Tanking does not guarantee a good QB

[ForJimmy]

4 minutes ago, Pimpdaddy said:

....agree... Delhomme would have really skewed the stats had he won a superbowl....nothing special undrafted... the other 10 guys supporting a qb are just as important to his success as are the quality of coaches and their philosophy..... love to see any of these top tier qbs play qb for us right now...just as an experiment.... we have to find our qb and I cant fault the coaches for parading in qbs over the last 3 years....pickens were slim...

I think we might actually be a good spot for a young QB providing we hire the right coach. We have a good young OL with a decent young defense. If we keep CMC he is a great for developing a young signal caller. Tremble, Marshall, and Shi are all young weapons and can develop with him plus Moore is a solid WR. 

[mrcompletely11]

37 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I think they just want a top pick. Number 1 picks often go to bad situations. I’m pretty certain we will have a top pick tanking or not. I also don’t see Wilks “tanking” this season.

I don't think he has a choice 

[ForJimmy]

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I don't think he has a choice 

You think we land the top pick? I think we are still going to win a couple, but stay in the top 10. That wouldn’t be “tanking” IMO.

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

You think we land the top pick? I think we are still going to win a couple, but stay in the top 10. That wouldn’t be “tanking” IMO.

Nah we aren't getting #1.   5ish

[saX man]

Say it with me:

WE ARE NOT TRYING TO TANK WE JUST SO HAPPEN TO BE ONE OF THE WORST TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE AND WILL BE IN POSITION TO TAKE A QB.  

 

[Jaxel]

Just now, saX man said:

Say it with me:

WE ARE NOT TRYING TO TANK WE JUST SO HAPPEN TO BE ONE OF THE WORST TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE AND WILL BE IN POSITION TO TAKE A QB.  

 

I agree here - Again, I would be thrilled if Wilks pulls us to something like 7-10 or 8-9. And I would still do whatever it takes to get a QB in the draft.

[SCO96]

43 minutes ago, stbugs said:

SMH. First, going with SB winners is just dumb. Did we make a mistake with Cam? Seems like we should have drafted a 6th round QB instead of Cam.

The Bills screwed the pooch taking Josh Allen at #7. They should have traded to pick #10 and taken Rosen. Based on your stats, Rosen will win a SB before Allen.

Also, the damn Nick Foles poo. Carson Wentz was a leader for the MVP that year and went 11-2. Foles and Wentz won that SB. Foles doesn’t win it if he’s the starter all year. Foles absolutely contributed but being the #1 seed changes a team’s odds to win.

No it's not dumb to go with SB winners. Many on this board think we have to draft inside the top 5 to get a QB capable of winning a SB. You wouldn't draft them that high or give up a slew of draft picks for any other reasons. The historical data shows that you do not. There were people who were upset that we didn't intentionally tank in 2020 to get Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft. Trevor is looking better now a better coach and better surrounding cast, but his 2021 season was not that impressive because his team and coach sucked. We didn't make mistake drafting Cam. He lived up to his position. He won a MVP award, took us to the playoffs 4 times, and 1 SB. But, he didn't win a SB. In fact we only had 3 winning seasons with Cam. 

Your 2nd paragraph doesn't hold at all. You totally misunderstood what I was trying to say in the post. Some years the guys available at those draft slots really aren't good enough to merit a selection in the top 10. If a guy is good take him. If not, don't reach.

Carson Wentz looks terrible now. Some think he may be on his last starting job in the NFL. He was great in 2017, but hasn't been the same since. Nick Foles played well in the playoffs and SB  because he had a good team around him...and good coaching! The next season Foles took the Eagles to the playoffs again when Wentz go hurt. Wentz is a #1 pick he was let go from Indy after 1 season, and Ron Rivera pretty much threw him under the bus this week. Although he does have a point about poor QB play in Washington this year. Jalen Hurts, Cooper Rush, and Daniel Jones were all drafted lower than Wentz in the draft, but he's quarterbacking the team in last place in the NFC East while the other 3 all have winning records

Edited October 14, 2022 by SCO96

[WUnderhill]

21 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

. I went back to 2000 just so we could use the 21st century as a our benchmark

2021 Matt Stafford (#1 pick first round)---not his original team. Never won a playoff game with Detroit

2020 Tom Brady (#6)

2019 Pat Mahomes (#10)

2018 Tom Brady (6th round)

2017 Nick Foles (3rd round)

2016 Tom Brady (6th round)

2015 Peyton Manning (1st pick, 1st round)

2014 Tom Brady (6th round)

2013 Russel Wilson (3rd round)

2012 Joe Flacco (1st round, pick 18)

2011 Eli Manning (#1 pick, 1st round)

2010 Aaron Rodgers (#1 , pick 24)

2009 Drew Brees (pick 32, 2nd rounder in 2001)---not with the team that drafted him.

2008 Ben Rothlisberger (pick 11, 1st round)

2007 Eli Manning (pick 1, 1st round)

2006 Peyton Manning (pick 1, 1st round)

2005 Ben Rothlisberger (pick 11, 1st round)

2004 Tom Brady (6th round)

2003 Tom Brady (6th round)

2002 Brad Johnson (9th round 1992, would have been undrafted today)

2001 Tom Brady (6th round)

2000 Trent Dilfer (1st round, pick #6)

---

That stat about #1 QB's having 3x more SB wins is somewhat misleading.

Eli is the only # 1 in to win 2 SB's with the team that drafted him since 2000. Peyton got 1 title with Indy (2006). Peyton's 2nd SB (2015) was due to the effort of his defense that year. I don't think he threw for 150 yards our SB loss and had a INT. He was benched part of that season because an injury affected his ability to throw. The Denver team carried him, not the other way around. Stafford never won a playoff game in Detroit. He went to a stacked Rams team that had been to the SB 3 years earlier and lost because of an over drafted 1st round QB (Jared Goff) couldn't muster more than 3 points against the weakest Patriot team to ever win a Super Bowl.

The next highest drafted QB to win a SB was Trent Dilfer #6). He never won in Tampa and was shipped out to Baltimore. He won a SB with one of the all time great defenses in NFL history the 2000 Ravens. Once again, like Peyton Manning, a great defense carried him to a SB win. The Ravens thought so little of him that they replaced him as starter the year after he won a SB.

As you pointed out in your post, no only one other top 10 QB has won a SB (Mahomes)

Big Ben is the only 1st rounder QB  besides Eli to win 2 SB's with the team that drafted him and he was drafted outside of the top 10 (#11).

No one has a problems taking a QB in the first round if he falls to you in the draft, or if you can make a fair trade to move up to get him w/out mortgaging the team's future. My problem is with the people who feel that we must "tank" to get a 1st or 2nd draft spot to ensure a QB selection, even if the quality of QB's available isn't particularly good.

No QB since 2000 drafted at  #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, or #9 has won a Super Bowl. Tom Brady's dominance has certainly skewed things. But, he is living proof that a QB doesn't have to be a first rounder to have success in the league. Great teams when SB's when they have good/great QB play. A top 5 pick on a bad team won't win, just look at Lawrence in 2021.

Yeah nobody is saying a QB wins without a team around him, good coaching, etc. The stat about #1 QBs having 3x more SBs is not misleading, it is exactly what it is. The only reason you think it is misleading is if you have a narrative that it challenges, in which case you’ll find ways to say it’s misleading and they don’t count because trades or some other bullshit. Of course you don’t consider the value of what the teams got in the trades either.
I see you also changed the data set for no real reason. I went back 20 years and there wasn’t a #1 QB that won the SB for years from my starting point, I didn’t cherry pick some data set that best fit my narrative. Why not start in 2006 when the rule changes really started to favor QBs? Why not make it an even 25 years to include Elway? Not that it matters, you’d make an excuse to explain it away, like you even want to try to get Brad Johnson in there as “undrafted today”, lol like me including him as pick 200 something just isn’t good enough.
So sick of talking with your crowd. You are constantly arguing in bad faith, from the basis of one or the other, either or, there’s never the basic assumption that we’re all Panthers fans and want a good TEAM with good coaches etc. PLUS a franchise QB. Constantly arguing on the basis of EXCEPTIONS like Tom Brady. Of course there are exceptions, of course you can strike gold outside of the first round, but that is not a good STRATEGY. Since we tanked (Yes, JR and John Fox 100% tanked that season) and drafted Cam Newton #1 (don’t see you complaining about that one) we’ve also drafted Will Grier and Matt Corral in the 3rd rd, brought in PJ Walker (undrafted, remember you CAN get lucky and win with undrafted QBs so he should be good enough right?), Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, attempted to trade for Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson, DIDN’T trade up for Justin Herbert even though our GM really wanted him, etc. Where are we today? Maybe it’s time to be honest with where we’re at as a franchise. You never say what you think is going to be gained by winning 4-5 games as opposed to 1-3. Or do you think PJ Walker is about to take the team on a run through the toughest part of the schedule right after we fire our HC?

[poundaway]

12 hours ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

Most QBs taken high in the last 10 years have been busts. Just play for the wins. 

No it doesn't.  But it guarantees substantially more draft capital throughout the entire draft.

[NJPanthers12]

8 hours ago, Beast_3000 said:

Nah competitive losses would be better. It’s hard to turn a fan base back in your favor if we continually get embarrassed beyond any hope or repair. I want a top quarterback out of this draft too. I just don’t want irreparable damage to our squad. 

Disagree with this fully.

real fans will never leave and are smart enough to realize what needs to happen. Fair-weather fans will be the first ones back when this team starts winning again. The only thing that will cause irreparable damages is staying status quo and playing musical chairs with god awful quarterbacks. The true fans will lose their passion and walk away. We were seeing that with Matt Rhule.

believe me. Getting destroyed every game the rest of this season will not kill this franchise. My fellow fans from the beginning have been through a ton with this franchise and are still here.

If we can make it through Rae Carruth, the Fred Lane tragedy, The Kerry Collins drama, the Sean Gilbert trade, George Seifert, losing 15 games in a row, Marty Hurney 1.0, Steve Smith punching Ken Lucas, the John Fox lame duck year, Jerry Richardson punting a season for the good of the shield, Andrew Luck spurning the Panthers and going back to college, Gettleman cutting Steve Smith, Getttleman rescinding the franchise tag from Josh Norman, Jerry Richardson bringing back the idiot Marty Hurney, Greg Hardy, Jerry Richardson being a creep trying to shave employees legs, the absurd treatment of Cam Newton and cutting him, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfiled, and the entire Matt Rhule era then we will al survive tanking the rest of this season.

[Panthers Fan 69]

11 minutes ago, poundaway said:

No it doesn't.  But it guarantees substantially more draft capital throughout the entire draft.

True, however that needs lots of moving parts to go right just to get a desired outcome. It’s like hitting a 5 team parlay. Just doesn’t happen. Too many factors. 

[Panthers Fan 69]

56 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I think we might actually be a good spot for a young QB providing we hire the right coach. We have a good young OL with a decent young defense. If we keep CMC he is a great for developing a young signal caller. Tremble, Marshall, and Shi are all young weapons and can develop with him plus Moore is a solid WR. 

Tremble shi and Marshall are jags. Take the rose collared glasses off. Most teams would have those guys as backups. 

[santiagomn8]

We trade away CMC for the Bills 1st. We Trade Moore to the ravens for a 2nd and their back up quarterback Huntley (Jackson Lite). We draft BPA in the draft hopefully pass Rusher and OLine help with Bills Pick. Hire Greg Roman in the off-season and play great defense and a Ravens-Lite Offense to get us back competitive. And start building a good franchise. Who says No?

[poundaway]

2 minutes ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

True, however that needs lots of moving parts to go right just to get a desired outcome. It’s like hitting a 5 team parlay. Just doesn’t happen. Too many factors. 

Yes, we chose the only HC on staff who has successfully done it before.

The next way to help ensure it is to sell off pieces.    The problem is that the interim we chose currently is suing the NFL for setting up black coaches to fail...so I think that door is closed.  Keeping the OC was a step in the right direction for a tank tho.  ST and D, the performing units, were the only ones to see staff changes.