Lions win

[t96]

7 hours ago, PantherPhann89 said:

Who is that? 

No one will know until after they play in the big leagues…

[Cullenator]

Ryan Leaf

Todd Marinovich

Andre Ware

Jamarcus Russell

Akili Smith

 

for the pro-tank crowd

[MasterAwesome]

17 hours ago, stbugs said:

But that history is littered with terrible GMs too. @LinvilleGorge is right. We want the best available pick. Do you want to be the Cardinals and have to go Rosen because Allen is gone or the Panthers and go Brown because Burrow, Tua and Herbert are all gone? How would Panthers history be if we had to go Locker and Gabbert since Cam was gone?

We can easily be the Browns and Jets but it’s best to have our choice of QB even if we screw it up. Based on how many bad teams we play, we are likely looking at tier 2 QBs and that’s a hope and a prayer right now. I think we’ll be closer to pick 10 than pick 3. Having our SOS is good for tiebreaker but I think we’ll win enough to drop and unfortunately keep our coaches.

Don't you think you could do the same thing though for teams who lucked into the better QB because they picked later and the guy they would've taken was already gone?  Who thinks the Bears wouldn't have taken Zach Wilson if they were picking #2, over Justin Fields?  I wonder if the Dolphins wish they were one pick later where Tua was already gone and they were forced to take Herbert instead.  How about Lamar Jackson?  Do you think the Ravens would have necessarily used a Top 10 pick on a gamble like that rather than at #32 where the value was more reasonable?

Now if you expand this beyond QBs to every position, think about how many busts teams were able to avoid simply due to a team ahead of them already drafting that particular player.  This probably happens dozens of times every year.  You can say it all boils down to the competence of a team's GM/scouting, but sometimes players that should be great inexplicably end up busting, and others that should be busts inexplicably have great careers.

Objectively speaking, of course having a higher pick is obviously better and anyone arguing otherwise is delusional.  But I just think there are countless examples every year where teams happen to luck into a better outcome because they picked later.  If you had a direct irrefutable correlation of higher pick = better draft then yeah sure it'd be much more tempting to be all in on the tank.  But when you factor in the crazy randomness of the draft every year where tons of high picks bust and tons of later picks flourish, then it muddies the waters a bit to where I've adopted more of a nihilistic approach of "let's enjoy the season...whatever happens, happens...let's hope for a good draft wherever we end up picking".

[MasterAwesome]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

No argument from me there. That’s always been my point. Having a better pick opens up more doors, but you have to walk through the right door. I honestly think we are kind of out of the QB draft slots this year. I think we’ll roll with Carrol next year.

Good thing we've got a pretty solid o-line to protect the poor guy!

[PantherPhann89]

6 hours ago, t96 said:

No one will know until after they play in the big leagues…

Facts and the point of my question...

[Basbear]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Cam Newton for the pro-tank crowd. Would you rather have had Locker or Gabbert?

Comical that you’d pick Leaf when the guy picked before him was a HOFer. Wouldn’t that imply that the Colts tanking got them a SB win and a decade of playoffs instead of Leaf? Akili Smith was taken 1 pick after McNabb so a little more tanking and you have a pro bowl QB.

Marinovich was pick 24 when the first round was 27 picks. Isn’t that the opposite of tanking?

What a terrible list. I hope you didn’t spend long on it. 

I was too young to be playing draft "guru", I was in the Leaf >>>> Manning. Dat arm was 4x better than than paytons noodle......but had no clue/insight to either mind/brain....

but alll teams have gotten better at drafting since then, mainly the bad teams....

[Cullenator]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Cam Newton for the pro-tank crowd. Would you rather have had Locker or Gabbert?

Comical that you’d pick Leaf when the guy picked before him was a HOFer. Wouldn’t that imply that the Colts tanking got them a SB win and a decade of playoffs instead of Leaf? Akili Smith was taken 1 pick after McNabb so a little more tanking and you have a pro bowl QB.

Marinovich was pick 24 when the first round was 27 picks. Isn’t that the opposite of tanking?

What a terrible list. I hope you didn’t spend long on it. 

The point was that projected consensus number 1s (and 2s 3s etc) are not sure fire HOFers. 
 

Trashing a season for a kid who is CFB shiny is like hope. 
 

AKA not a strategy 

[Basbear]

23 minutes ago, stbugs said:

We are 18-41 the past four years. Let’s not act like we haven’t already trashed four years in a row.

You can’t look at one individual because there’s no guarantees and no one is saying we will be guaranteed to hit. It’s like Tom Brady. I’ll give you every 4th-7th round QB every draft and I’ll take the first one selected and I’ll likely win every year. The first QB may not be the best, you never know but the better pick l you have leads to:

1. Having your choice of more QBs. Again, we have to make the right pick but Houston knew you trade up for Watson (massages aside), KC knew to trade up for Mahomes, Buffalo knew you trade up for Allen and Baltimore took Jackson. Cleveland, Bears, NYJ, Washington (Haskins) and Giants (Jones). I don’t want to say it’s obvious but the staffs that made the right pick seem like the ones you’d expect to make the right call.

2. You don’t have to blow a lot of picks to trade up. Jacksonville spent their 1st round pick on Lawrence, nothing more. Same with Cincy and Burrow. Chicago gave up pick 5 or 7 this year in addition to their 1st in 2021 and 2 more picks. SF gave up a poo ton to get Lance. It helps being able to just use your pick, especially if you pick the wrong person. If Lance doesn’t work out, SF screwed the pooch because they could have added some serious talent around Jimmy G.

Yea, its very easy to fug up a QB pick.

My main worry is Tepper........if hes got blood-shot eyes that are dead set on picking a QB.....rip carolina panthers. Funny enough it was money of allllllllllll things that made him pass on watson......after years of telling people he'd be a panther. 

I dont mind a little force to get your "QB", just hate the bear&49er method cause its leaves no chance at a out....it MUST work...