Probability Analysis of the Burns and DJ decision

[Sgt Schultz]

20 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Fwiw, it took us so long and so many draft picks to get a solid receiver who is not a head case and can stay healthy, that it surprises me how many are willing to let him go for a couple of draft picks. 

  

That is one of the major reasons I was not in favor of dealing DJ away.  I remember going into every draft with our first need being WR.  It may be again at some point even with DJ, but in the "old days" we didn't even have one on the roster to point to.

[Toomers]

10 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

 

Burns is under team control for 3 more seasons (5th year + 2 franchise tags). At any point in the next year they can still trade him for those Rams picks. It's not like they have been (or will be) spent.

Sure. Until he holds out this Spring. Especially when they just told his agent how valuable you think he is. You think he’s going to happily play on tags when he is going to want 25M/yr(or more now) and somewhere around 60M guaranteed. 
 
    Ask your dice this…. What package looks better. Credit to stbugs
 
   Edge like Reddick for 15Myr

   FA C or MLB or TE for 10-12M/yr. 

    Two 1sts almost sure to be top 16. 
  
    2nd round pick. 
 

     Or

    BUrns for 25-27M/yr

 

 

[mrcompletely11]

2 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

• We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
• Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
• A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
• A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Finally have a chance to dig through this.  A few thoughts here.  While I appreciate your work I dont think it makes sense simply to say a trade is worth it based on pro bowl alone.  Seems a bit arbitrary at best.  But say we do grade it like you want then as we mentioned Moore is not a pro bowler so that trade flips. 

 

Also in your analysis you dont take into account salary/contract structure, value of draft picks to move up/down in draft or how those picks translate.  I agree what you put together is at least something to try and be objective about whether we should have or shouldnt have but its not even close to the full picture.    And to nitpick even more you could easily argue that the pro bowl is similar to the nba all star where the fans dictate a large deciding factor on who makes it so its a bit subjective as well.  I mean Gilmore made the pro bowl last year and didnt even play half the season so its probably not a fair measurement either way.

[Aussie Tank]

22 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Sure. Until he holds out this Spring. Especially when they just told his agent how valuable you think he is. You think he’s going to happily play on tags when he is going to want 25M/yr(or more now) and somewhere around 60M guaranteed. 
 
    Ask your dice this…. What package looks better. Credit to stbugs
 
   Edge like Reddick for 15Myr

   FA C or MLB or TE for 10-12M/yr. 

    Two 1sts almost sure to be top 16. 
  
    2nd round pick. 
 

     Or

    BUrns for 25-27M/yr

 

 

Hit the nail on the head 

[Skack25]

2 hours ago, Evil Hurney said:

There's been a lot of digital ink spilled over the non-trades of Brian Burns and DJ Moore. The alleged total compensation was 3 1st-round picks and 1 2nd-round pick for the pair. I was curious what probability said regarding the decision.

Assumptions:

• We can spend all the picks at the same time and neglect the year of the draft pick (some were way off in the future making them less valuable)
• Burns and DJ are considered Pro Bowl caliber players; Note that I didn't say All Pro, which is a higher bar
• A 1st round pick becomes a Pro Bowler 44% of the time; Keep in mind WRs and DL have been shown to hit at a much lower rate
• A 2nd round pick becomes a Pro Bower 18% of the time

Background:

I am going to model this using a probability tree where we are essentially rolling a dice for each pick. We have 3 dice weighted for a 1st-round pick (44% success) and 1 dice weighted for a 2nd-round pick (18% success). Once we have 2 success we stop rolling and collect the profit (the extra picks).

Results:

Takeaway:

Within this context the Panthers made the right decision. They have a 41% chance of profiting off the trade (big or small gain) compared to a 52% chance of losing on the trade (big or small loss).

Magnificent.

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, Skack25 said:

Magnificent.

keep reading

[ForJimmy]

2 hours ago, Khaki Lackey said:

Of course we can easily find a DL replacement. Have we already forgotten how nicely Kony Ealy and Vernon Butler fell into place?

Everette Brown!

[ForJimmy]

Nice job with the research/analysis.  I'd prefer the trade for flexibility until we land our QB.  Using one or more of those picks to move up and possibly select a franchise QB is really hard to quantify IMO.  

[1of10Charnatives]

1 hour ago, Sir Purr said:

 I think we should trade all of our really good players for draft picks so we have more chances to replace them with really good players.  The Huddle has convinced me that this is the way.

To be fair, one factor in the thinking here that is part of the equation but rarely gets discussed is the value of really good players on cheap rookie deals. Having a young high performing QB on a rookie deal in particular provides you with so much value at so little cost it's almost a cheat code because of the way it lets you load up your roster elsewhere.

If the Chargers don't win a SB or at the least come close in the next few years before they have to sign Herbert to an extension, it will be an indictment of their FO's ability to capitalize.

Should everyone be traded away willy nilly, even in a rebuild? 

No.

[Waldo]

Ellis' podcast went in to that trade then players that went in the draft with Burns' production being absolutely replaceable and overvalued by the Panthers/fans. That was the kind of trade that isn't often seen and we won't get nearly that much if we do end up shipping him off on his 5th year option or tag. That fact it could have put us in reach to snag our QB of choice without crippling our future is a no brainer with that 2nd. It just sounds like what Hurney said about Burns is still being thrown around in house and it's just not true yet and I'm not sure it ever will be. If he signs his new deal at those projected #s then we will be screaming to dump him in less than 3 years unless we go to a 3-4 and he is putting up the kind of production that justifies the contract he is expecting after hearing what another team valued him at...even if they were braindead to offer that for him. 

Moore I get though that GB pick could be a top 10 pick but his cap hit is hard to trade this year. 

Neither one is good enough to be untouchable. Sorry but it's true and I like both as players. 

[thunderraiden]

3 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Good work explaining what cooler heads have been saying. (Not that I expect the rabble rousers to accept this either)

I've been saying the whole time that one or two more picks in the top 50 would have got it done. Its not about not trading them, its about value.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Waldo said:

Ellis' podcast went in to that trade then players that went in the draft with Burns' production being absolutely replaceable and overvalued by the Panthers/fans. That was the kind of trade that isn't often seen and we won't get nearly that much if we do end up shipping him off on his 5th year option or tag. That fact it could have put us in reach to snag our QB of choice without crippling our future is a no brainer with that 2nd. It just sounds like what Hurney said about Burns is still being thrown around in house and it's just not true yet and I'm not sure it ever will be. If he signs his new deal at those projected #s then we will be screaming to dump him in less than 3 years unless we go to a 3-4 and he is putting up the kind of production that justifies the contract he is expecting after hearing what another team valued him at...even if they were braindead to offer that for him. 

Moore I get though that GB pick could be a top 10 pick but his cap hit is hard to trade this year. 

Neither one is good enough to be untouchable. Sorry but it's true and I like both as players. 

Ellis' podcast is a must listen.  Every week.  He and billy give very unbiased takes good and bad about this franchise.  In that podcast you are referring they stop short of talking about fitt and catch themselves before they seemingly give up some nuggets on the situation.   But yeah their going through this trade is worth the listen alone

[Waldo]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Ellis' podcast is a must listen.  Every week.  He and billy give very unbiased takes good and bad about this franchise.  In that podcast you are referring they stop short of talking about fitt and catch themselves before they seemingly give up some nuggets on the situation.   But yeah their going through this trade is worth the listen alone

Even when I don't agree with them they add value to the total conversation and I love it. It's been a light in these dark times. They nailed this one and they did pull up short. 

We traded CMC and got better because we have had no one that could use him correctly (the bonus for him is he found that now). We haven't with Burns either IMO and adding a giant contract to that equation isn't going to make anything better lol. 

[T-Wazzle]

Should have traded them and selected nothing but quarterbacks with the picks