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Tanking does not guarantee a good QB

Panthers Fan 69

By Panthers Fan 69,
in Carolina Panthers

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

Nothing guarantees anything, here’s some actual data.

# of super bowl winning QBs by pick in the past 20 years:

#1 - 3 Super Bowl Winning QBs

#10 - 1

#11 - 1

#18 - 1

#24 - 1

#32 - 1

#75 - 1

#88 - 1

#199 - 1

#227 - 1

The #1 pick has produced 3x more Super Bowl winning QBs than any other individual pick. Additionally, 3 other #1 overall picks, a #2 overall pick, and a #3 overall pick all played in Super Bowls over that same period and lost. 10 of the past 20 Super Bowls have featured at least one QB picked in the top 3 overall picks.

. I went back to 2000 just so we could use the 21st century as a our benchmark

2021 Matt Stafford (#1 pick first round)---not his original team. Never won a playoff game with Detroit

2020 Tom Brady (#6)

2019 Pat Mahomes (#10)

2018 Tom Brady (6th round)

2017 Nick Foles (3rd round)

2016 Tom Brady (6th round)

2015 Peyton Manning (1st pick, 1st round)

2014 Tom Brady (6th round)

2013 Russel Wilson (3rd round)

2012 Joe Flacco (1st round, pick 18)

2011 Eli Manning (#1 pick, 1st round)

2010 Aaron Rodgers (#1 , pick 24)

2009 Drew Brees (pick 32, 2nd rounder in 2001)---not with the team that drafted him.

2008 Ben Rothlisberger (pick 11, 1st round)

2007 Eli Manning (pick 1, 1st round)

2006 Peyton Manning (pick 1, 1st round)

2005 Ben Rothlisberger (pick 11, 1st round)

2004 Tom Brady (6th round)

2003 Tom Brady (6th round)

2002 Brad Johnson (9th round 1992, would have been undrafted today)

2001 Tom Brady (6th round)

2000 Trent Dilfer (1st round, pick #6)

---

That stat about #1 QB's having 3x more SB wins is somewhat misleading.

Eli is the only # 1 in to win 2 SB's with the team that drafted him since 2000. Peyton got 1 title with Indy (2006). Peyton's 2nd SB (2015) was due to the effort of his defense that year. I don't think he threw for 150 yards our SB loss and had a INT. He was benched part of that season because an injury affected his ability to throw. The Denver team carried him, not the other way around. Stafford never won a playoff game in Detroit. He went to a stacked Rams team that had been to the SB 3 years earlier and lost because of an over drafted 1st round QB (Jared Goff) couldn't muster more than 3 points against the weakest Patriot team to ever win a Super Bowl.

The next highest drafted QB to win a SB was Trent Dilfer #6). He never won in Tampa and was shipped out to Baltimore. He won a SB with one of the all time great defenses in NFL history the 2000 Ravens. Once again, like Peyton Manning, a great defense carried him to a SB win. The Ravens thought so little of him that they replaced him as starter the year after he won a SB.

As you pointed out in your post, no only one other top 10 QB has won a SB (Mahomes)

Big Ben is the only 1st rounder QB  besides Eli to win 2 SB's with the team that drafted him and he was drafted outside of the top 10 (#11).

No one has a problems taking a QB in the first round if he falls to you in the draft, or if you can make a fair trade to move up to get him w/out mortgaging the team's future. My problem is with the people who feel that we must "tank" to get a 1st or 2nd draft spot to ensure a QB selection, even if the quality of QB's available isn't particularly good.

No QB since 2000 drafted at  #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, or #9 has won a Super Bowl. Tom Brady's dominance has certainly skewed things. But, he is living proof that a QB doesn't have to be a first rounder to have success in the league. Great teams when SB's when they have good/great QB play. A top 5 pick on a bad team won't win, just look at Lawrence in 2021.

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

Posted
Posted
Just now, rippadonn said:

The Op is right you know. Bottom feeder teams are always in position to draft "the best QB" and what happens?

Jets, Dolphins?

The last SB was between two number 1 picks.  Cam was the best thing to happen to our franchise as a number 1 pick.  Get the number 1 pick right and develop him and you have some stability.  Never draft a QB and at best you are the Colts.  

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rippadonn Grand Master

rippadonn

Posted
Posted
Just now, ForJimmy said:

The last SB was between two number 1 picks.  Cam was the best thing to happen to our franchise as a number 1 pick.  Get the number 1 pick right and develop him and you have some stability.  Never draft a QB and at best you are the Colts.  

If Trevor had Sean McVay?! You need both.

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, rippadonn said:

If Trevor had Sean McVay?! You need both.

Absolutely.  You need a good coach and supporting cast to develop your QB.  Stafford just showed what a difference that can make.  The constant playoff threats GB, KC, Balt, Buff typically have a 1st round QB paired with a good coach and team.  Once Herbert gets a good coach LAC will be in the mix as well.  

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Panthers Fan 69 Grand Master

Panthers Fan 69

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Absolutely.  You need a good coach and supporting cast to develop your QB.  Stafford just showed what a difference that can make.  The constant playoff threats GB, KC, Balt, Buff typically have a 1st round QB paired with a good coach and team.  Once Herbert gets a good coach LAC will be in the mix as well.  

Correct. But none of those guys went number 1.  Heck, most went outside of the top 5. People want to tank for that first pick to get a qb. You don’t have to do that. 

Edited by Panthers Fan 69
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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

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Posted
Just now, Panthers Fan 69 said:

Correct. But none of those guys went number 1.  Heck, most went outside of the top 5. People want to tank for that first pick to get a qb. You don’t have to do that. 

I think they just want a top pick. Number 1 picks often go to bad situations. I’m pretty certain we will have a top pick tanking or not. I also don’t see Wilks “tanking” this season.

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Panthers Fan 69 Grand Master

Panthers Fan 69

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I think they just want a top pick. Number 1 picks often go to bad situations. I’m pretty certain we will have a top pick tanking or not. I also don’t see Wilks “tanking” this season.

Facts. Wilks is no quitter. He is an app state guy 

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Panthers Fan 69 Grand Master

Panthers Fan 69

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2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Also to the posts about QBs with multiple SB wins.  Tom Brady is the only active one and he had a HoF coach for a chunk of them (and he will be retired next year).  Big Ben also has a HoF coach.  It's very rare to have a QB with more than 1 these days.

And Eli as well.  Something tells me Mahomes and Reed will have another one. 

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Pimpdaddy Grand Master

Pimpdaddy

Posted
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9 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Absolutely.  You need a good coach and supporting cast to develop your QB.  Stafford just showed what a difference that can make.  The constant playoff threats GB, KC, Balt, Buff typically have a 1st round QB paired with a good coach and team.  Once Herbert gets a good coach LAC will be in the mix as well.  

....agree... Delhomme would have really skewed the stats had he won a superbowl....nothing special undrafted... the other 10 guys supporting a qb are just as important to his success as are the quality of coaches and their philosophy..... love to see any of these top tier qbs play qb for us right now...just as an experiment.... we have to find our qb and I cant fault the coaches for parading in qbs over the last 3 years....pickens were slim...

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