A Statistical Deeper dive into our 2021 Defense and our 2022 outlook

[poundaway]

2 hours ago, CRA said:

I might of missed it but I would add defensive penalties as area that needs real improvement. 

We had the 9th most penalties despite having the 3rd fewest plays run against us. 

Though I agree with the point that there is room for improvement in the penalty department, we had the 10th MOST plays run against our D (1077 plays) and they faced the 2nd most drives.

Edited September 8, 2022 by poundaway

[Sgt Schultz]

I'm not a big stats guy because there is usually some context behind them that gets overlooked.  That said, if there is one I want to see get significantly better this year it is the turnover differential.  We were at -13 last year, tied with the Bears (6-11) and Jets (4-13) and only better than the Jags (-20, 3-14).  The Raiders (-9) were the worst in this category with a winning record and to make the playoffs.  In fact, after the Raiders, the next worst team to make the playoffs were the 49ers at -4.

Turnover differential is by no means a magic bullet, and it takes both sides of the ball to improve it.  And there is some context to be lost in the interception number (picked Hail Marys at the end of a half, 45 yard bombs that are picked not not returned both count the same as the 7 yard pass that is picked off and returned 15 yards). 

Last year our problem was interceptions (no shite, Schultz), as we only collected 9 (tied for 26th in the league) and we threw 21 (worst in the league).  It also accounts for -12 of the -13 differential. 

If we can improve that -13 to something around the break even point or even into positive territory, our mountain to climb gets less steep.

[Ricky Spanish]

5 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I'm not a big stats guy because there is usually some context behind them that gets overlooked.  That said, if there is one I want to see get significantly better this year it is the turnover differential.  We were at -13 last year, tied with the Bears (6-11) and Jets (4-13) and only better than the Jags (-20, 3-14).  The Raiders (-9) were the worst in this category with a winning record and to make the playoffs.  In fact, after the Raiders, the next worst team to make the playoffs were the 49ers at -4.

Turnover differential is by no means a magic bullet, and it takes both sides of the ball to improve it.  And there is some context to be lost in the interception number (picked Hail Marys at the end of a half, 45 yard bombs that are picked not not returned both count the same as the 7 yard pass that is picked off and returned 15 yards). 

Last year our problem was interceptions (no shite, Schultz), as we only collected 9 (tied for 26th in the league) and we threw 21 (worst in the league).  It also accounts for -12 of the -13 differential. 

If we can improve that -13 to something around the break even point or even into positive territory, our mountain to climb gets less steep.

That is a major takeaway (pun intended) I got from this. Our defense was if nothing else, completely solid, and that was without collecting turnovers through that entire process. If we can cause more turnovers, our defense will be downright scary moving forward. 

[CRA]

41 minutes ago, poundaway said:

we had the 10th MOST plays run against our D (1077 plays) and they faced the 2nd most drives.

2021 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

That's not how I read this. 

It says only the Bills and Bears defended against less plays than the Panthers defense.  Yet we were 9th in penalties.  And it has us at 1028 plays.   

 

[Luciu5]

1 hour ago, hepcat said:

Thanks for compiling the stats. I'd really love to see what the stats look like after you remove the first 3 games. The Jets, Saints w/o coaches, and Texans, were dominating defensive performances that could have skewed the stats. In most of the games the team lost, the defense gave up over 100 rushing yards. But in the first three games, the run defense had not been figured out yet. The Cowboys did that, and it was never the same after that. 

You can't control who you play.

What you are asking though is pretty much impossible. You would also have to take 3 most dominant games out from all the other teams to do a ranking.

Were those 3 games our best defensive performances though? I'm not certain on that either. We did have some good defensive games against the Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals, and Saints(2nd game) as well (when just looking at the score...I'm not diving that deep here). 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Luciu5

[Pimpdaddy]

3 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I keep seeing everyone bring up the fact that we were "The #2 Defense in the NFL last season!!11" countered by those that say "No we sucked donkey balls" and I'm kind of over it. Truth is, we weren't as good as some say and we weren't as bad as some say. They were really good at some things and really bad at others.

I'm going to break it down into three categories so we can understand what the team did well (top 10), what they didn't do well (bottom 10), and what we were kind of okay at (ranked 11-22 or so) and what was done this offseason that may affect these rankings for 2022. I'm not going to look at total yards or total TDs allowed because that would not paint a true picture of the Defense's capabilities due to the offense putting them in bad situations all year. Instead, I will look at the efficiency stats (the per play, per drive kind of stuff) as a better illustration of our teams true performance because we gave the opposing Teams a better starting position by nearly 2 full yards compared to the rest of the league:

So having that context, let's take a deeper dive on whether or not the defense was actually good or not

Things we were good at

Yards/offensive play

Net Yards gained per pass attempt:

Rushing Yards/Attempt

Penalties in general and limiting them

Limiting YAC (#1!)

Blitzing a lot

Pressures per drop back

Tackles for loss

3rd down conversion percentage

Number of plays allowed per drive (surprisingly really good)

Net yards per drive (heavy correlation to our bad offense)

 

Things we were not good at

Turnovers both total, and per drive:

Percentage of plays we allowed a passing TD

INT Percentage

RZ TD Percentage

 

Things we were just OK at

QB Hurries per throw

Knockdowns of the QB per pass attempt

Missed Tackles

QB Completion percentage Allowed

Adjusted yards/pass attempt

Yards per completion

QB Rating allowed

4th down conversion percentage

Scoring Drive Percentage (this stat has strong correlation to how bad our offense was)

Avg points scored per drive

Overall Defense DVOA

 

2021 Summary:

Personally, I'm a bit surprised at how there was significantly more good/Average than bad. What the stats showed me is that we are a controlled aggressive defense that limits penalties and is overall pretty solid. There are definitely some concerns, mainly RZ defensive play calling if we are giving up that many TDs per trip, but there is a solid foundation to improve upon, and our Run defense wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it was last year. PFO's overall defensive rating of 15 is pretty reasonable considering our strengths (aggressive, getting after the QB) and weaknesses (turnovers, and big plays allowed).

It cannot be understated how BAD our offense was last year and how much their ineptitude really hurt our defense. They constantly gave opposing teams a short field to work with and could not sustain drives due to turnovers and overall sucking.

 

2022 Outlook

Adding Baker Mayfield as our QB might be the single best offseason acquisition for our defense. If he is even remotely average than the Team improves dramatically. Truth be told, if we had Teddy as our QB last year, we had the potential to win way more games based on how the defense played. Other offseason acquisitions include bolstering the LB corp, adding a pass rushing DT, adding a solid vet safety, and hiring Steve Wilks and Paul Pasqualoni. Offseason losses include losing Reddick and Stephon Gilmore to FA.

While I'm not sold on Pasqualoni as an upgrade, Wilks in the DB room is a huge boost as far as coaching goes. He helped make Josh Norman, Kurt Coleman, and James Bradberry pro bowl caliber players and he should be a great mentor for our young secondary. While we lost Reddick, he wasn't the best run stopper, and I understand why we just picked up Henry Anderson to help with run support. Brown will need to step up in a big way, but the LBers we signed, while not the best in coverage, are good run stoppers and should help bolster our average run defense. We seem to be banking on a lot of our young talent stepping up in YGM, and the secondary as a whole. Truth be told, our secondary looks pretty damn scary on paper and I think they are the true engine of our defense. We are built to lock down the receivers and allow the DL/LBers enough time to get to the QB. Snow loves to blitz, and he loves to do it exotically. This defense is giving me some real legion of boom vibes in terms of construction - not necessarily results just yet.

I have come out of this deep dive surprisingly optimistic and actually excited to see what our defense can do this year with better coaching and a better offense to support them. Statistically speaking, they seem to be on the cusp of being a truly GOOD defense, especially if they can start getting turnovers. 

 

Dude...you should be working in their analytics dept.... nice job.

[poundaway]

16 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I'm not a big stats guy because there is usually some context behind them that gets overlooked.  That said, if there is one I want to see get significantly better this year it is the turnover differential.  We were at -13 last year, tied with the Bears (6-11) and Jets (4-13) and only better than the Jags (-20, 3-14).  The Raiders (-9) were the worst in this category with a winning record and to make the playoffs.  In fact, after the Raiders, the next worst team to make the playoffs were the 49ers at -4.

Turnover differential is by no means a magic bullet, and it takes both sides of the ball to improve it.  And there is some context to be lost in the interception number (picked Hail Marys at the end of a half, 45 yard bombs that are picked not not returned both count the same as the 7 yard pass that is picked off and returned 15 yards). 

Last year our problem was interceptions (no shite, Schultz), as we only collected 9 (tied for 26th in the league) and we threw 21 (worst in the league).  It also accounts for -12 of the -13 differential. 

If we can improve that -13 to something around the break even point or even into positive territory, our mountain to climb gets less steep.

 

8 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

That is a major takeaway (pun intended) I got from this. Our defense was if nothing else, completely solid, and that was without collecting turnovers through that entire process. If we can cause more turnovers, our defense will be downright scary moving forward. 

I think part of that was because teams preferred to run on us.  I it seems there should be a  lower chance for TO on a rush.

[Ricky Spanish]

3 minutes ago, Pimpdaddy said:

Dude...you should be working in their analytics dept.... nice job.

I do data analysis for a living (and I love it). Truthfully, I have like 6 requests lined up over the next week or so but it's football season so this became top priority.

Also, my dream job would be to watch film, chart plays, and then crunch numbers in terms of success/failures against certain fronts, players, positions, teams, etc. If you or anyone knows anyone in the FO that wants someone to do said job, I am available.

[poundaway]

13 minutes ago, CRA said:

2021 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

That's not how I read this. 

It says only the Bills and Bears defended against less plays than the Panthers defense.  Yet we were 9th in penalties.  And it has us at 1028 plays.   

 

Something wonky is going on there.    Now it says we have 1065 plays, the 7th fewest, which is different than what you or I saw on the same site. 


In any case your point is still valid, as I said, that we have room for improvement in that area.

Edited September 8, 2022 by poundaway

[Pimpdaddy]

2 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

I do data analysis for a living (and I love it). Truthfully, I have like 6 requests lined up over the next week or so but it's football season so this became top priority.

Also, my dream job would be to watch film, chart plays, and then crunch numbers in terms of success/failures against certain fronts, players, positions, teams, etc. If you or anyone knows anyone in the FO that wants someone to do said job, I am available.

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, poundaway said:

Something wonky is going on there.    Now it says we have 1065 plays, the 7th fewest, which is different than what you or I saw on the same site. 


In any case your point is still valid, as I said, that we have room for improvement in that area.

 

Not sure why, but each calculates plays slightly different.   Total defense defines plays as pass attempts, plus rush attempts + sacks.  That has us at the 3rd fewest plays defended. Drives Against is pass, rush and penalty.  That has us at 7th fewest. 

 So I guess the one I quoted is just official plays in the books.  Other must be accounting for downs where penalty wipes it out. 

[Gash]

20 minutes ago, Pimpdaddy said:

Saw that movie with my family in the theater when it came out. Yep, I'm that old.

[Sgt Schultz]

34 minutes ago, poundaway said:

 

I think part of that was because teams preferred to run on us.  I it seems there should be a  lower chance for TO on a rush.

Your probably onto something, especially if they are running to protect a lead and keep Big Ben winding down. 

We've seen the numbers that teams ran a lot at the middle of our defense, which stbugs talked about a few posts up and somewhere in the last few days.  Teams that are ahead and running to wind down the clock are generally going to do so with low risk plays and the ball firmly secured rather than anything creating any risk.  So they would not only be running plays, but low risk running plays.

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

This is similar to what I posted in another thread yesterday. You can’t just go off stats. The chart you posted showed that even though running outside/off tackle was a huge weakness, teams ran up the middle a ton on us. Why was that? Well maybe the fact that after week 3 we had a -139 points differential. Even with a 24 point win over the Cardinals, we were outscored by 139 points in the last 14 games. In our 12 losses, we were outscored by 169 points, basically 14 ppg. Teams didn’t have to try to score more points so they’d run it up the middle to end the game.

Yes, if CMC and Horn are healthy and Baker plays well, that will help the D but we have some good looking D stats last year due to opponents being able to jump way ahead and slowing down. Sam sure wasn’t leading us back, neither did Cam.

Yep. Situational...

As an aside, the one guy Rhule really just seems to own is Kingsbury.