Offers for Burns

[45catfan]

4 minutes ago, joemac said:

What makes you think both firsts for Burns would be in this coming draft? Isn’t there only 1 or 2 teams with multiple firsts this year? Texans and Eagles?

Jut hopeful and it could happen (Philly) but yeah, likely split between the 2023 and 2024 draft.  If it did happen, though?!?!  I take a 3 day vacation for the draft and throw a party!

Edited October 23, 2022 by 45catfan

[joemac]

2 minutes ago, Shotgun said:

what are we now?

We’re the Cleveland Indians from Major League, before they decide to get their poo together.

[Martin]

4 minutes ago, joemac said:

What makes you think both firsts for Burns would be in this coming draft? Isn’t there only 1 or 2 teams with multiple firsts this year? Texans and Eagles?

I also think it is one this year and one next year from a very good team, so it is two late first rounders spread over two years. I wouldn’t take that either if I was Fitt.

[1of10Charnatives]

Just now, Catsfan69 said:

The pass rusher you keep averages a sack a game. Historically that's about where the greats are.

Smith, Jones, Peppers, Greene, that's elite.

Hell just in our franchise Burns is 8th

1.Peppers 

2.Greene

3.Lathan

4.Hardy

5.Reddick

6.Johnson 

8.Burns/Rucker

So your premise is that only HOF worthy pass rushers are worth keeping? Your post doesn't explicitly state this but it seems implied. Do SB champion teams always have HOF worthy pass rushers, or do they often have multiple outstanding but not HOF worthy pass rushers? 

Two starting pass rushers who each produce 10 sacks have an advantage over the HOFer who hits for 20. First, it's far easier to get your hands on that than the HOFer, second, injury risk means you're not all or nothing. If your HOFer gets bit by the injury bug in a violent game, your pass rush doesn't simply evaporate.

Pointing out that Burns, just entering his prime, is only 8th on our franchise sack leader list, directly comparing him to retired players who played full careers is just not apples to apples.  This is Peppers and Greene. The next 3 players on your list had high sack per game numbers but played only a few seasons during their prime for us. The last two are interesting. I'd bet you dollars to donuts that if you checked Johnson and Ruckers sacks per game numbers at the same point in their careers Burns is at now, he would outperform them. 

Burns clearly has holes in his game, especially playing the run, and a propensity to fail to bring down QB's in his grasp, but his ceiling is obviously higher than grinders like Johnson and Rucker when it comes to pass rushing. I think you deal Burns if he doesn't want to stay, but if he does, you keep him because of the difficulty in replacing him.  Only about 15 to 20 players per season hit the level of production he's currently hitting, and his numbers can clearly go up.

[top dawg]

Just now, jackson113 said:

Don't think the Burns trade gets done... Wished we could've kept Reddick...

Reddick didn't want to be here. Between Burns and Reddick, Burns was always the keeper.

[CPcavedweller]

17 hours ago, Riverboat Ron said:

Imagine getting both the Eagles picks in 2023. One of them is that Saints pick and if they were to suck as bad as they look we might end up with a 1 and 2 of CJ Stroud and Will Anderson.

CJ Stroud, the Ohio State QB? They tend to flame out in the NFL. Give me Grayson McCall. Take Will Anderson and the top OT in the 1st.

[joemac]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Jut hopeful and it could happen (Philly) but yeah, likely split between the 2023 and 2024 draft.  If it did happen, though?!?!  I take a 3 day vacation for the draft and throw a party!

Oh hell yeah. If that did happen it would be cause for celebration. However that’s probably not in the cards unfortunately. It would have to be Philly for 2 this year, as Houston is in the same boat as us, and it would make zero sense for them to make a move like that. But still, with any other team 2 firsts in back to back years would go a long way.

[CmC2k]

 

[ForJimmy]

14 minutes ago, La Pantera said:

Burns is a very good IMO. But he's yet to reach double digit sacks in a single season. I don't think he's worth top DE money. And that's exactly what he'll demand. 

That’s a reasonable, rational thought. I can agree with that. People calling him a JAG really don’t understand what they are talking about.

[Catsfan69]

2 minutes ago, Martin said:

I also think it is one this year and one next year from a very good team, so it is two late first rounders spread over two years. I wouldn’t take that either if I was Fitt.

You're nuts

[JVic]

Just now, top dawg said:

Reddick didn't want to be here. Between Burns and Reddick, Burns was always the keeper.

Issue will be whether Burns wants to be here when it comes time to make that decision.  As things stand now, I have to imagine he would want to go somewhere else with better culture and opportunities to win.  We are going to have to over pay him to keep him.  Trade him, take the picks and bank on one of those two being another defensive star.  Brian Burns isn't sexy to a new coach, even if he's an absolute stud, but two 1st round picks would be.  Have to start thinking long term, towards the future of franchise.   

[Catsfan69]

3 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

So your premise is that only HOF worthy pass rushers are worth keeping? Your post doesn't explicitly state this but it seems implied. Do SB champion teams always have HOF worthy pass rushers, or do they often have multiple outstanding but not HOF worthy pass rushers? 

Two starting pass rushers who each produce 10 sacks have an advantage over the HOFer who hits for 20. First, it's far easier to get your hands on that than the HOFer, second, injury risk means you're not all or nothing. If your HOFer gets bit by the injury bug in a violent game, your pass rush doesn't simply evaporate.

Pointing out that Burns, just entering his prime, is only 8th on our franchise sack leader list, directly comparing him to retired players who played full careers is just not apples to apples.  This is Peppers and Greene. The next 3 players on your list had high sack per game numbers but played only a few seasons during their prime for us. The last two are interesting. I'd bet you dollars to donuts that if you checked Johnson and Ruckers sacks per game numbers at the same point in their careers Burns is at now, he would outperform them. 

Burns clearly has holes in his game, especially playing the run, and a propensity to fail to bring down QB's in his grasp, but his ceiling is obviously higher than grinders like Johnson and Rucker when it comes to pass rushing. I think you deal Burns if he doesn't want to stay, but if he does, you keep him because of the difficulty in replacing him.  Only about 15 to 20 players per season hit the level of production he's currently hitting, and his numbers can clearly go up.

I didn't say sack leader list.

That's just a list of our best pass rushers skill wise.

He will never crack the top 5.

He's no Lathon Greene Peppers. He's just not that good.

There's probably 15 guys in the NFL I'd rather have than Burns.

He's literally like the 17th best at his position in the NFL.

He's not that good and I don't know why you guys are so enamored with him.

[Tbe]

1 minute ago, JVic said:

Issue will be whether Burns wants to be here when it comes time to make that decision.  As things stand now, I have to imagine he would want to go somewhere else with better culture and opportunities to win.  We are going to have to over pay him to keep him.  Trade him, take the picks and bank on one of those two being another defensive star.  Brian Burns isn't sexy to a new coach, even if he's an absolute stud, but two 1st round picks would be.  Have to start thinking long term, towards the future of franchise.   

Yeah, this is the main motivation to trade him if true.

Better to get multiple picks now than watch him walk or have to overpay him later.

[top dawg]

2 minutes ago, JVic said:

Issue will be whether Burns wants to be here when it comes time to make that decision.  As things stand now, I have to imagine he would want to go somewhere else with better culture and opportunities to win.  We are going to have to over pay him to keep him.  Trade him, take the picks and bank on one of those two being another defensive star.  Brian Burns isn't sexy to a new coach, even if he's an absolute stud, but two 1st round picks would be.  Have to start thinking long term, towards the future of franchise.   

True, he may just split. But, I would take the two first round picks...just not right away; I'd hold out until closer to the deadline to see if they won't sweeten the offer, or for a better one.