Tropical Storm Ian

[Ja Rhule]

1 minute ago, Paa Langfart said:

looking more like what you said last night - potential track keeps moving east

 

Ventusky switched Charleston to Hilton Head for landfall.

[Paa Langfart]

1 minute ago, Ja Rhule said:

Ventusky switched Charleston to Hilton Head for landfall.

That is some low damn country in there and all the sea islands as well.  Even a reduced strength storm will hit them hard.  

 ventusky is an interesting site and now one of my bookmarks 

[Ja Rhule]

21 minutes ago, Paa Langfart said:

That is some low damn country in there and all the sea islands as well.  Even a reduced strength storm will hit them hard.  

 ventusky is an interesting site and now one of my bookmarks 

I have been using ventusky for years.  They are almost always ahead of NOAA by a day.

This storm is going to soak South East.

[PanthersATL]

oh look, a depression hits Charlotte 8am Sunday morning.

Sounds like even Ian is disappointed with Rhule.

[Ja Rhule]

40 minutes ago, PanthersATL said:

oh look, a depression hits Charlotte 8am Sunday morning.

Sounds like even Ian is disappointed with Rhule.

We are getting the D.

[Ja Rhule]

Just to note…. When it says S or D…. All heavy stuff is way out north.  So Charlotte will get S mostly.

[PanthersATL]

53 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

Just to note…. When it says S or D…. All heavy stuff is way out north.  So Charlotte will get S mostly.

M = major hurricane
H = hurricane
S = Storm
D = Depression

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, Ja Rhule said:

We are getting the D.

 

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

Ventusky doesn't have its own models or forecasts, it animates the data generated by models like ICON or GFS.  If you look in the bottom left there's a dropdown box to choose which one you want.

The National Hurricane Center generates its forecasts based on an aggregate of like four or five different models, so if one model is way off what the others are predicting it won't be reflected in the track until the others come to a consensus.  GFS and ECMWF which are two of the other main models NOAA uses haven't predicted as wild of a swing east as ICON has yet, although it seems to be creeping that way.

[Ja Rhule]

Ventusky switched it back to direct hit to Charleston

 

[beo]

As far as impacts on SC go it's pretty much just going to come down to last second "wobbles", slight alterations in the track that occur naturally.  Wobbles like this are what saved Lake Charles from getting the worst of Laura a few years back. The more time it spends over sea, the more severe the impacts will be because it'll give it more time over warm sea surface tempuratures to strengthen so any shift to the east will help it develop further after re-emergence. The models seem to be split on just how long it's actually going to spend over sea if it even re-emerges at all.  Each model is an individual run and models are incorrect all the time which is why the NHC uses an aggregate of multiple, reliable models rather than just taking one as the word of god. That is what their cones/forecasts consist of.

The ICON, a model which has been quite reliable so far with regards to this particular storm, thinks it'll re-emerge and strengthen significantly in approach to SC into probably a major.  To my knowledge the ICON is the most "radical" of the models at the moment. The EURO also seems to be in favor of re-emergence but as a much weaker system, probably a TS or low end Cat 1. The storm has already shifted east quite a lot from initial projections. It's a bit far out to know for sure, just have to wait and see.

EURO on top, ICON on bottom.

Edited September 27, 2022 by beo

[beo]

Worst case scenario for this would probably be it going north east into Fort Myers or something and then re-emerging over which seems to be what things are trending towards... ;/ undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle atm but man this thing looks like it's starting to head more easterly as seen at the very end of this loop. Interested to see what it looks like at 11.

Wind steering layers pointing it quite far east as well(these "guide" hurricanes along their path a good bit of the time):

This isn't good for Florida either. That part of the state wasn't preparing to get the brunt of it, that was more focused up in Tampa. 

[LinvilleGorge]

I hope it doesn't hit Hunting Island. Man, that last major hit they took wrecked that island. Probably my favorite spot in SC and I'm planning on heading down there in early December.

 

[stirs]

Sarasota might be in trouble