out the 2020 class just to make ur poo point look like it has legs.

[ForJimmy]

19 minutes ago, Catsfan69 said:

Lol it's Lawrence Wilson Jones Fields in that order AINEC

Wilson might be the worst of them right now, but he has a high ceiling.  

[CanadianCat]

10 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

LOL You called him a bust after one game in a fuging hurricane.  You are a complete joke

Its people like you that make the internet the hot garbage it is.. 

Fuuuck.

Like OP makes a decent post, says he was wrong about about an opinion and your response is to crap on the guy. Nice. Who knows, maybe he does the same back to you but I for one get super sick of people 'taking receipts' to poo on people when their unprofessional opinion are wrong. 

Gosh this place can suck at times. 

[weyco2000]

13 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Wilson - Looks pretty solid but I wouldn't call him Franchise yet

[X-Clown]

53 minutes ago, Catsfan69 said:

Lol it's Lawrence Wilson Jones Fields in that order AINEC

we know you love to talk to text when you get a chance to spit those hot takes “on them runnin QBs”. 

hE JuSt ThRoWs A bEtTeR bALL!!

[Basbear]

3 hours ago, Krovvy said:

Every year for the last four years someone has made this thread.

 

[Snake]

8 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

Name one that I haven't admitted to.  I admitted Fields is better but there isn't anything else.

Go ahead I'm waiting?  

What I find hilarious is that all you you that are defending Lance are the same ones that are calling Corral a bust.  

Lance had a full season to understudy and looked abysmal in his 1st start.  He received plenty of reps and yet Corral who received zero reps with the 1st or 2nd team.  He's a bust.

Got it. 

Oh my are we on the brink of making bets now? My entire purpose was to point out you can't judge a QB in two years and stats and pretty much every expert will agree with me. Also for clarification I've never said Corral was a bust. I wish he wasn't injured and I blamed Rhule for doing that to him but that's about it. 

[Snake]

8 hours ago, Pakmeng said:

His first year as a starter was his best year as a passer.  His yards, tds, completion pct, and rating have gone down. His interceptions up. 

What are you watching?

Are you saying Lamar Jackson is worse now than year one? Did I read that correctly? 

[CPantherKing]

You don't acquire a QB with hindsight or going off their ranking coming out of college based on traditional scouting methods. This has proven itself more wrong than right time and time again.

Over the past 23 seasons there have been 8 1st round QBs and 6 non-1st round QBs who have won the SB. There is a consistent near 50/50 split when it comes to historical top franchise QBs and successful franchise QBs among all NFL teams.

The draft capital spent on these 1st round SB winning QBs totals 14,790 points. Non-1st round SB winning QBs total 967 points. Only 3 of these QBs were #1 picks and 2 of them were named Manning. Investing in a 1st round QB is costly and it does not give a team an advantage of winning the SB.

Approaching the acquisition of a franchise QB is much like investing in companies. You want to hit more than you miss, and learning on what not to invest in is more important than investing in the QBs everyone is talking about. You will pass on some good QBs, but you will not collect the failed QBs.

I've been working with data analytics since I was a kid and have since made a career out of it. I loved using data analytics on players in the NFL.

There is more to it, but if you follow these simple rules, you will hit on many QBs capable of taking your team to the SB. QBs must have GWD success in college (this will not get better in the NFL), QB has a hero mentality regarding their offense (think firefighter), demonstrates champion leadership ability in HS and college, QB has a sigma personality, and QB has professional sports pedigree. If a QB hits on all 5, you draft them #1 since they are a pedigree franchise QB. If they hit on 4 of 5, they are rare and get drafted if they fall to the late first round. If they hit on 3 of 5, they are a hidden gem that can be developed quickly on the NFL level - draft them in the 3rd to 5th round. If they hit on 2 of 5, they are a top franchise back up QB. If they hit on GWD only, they are a potential project and you sign them as a UDFA to run the scout team and prove they are worth a 3rd QB spot on the roster.

The rest of the standard measurables can be easily scouted and coached.

You will also need to be patient with this because it means you will have to eliminate an entire pool of QB draftees for a given year. I have never had more than 4 QBs qualify in a single draft class. Most draft classes will not produce a single QB based on this criteria. You will go multiple drafts without a QB, and will need to spot the players who other teams have missed to fill out your teams roster. Only 3 draft classes have produced multiple QBs worth drafting based on the positions they were drafted since 1995.

Since 1995, the only drafts a QB would be added to the roster from the draft pool using this criteria would be 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2022.

Other strategy's will work too. This one I use will allow you to hit on 4 of every 5 QBs your team will add from a given draft class.

[X-Clown]

5 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

You don't acquire a QB with hindsight or going off their ranking coming out of college based on traditional scouting methods. This has proven itself more wrong than right time and time again.

Over the past 23 seasons there have been 8 1st round QBs and 6 non-1st round QBs who have won the SB. There is a consistent near 50/50 split when it comes to historical top franchise QBs and successful franchise QBs among all NFL teams.

The draft capital spent on these 1st round SB winning QBs totals 14,790 points. Non-1st round SB winning QBs total 967 points. Only 3 of these QBs were #1 picks and 2 of them were named Manning. Investing in a 1st round QB is costly and it does not give a team an advantage of winning the SB.

Approaching the acquisition of a franchise QB is much like investing in companies. You want to hit more than you miss, and learning on what not to invest in is more important than investing in the QBs everyone is talking about. You will pass on some good QBs, but you will not collect the failed QBs.

I've been working with data analytics since I was a kid and have since made a career out of it. I loved using data analytics on players in the NFL.

There is more to it, but if you follow these simple rules, you will hit on many QBs capable of taking your team to the SB. QBs must have GWD success in college (this will not get better in the NFL), QB has a hero mentality regarding their offense (think firefighter), demonstrates champion leadership ability in HS and college, QB has a sigma personality, and QB has professional sports pedigree. If a QB hits on all 5, you draft them #1 since they are a pedigree franchise QB. If they hit on 4 of 5, they are rare and get drafted if they fall to the late first round. If they hit on 3 of 5, they are a hidden gem that can be developed quickly on the NFL level - draft them in the 3rd to 5th round. If they hit on 2 of 5, they are a top franchise back up QB. If they hit on GWD only, they are a potential project and you sign them as a UDFA to run the scout team and prove they are worth a 3rd QB spot on the roster.

The rest of the standard measurables can be easily scouted and coached.

You will also need to be patient with this because it means you will have to eliminate an entire pool of QB draftees for a given year. I have never had more than 4 QBs qualify in a single draft class. Most draft classes will not produce a single QB based on this criteria. You will go multiple drafts without a QB, and will need to spot the players who other teams have missed to fill out your teams roster. Only 3 draft classes have produced multiple QBs worth drafting based on the positions they were drafted since 1995.

Since 1995, the only drafts a QB would be added to the roster from the draft pool using this criteria would be 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2022.

Other strategy's will work too. This one I use will allow you to hit on 4 of every 5 QBs your team will add from a given draft class.

To me any analytical discussion about QBs and where they should be drafted shouldn't include anything before 2011. This is is when the rookie salary cap was implemented. The last year before the rookie salary cap was implemented, Sam Bradford signed a 6 year contract for 78 million with 50 million in guarantees as the number one overall pick. Cam got 22 million for 4 years one year later. This makes a HUGE difference in roster construction and makes it easier to draft another QB shortly after if you don't see that your guy is cutting it.