Baker is Telegraphing his throws

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I'm just some jackass on the internet who works in data and I noticed this. Imagine who in the NFL with their trained eyes has also seen this?

Like, for example, our own coaching staff?

[mrcompletely11]

41 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

This dude Baker got beef with someone in every game we play it seems like

 

Just like we said since the trade, the dude is an immature child

 

What the fug was rhule and fitt thinking?

[trueblade]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

What the fug was rhule and fitt thinking?

After mini-camps: "oh poo, we can't go into the season with these guys as our only QBs [would have been Darnold, PJ and Corral at the time.]"

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, trueblade said:

After mini-camps: "oh poo, we can't go into the season with these guys as our only QBs [would have been Darnold, PJ and Corral at the time.]"

so trying to fix one mistake by making another.  Classic panthers

Edited October 6, 2022 by mrcompletely11

[PeteRozelle]

13 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

New strategy. Have Baker pump fake to get Bosa in the air in which Icky can punch him square in the nuts on the first play of the game.

 

He would still find a way to f it up.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by PeteRozelle

[AlphabetsEnd]

18 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

TL;DR

Baker Mayfield telegraphs his throws by raising the ball up roughly 6 inches before he begins his throwing motion. This increases his time to throw from the average 11/12 frames up to 17/18 frames, slowing his delivery down up to 40% on any given play. This would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, jump up, and bat a ball down.

Am I understanding your claim correctly, that the difference in throwing time between Mayfield and "average" is 6-7 frames?  And your conclusion is that this 40% "this would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, Jump up and bat a ball down" as opposed to other QBs without this supposed "tell." 

Is your frame rate 24, 30, or 60? 8 frame quicktime movie from the mid 90s?  Youtube's standard frame rate is 24-60 fps. 

Regardless, going with slowest frame rate (24) those 6-7 additional frames is at most 1/4 of a second, or 250 milliseconds. 17-18 frames is 3/4 of a second, or 750 milliseconds, for the full 17/18 frame full motion. In that time you are suggesting that a defensive player's brain allows it to recognize, slow its own momentum of the pass rush, reset body postion, jump up, and bat the ball, in what amounts to 750 milliseconds (+ time for ball to travel the few yards at upwards of 50-60 mph). Humanly possible, yes, but at the exclusion of other visual and tactile stimuli that are unfolding in pass rush/blocking situation, leaves me dubious and thinking it's not "the" reason this is happening. 

Trained athletes can react to visual stimulus in 200 milliseconds. This seems an accepted duration of time it takes for a human to start physical reaction to visual stimulus (sound is faster, interestingly). The time to stop and redirect bodily motion, identify trajectory and throw hands up, would require additional precious miliseconds. While it is humanly possible to throw an arm vertically in a half second, as studies have shown humans can react to a fall and catch themselves in this time frame of about 500 milliseconds, it would account for the remaining time before the throw is out of the QB's hands. Very narrow.

So, theoretically, it's possible if the D-lineman is fixated on the QB to pull this off but (a) that is hardly  "ample time" ---  to read Baker AND Jump up AND bat a ball down" and (b) the more salient issue is what is transpiring before the throwing motion (before the 17-18 frames) that would delay reaction or prolong action.. A defensive lineman is moving, defeating blockers, trying to maintain sightlines --all actions antithetical to stopping and redirecting attention and energy to pass deflection. 

Unless the frame rate you're viewing is strangely low, you're looking at upper limit human reactions, while rushing a passer, fending off a blocker, stopping and redirecting momentum, propelling 300 pounds upwards, while raising equally bulky limbs -- and all while maintaining consistent visual input on the QB and a rapidly accelerating projectile. More problematic, then also, is that the pass rusher's physical motion and momentum is directed forward and  against a resisting agent; unless they are already planning to jump because they have been made aware of a pass well earlier than the 750 miliseconds needed to react and act on the pass deflection -- without prior intent and readiness this seems a superhuman effort to pull off 5 times in a short span of a single game, this seems really fugging hard to pull off. 

All this tells me (pun!) is that...

If Mayfield has a tell (and he might) it's not this. It seems more likely that if his throwing motion is slowed by this "lift" you identify, it's reasonable that whatever actual tell is tipping defenders to the pass play called, that perhaps his "40%" slower release gives the lineman a superior chance to deflect, when the the actual, other tell or tip is recognized, thus allowing the rusher to set himself preemptively in the passing lane and start his jump when the QB sets to throw. The actual advantage then comes from 1) knowing  it's a passing play 2) knowing where the pass is going 3) knowing the timing of the throw from the snap 4) not overcommitting to rushing but instead setting up to deflect passes in the ideal spot. 

Rewatch the game film on ALL22, of the batted passes. Something else is tipping the play earlier to D-lineman. Others have noted that by the 4th quarter Watt and Allen are not even rushing the passer and instead playing deflection on specific plays, at specific spots later in the game, before Mayfield sets and releases. Their deflections are carried out with timing, similar to how a quick pass it timed. 

Very cool post, though - you put time in (which is why I responded thoroughly, as well) and it's fun to look at QB mechanics - of which Mayfield falls into the "body thrower" category - and you clearly found some aspect of his throwing motion that adds to time to release. 

Yet, I think to more accurately assess Mayfield's difference in time to throw (and its impact on deflections) from other quarterbacks, you'd need to do a full assessment of more than Mac Jones, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson for comparison. They seem curious, questionable choices, as all the QBs you chose are known for especially quick releases.  A less biased comparison might ask to compare Mayfield to other QBs with similar release times and then identify their absence of similar motion tells, and then cross reference with deflected pass rates to expose Mayfield as an outlier (and not adult).

As well, you might consider some QB coaching, as someo teach bringing the ball up and in as security measure, which might account for his lifting action before setting to throw. 

Or maybe, not and he just has weird mechanics. 

If Mayfield is at fault for the batted passes, it seems the more obvious explanation is that he's not managing the throwing lanes properly, especially since Watt and Allen were preemptively sitting there ready to swat. 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by AlphabetsEnd

[Ricky Spanish]

4 hours ago, AlphabetsEnd said:

Am I understanding your claim correctly, that the difference in throwing time between Mayfield and "average" is 6-7 frames?  And your conclusion is that this 40% "this would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, Jump up and bat a ball down" as opposed to other QBs without this supposed "tell." 

Is your frame rate 24, 30, or 60? 8 frame quicktime movie from the mid 90s?  Youtube's standard frame rate is 24-60 fps. 

Regardless, going with slowest frame rate (24) those 6-7 additional frames is at most 1/4 of a second, or 250 milliseconds. 17-18 frames is 3/4 of a second, or 750 milliseconds, for the full 17/18 frame full motion. In that time you are suggesting that a defensive player's brain allows it to recognize, slow its own momentum of the pass rush, reset body postion, jump up, and bat the ball, in what amounts to 750 milliseconds (+ time for ball to travel the few yards at upwards of 50-60 mph). Humanly possible, yes, but at the exclusion of other visual and tactile stimuli that are unfolding in pass rush/blocking situation, leaves me dubious and thinking it's not "the" reason this is happening. 

Trained athletes can react to visual stimulus in 200 milliseconds. This seems an accepted duration of time it takes for a human to start physical reaction to visual stimulus (sound is faster, interestingly). The time to stop and redirect bodily motion, identify trajectory and throw hands up, would require additional precious miliseconds. While it is humanly possible to throw an arm vertically in a half second, as studies have shown humans can react to a fall and catch themselves in this time frame of about 500 milliseconds, it would account for the remaining time before the throw is out of the QB's hands. Very narrow.

So, theoretically, it's possible if the D-lineman is fixated on the QB to pull this off but (a) that is hardly  "ample time" ---  to read Baker AND Jump up AND bat a ball down" and (b) the more salient issue is what is transpiring before the throwing motion (before the 17-18 frames) that would delay reaction or prolong action.. A defensive lineman is moving, defeating blockers, trying to maintain sightlines --all actions antithetical to stopping and redirecting attention and energy to pass deflection. 

Unless the frame rate you're viewing is strangely low, you're looking at upper limit human reactions, while rushing a passer, fending off a blocker, stopping and redirecting momentum, propelling 300 pounds upwards, while raising equally bulky limbs -- and all while maintaining consistent visual input on the QB and a rapidly accelerating projectile. More problematic, then also, is that the pass rusher's physical motion and momentum is directed forward and  against a resisting agent; unless they are already planning to jump because they have been made aware of a pass well earlier than the 750 miliseconds needed to react and act on the pass deflection -- without prior intent and readiness this seems a superhuman effort to pull off 5 times in a short span of a single game, this seems really fugging hard to pull off. 

All this tells me (pun!) is that...

If Mayfield has a tell (and he might) it's not this. It seems more likely that if his throwing motion is slowed by this "lift" you identify, it's reasonable that whatever actual tell is tipping defenders to the pass play called, that perhaps his "40%" slower release gives the lineman a superior chance to deflect, when the the actual, other tell or tip is recognized, thus allowing the rusher to set himself preemptively in the passing lane and start his jump when the QB sets to throw. The actual advantage then comes from 1) knowing  it's a passing play 2) knowing where the pass is going 3) knowing the timing of the throw from the snap 4) not overcommitting to rushing but instead setting up to deflect passes in the ideal spot. 

Rewatch the game film on ALL22, of the batted passes. Something else is tipping the play earlier to D-lineman. Others have noted that by the 4th quarter Watt and Allen are not even rushing the passer and instead playing deflection on specific plays, at specific spots later in the game, before Mayfield sets and releases. Their deflections are carried out with timing, similar to how a quick pass it timed. 

Very cool post, though - you put time in (which is why I responded thoroughly, as well) and it's fun to look at QB mechanics - of which Mayfield falls into the "body thrower" category - and you clearly found some aspect of his throwing motion that adds to time to release. 

Yet, I think to more accurately assess Mayfield's difference in time to throw (and its impact on deflections) from other quarterbacks, you'd need to do a full assessment of more than Mac Jones, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson for comparison. They seem curious, questionable choices, as all the QBs you chose are known for especially quick releases.  A less biased comparison might ask to compare Mayfield to other QBs with similar release times and then identify their absence of similar motion tells, and then cross reference with deflected pass rates to expose Mayfield as an outlier (and not adult).

As well, you might consider some QB coaching, as someo teach bringing the ball up and in as security measure, which might account for his lifting action before setting to throw. 

Or maybe, not and he just has weird mechanics. 

If Mayfield is at fault for the batted passes, it seems the more obvious explanation is that he's not managing the throwing lanes properly, especially since Watt and Allen were preemptively sitting there ready to swat. 

 

Thank you, I was looking for someone to follow this up with this kind of info of frames/second. And I agree, the defenses we face are definitely reading our plays better than we are calling them and that is probably the biggest contributing factor to the tipped passes. Since the defenders know where the ball is going, they will probably have a better understanding of what throwing lanes to occupy before Baker throws. 

I do believe that Baker's windup is contributing to this though. These are world class athletes and it is not beyond the scope of possibility that they could be reacting to the visual cue of Baker moving his hands up before he throws. I know MLB players have 125-225 milliseconds (source provided) from 60 feet away to decide if a pitch is a ball/strike, and whether or not to swing a bat around their body to try to make contact with a tiny ball, so if they can react in that small a window, then I believe these NFL defenders juiced to the gills can at least start raising their arms the moment they see Baker raising his. Add into the equation that Baker is short, has a low trajectory when he throws, and the defenders KNOW what plays we are calling and where the ball is going, and it's a recipe for tip city. 

Either way, his throwing motion is completely inefficient and needs to be fixed. 

[AlphabetsEnd]

1 hour ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Thank you, I was looking for someone to follow this up with this kind of info of frames/second. And I agree, the defenses we face are definitely reading our plays better than we are calling them and that is probably the biggest contributing factor to the tipped passes. Since the defenders know where the ball is going, they will probably have a better understanding of what throwing lanes to occupy before Baker throws. 

I do believe that Baker's windup is contributing to this though. These are world class athletes and it is not beyond the scope of possibility that they could be reacting to the visual cue of Baker moving his hands up before he throws. I know MLB players have 125-225 milliseconds (source provided) from 60 feet away to decide if a pitch is a ball/strike, and whether or not to swing a bat around their body to try to make contact with a tiny ball, so if they can react in that small a window, then I believe these NFL defenders juiced to the gills can at least start raising their arms the moment they see Baker raising his. Add into the equation that Baker is short, has a low trajectory when he throws, and the defenders KNOW what plays we are calling and where the ball is going, and it's a recipe for tip city. 

Either way, his throwing motion is completely inefficient and needs to be fixed. 

I can agree with that, there is inefficiency in Mayfield's mechanics (at least compared to QBs with elite release), which probably gives just that little extra moment when they happen to be in the right spot to react, with eyes locked on QB (being 6'6" against a 6'3"-6'4" lineman or TE blocking down gives sightlines) and already know the throws destination, lane and timing. 

My biggest concern is the play recognition and/or blocking of passing lanes, because Watt is trying to swat while rushing early game, but it doesn't work. By the second half of the Cardinals game it's like block city out there. CLE had earlier pass deflection success, but it cooled down late game. Somebody adjusted that late game, or moving away from the short game in 2min fixes the problem, with no quick game. 

Like all things I feel I see with the offense this season, right now, it's a lot of things wrong, rotationally, which is making everything equate to a crappy passing game, inconsistent run game, few third downs and low scoring. 

It did occur to me this am, if you enjoy frame by frame analysis, you could go to the ALL22 and track JJ Watt's reaction time and deflection action in frames to see how long it's actually taking from ending his pass rush to ball deflection, then cross reference to Mayfield's set and throw. 

I did this crudely during a few watch throughs, but was more focused more on what Mayfield was doing well or badly at the moment JJ shifted, but I wasn't concerned with reaction time, so much as whether the D-ends were jumping the lanes and ready for pass deflection. 

[YourLastThought]

On 10/6/2022 at 9:47 AM, Ricky Spanish said:

Everyone has their own theories about why Baker has so many batted balls. Some say it's the O-lines fault, some say it's Baker's height, but I have my own theory: Baker telegraphs the hell out of all of his throws.

Looking back at the game highlights from Sunday on Youtube, I wanted to count how many frames it took for Baker to throw the ball from hand separation to release. To my surprise, it takes him just as long on average as Kyler Murray to separate his hands and throw the ball (11/12 frames). But for some reason his delivery still looks like it takes longer. That's when I noticed something else. In Baker's Dropback, he holds the ball right around sternum height covering the #6 on his jersey. However, when Baker Identifies who to throw the ball to, he raises his hands up about 6 inches so that it covers the collar of his jersey. This is where he loads up to throw and the hand separation begins. From here it takes the same amount of frames to release the ball as Murray. However, from the time it takes him to get his hands from drop back mode to "load up" mode, it takes anywhere between 17 and 20 frames. 

Examples:

Drop back - Hands are at number height:

Decision to throw right before hand separation - Hands are near the collar:

The above throw bumped his frames to throw from 11 up to 16.

 

This seems to be a part of his muscle memory. On this play, The TE cross is the first option and you can tell that is where he was going with the ball even before he finishes his drop back. In the process of dropping back, right before his back foot hits the ground, he starts to load up to get the ball out at the top of his drop back: 

Drop Back:

Decision to throw at the top of his dropback:

Jumps frames to throw from 12 up to 18.

Week 3 Examples:

Baker hits the top of his dropback on this shotgun pass, Ball is at number height:

Baker Identifies the target and separates his hands:

Time from hand separation to release - 12 frames. Add the load up, jumps up to 18 frames

Another one:

Identifies who he throws it to:

 

Right before hand separation:

11 frames from separate hands to thrown, up to 17 frames from load up to thrown

 

"But Ricky" you say to yourself, "All QBs have to load up to throw". And to that I say, yes, however they don't raise the ball 6 inches to do so. Example from two completely different teams because it was suggested by youtube: Week 3 Pats v. Ravens

Mac Jones identifies his target, ball is at number height:

Jones loads up aka the Frame before hand separation:

Ball goes up maybe two inches and takes 2 frames to get there. His release averages around 10/11 frames btw.

Another Jones:

Frame where Jones identifies his target:

 

Right before hand separation:

It takes 1 frame and his hands barely move.

From the same game:

Lamar Jackson - Averages around 11 frames from hand separation to release, also has a funky side arm delivery:

Frame where he identifies his receiver:

Very next frame right before he begins hand separation. His hands don't move from that plane before he throws. His load up is that plane:

Another one:

Lamar's hands don't fuging move before he separates his hands:

Right before hand separation:

Jackson has absolutely ZERO telegraph to his delivery.

 

TL;DR

Baker Mayfield telegraphs his throws by raising the ball up roughly 6 inches before he begins his throwing motion. This increases his time to throw from the average 11/12 frames up to 17/18 frames, slowing his delivery down up to 40% on any given play. This would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, jump up, and bat a ball down.

Damn, have you considered a career in QB coaching or something along that line in the NFL? I'm being serious here. What you say makes sense. That's some sick detail and some real analytics that actually make sense and work. Just by this post I would replace Rhule's sorry ass with you in a second.

 

 

[Ricky Spanish]

Just now, YourLastThought said:

Damn, have you considered a career in QB coaching or something along that line in the NFL? I'm being serious here. What you say makes sense. That's some sick detail and some real analytics that actually make sense and work. Just by this post I would replace Rhule's sorry ass with you in a second.

 

 

I know absolutely nothing about coaching football. 

I know data, statistics, and measuring trends. Something about Baker's Delivery just looked off to me and I was able to go back and watch enough plays and slow it down on youtube to notice the lift every time he throws downfield. 

One thing I will say, he doesn't seem to do the lift on shorter passes, aka screens/passes near the LOS. Ball comes out quick and his hands separate near his chest where he drops back. My theory is that he is trying to get everything he has into his throws downfield which is why he does the load up on deeper passes.

[Wundrbread33]

On 10/6/2022 at 12:39 PM, MechaZain said:

We throw around terms like "couch GM" to discredit each other often but here we have a Huddler who's come up with a better answer for this than any professional analyst that's covered it. Maybe more in-depth than the team's own coaching staff. Bravo @Ricky Spanish.

Does Baker pump fake ever? Seems like that would do wonders in this case.

That’s one thing I really loved about Corral in college. Excellent pump fake. 
 

Baker must utilize the pump, but he also needs to work better with his eyes, and navigate the pocket and slide his feet to open throwing lanes. 
 

He’s pressing and on tilt right now too. You can tell the batted balls are in his head.