Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

I understand what you are saying. I do.

The OP is trying to figure out the probability of drafting comparable players and profit.

Without doing A LOT of leg work the Pro Bowl data is the best surrogate I found for drafted players. If you want to tick things up or down a few percentage points to account for "not actually making a Pro Bowl", go for it. But as I already mentioned WRs make the Pro Bowl far less often than the 44% I already used.

The pro bowl is a dumb way to measure these types of things and in no way validate that we shouldnt have done the deals esp Burns.  I mean for fugs sake Gilmore made the pro bowl last year and he didnt even play half a season. 

[Tr3ach]

49 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

This first part of this was addressed. Look at page 2.

Salary or more accurately cap space is an interesting dimension brought up by many. I just don't know how to value it. In a money ball sense you are paying for production (over replacement) not just warm bodies, but what are the chances that level of production even exists in FA. If they did why would anyone trade for a DJ or Burns?

Players that have that much projected productivity don't tend to hit FA. Instead you are paying for band-aids and projects which will likely cost more in the long run (see our recent QB history).

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

Burns hasn't had a season with double digit sacks yet.  I have no idea and I would have to look into it but I would assume there are pass rushing specialist defensive ends and olb that average >9 sacks a season available as free agents almost every season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/defensive-end//

 

looks like it

[poundaway]

23 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

Now do the same for the McCaffrey trade. 

Exactly.

DJ Moore is not probowler and tho Burns has earned one, his stats aren't spectacular. 

Its funny how the same people that bitched and complained constantly about Burn's inability to handle the run are the same ones worshiping Fit for turning away 1st round picks for him.

The Fit fluffers are out in force.

"Rhule's GM is the future!  The man is a genius!"

[frankw]

At this point I wish we made the deal just to see people get their wish and inevitably flip flop when they see how awful the pass rush will be and complain about how long it's taking just to see the first pick from the trade have his name called.

[stratocatter]

And I guess those parameters allow a player to be called Pro Bowl, if they make it a single time and never again. Counts the same as a perennial pro bowler.