"Fire Sale" not happening

[ForJimmy]

3 minutes ago, frankw said:

Yeah let's keep him for a rookie so we can see another head coach get fired for trying to sustain an offense built around McCaffrey accounting for 80% of the offense.

If the new HC wants to use him for 80% of our offense he deserves to be fired. 

[frankw]

16 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

If the new HC wants to use him for 80% of our offense he deserves to be fired. 

I mean it's what's going to happen if he's healthy we know it we can lie to ourselves but we've seen it with three coaches. At what point do you start to pull your hair out and say okay let's build a real sustainable offense?

[Jaxel]

They won't move him unless they get at minimum a first and change. And tbh that is exactly the way they should play it.

[SCO96]

15 hours ago, UNCrules2187 said:

Well considering he's only 26 years old and barely has any wear on him for the past two years, yeah I think he will be productive when we're back in the playoffs. As teams like the Giants and Dolphins are showing, all you need is the right combination of coaching staff and decent QB play to be one year away from playoff contention.  

And, it' not like we play in top tier division. The NFC South is weak this year. Brady and the Bucs look average so far. The Saints and Falcons certainly aren't among the elite teams in the NFC. If we had a HC in the mold of Andy Reid, Sean McVey, Sean Peyton...and gave him a good, not even great, QB...I believe we could take our division next year, especially if Brady walks away from Tampa at the end of the season.

Edited October 19, 2022 by SCO96

[UNCrules2187]

Joe Person put out an article in the Athletic this morning where he asked the beat writers from the 49ers, Bills, and Rams to submit offers for CMC. Here’s what they suggested:

 

49ers: 2023 compensatory 3rd, 2023 4th

Bills: 2023 2nd and Zack Moss OR 2023 3rd and James Cook

Rams: 2023 2nd, 2024 3rd

Person’s reaction?

Not blown away by those offers, so pass on a trade if that’s what’s out there  

 

[SCO96]

50 minutes ago, frankw said:

I mean it's what's going to happen if he's healthy we know it we can lie to ourselves but we've seen it with three coaches. At what point do you start to pull your hair out and say okay let's build a real sustainable offense?

You've seen it with 3 defensive minded head coaches. Our last one Ron Rivera exposed Cam to too many hits and became overly reliant on him. When Cam went down he repeated the cycle with Christian. 

Based on what we're hearing, it appears Tepper want to hire an offensive minded guy. Any coordinator with a minimal football IQ realizes you can't rely on 1 player to produce 80% of your offense. If we get an offensive minded HC and find him a QB I can pretty much assure you more players will be integrated into the game plan each week. Can you imagine how much better we'd be if actually got a true pass catching TE on the field, or better developed either of the 3 that we currently have?

If we go defensive minded again, then I think your assessment will unfortunately be dead on.

Edited October 19, 2022 by SCO96

[MHS831]

Here is how I see it:  A RBs production (on average) tends to start a downward slope around age 27.  CMC has been banged up.  Will he last until he is 29 at this rate?  If he is relevant when we are not, he may be better off traded.  I love CMC, and I hope he has a long career, but I do not see this offense (without a QB) as a year away--I see it as 2-3 years away. 

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, frankw said:

I mean it's what's going to happen if he's healthy we know it we can lie to ourselves but we've seen it with three coaches. At what point do you start to pull your hair out and say okay let's build a real sustainable offense?

Yeah 3 terrible offensive coaches who got fired. 

[Jaxel]

46 minutes ago, UNCrules2187 said:

Joe Person put out an article in the Athletic this morning where he asked the beat writers from the 49ers, Bills, and Rams to submit offers for CMC. Here’s what they suggested:

 

49ers: 2023 compensatory 3rd, 2023 4th

Bills: 2023 2nd and Zack Moss OR 2023 3rd and James Cook

Rams: 2023 2nd, 2024 3rd

Person’s reaction?

Not blown away by those offers, so pass on a trade if that’s what’s out there  

 

Beat writers will always make offers that favor their team, I don't think these often reflect reality.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Jaxel

[SCO96]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Here is how I see it:  A RBs production (on average) tends to start a downward slope around age 27.  CMC has been banged up.  Will he last until he is 29 at this rate?  If he is relevant when we are not, he may be better off traded.  I love CMC, and I hope he has a long career, but I do not see this offense (without a QB) as a year away--I see it as 2-3 years away. 

Years ago there was a website that actually study the rate of decline in RB's. I haven't read it in quite some time but the findings were interesting. Here is what I remember. Removing significant injuries from the equation (Terrell Davis, Gale Sayers, etc), the decline is not primarily based on age, but the number of carries that a back receives. 

Guys like Eddie George and Eddie George were true studs when they first hit the league. But after year 5 there was a noticeable drop in production, especially ypc. Guys who didn't reach 300 carries per year had longer careers and were more productive into their 30's than guys who routinely hit the 300-350 mark early in their careers.

Guys like Jerome Bettis (5'11/250) and John Riggins (6'2/240)were outliers. Their physical makeup and strong lower bodies allowed them to endure hits better than most backs and both could still bring it well past the age of 30. Riggins actually rushed for more yards in his 30's than he did in his 20's.

Christian has never had a 300 carry season. But, he has a lot of catches which sort of evens things  out.  However, he takes less punishment on the hits in the open field than he does running the ball between the tackles. He should be getting about 20 touches a game (carries and catches combined) and complemented by another back to aid the running game. He could probably easily play past 30 for 2 or 3 seasons if his work load was managed.

 

 

[frankw]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

Yeah 3 terrible offensive coaches who got fired. 

Wasn't Rhule supposed to be a little bit of both? It's why some of us were iffy right away when he went with an all defensive draft.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, frankw said:

Wasn't Rhule supposed to be a little bit of both? It's why some of us were iffy right away when he went with an all defensive draft.

Rhule turned out to be a lot of neither.

The defensive drafts were likely directed by Snow.

[ForJimmy]

9 minutes ago, frankw said:

Wasn't Rhule supposed to be a little bit of both? It's why some of us were iffy right away when he went with an all defensive draft.

Rhule was terrible and that’s why he is gone. If our new coach dies the same as him that’s a huge negative. 

[Snake]

14 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said: