Reasons for cautious optimism?

[Ricky Spanish]

10 hours ago, rayzor said:

If he had the same coaching staff as before and got better, it would be easier to give him credit. He now has a better coaching staff around him. Better coaching overall has to be the result of the better coaches being brought in, correct? Who else should the credit go to? Should Rhule get the coaching credit for the better coaches he brought in? 

And I think that's a good thing if he does step aside and let the others do their job. Makes him a better leader. Like I've said before, the best leaders builds a team of leaders under him who do their individual jobs better than you would be able to. You come up with a macro-plan and give direction and focus and inspiration and you get out of the way.

When things start to derail or the goal isn't getting met, then you step back in and get their heads right and redirect. You adapt and you help your team adapt.

When things go right, you give them the credit they deserve and you don't. They do the work, you make sure they do it right.

if things ultimately don't work, then it's on you for either not getting the right members of the team or giving them the direction or not adapting as needed. 

(One of) My biggest concerns with Rhule going forward is his lack of competency at identifying NFL level talent in terms of coaching. The fact that he is willing to move on quickly from something that is not working is a plus in my book, something he seems to do better than Rivera ever did in terms of accepting mediocrity from coaches he personally likes. Having said that, he has not shown that he is able to put together an NFL level staff just yet. Maybe things change this year, and that'd be fantastic. My concern comes up when the staff he has finally put together moves on to greener pastures when they get better opportunities and Rhule is then forced to replace them. Let's say McAdoo gets another HC offer, or Sean Ryan gets an OC offer, or Wilkes gets another DC offer. It would then be up to Rhule to find replacements for those guys and I don't have faith that he will be able to do it. 

[rayzor]

2 hours ago, Ezrider1423 said:

Do you expect him to win 10 games from the jump? And do that for 10 plus years?  Who comes in and honestly just wins off the bat and just maintains it and gets better? That means we’d have to win about 10 plus games every single year but even then, I think you’d probably still bitch.. when they finally do get to the top of the mountain, it will be that much sweeter.  Keep your bandwagon close by so you don’t hurt yourself trying to jump back on board.  

 

going to abstain from returning juvenile insults. you can win that pissing match. whatever. i'm tired of that poo.

now responding like you were an adult...

i expected year one to be a pretty meh year, but would have liked to see a little improvement over rivera's last year. first year and a lot of problems i can let that go. 

year two i expected to see some more wins...not necessarily playoffs and definitely not 10 wins, but we should have had a winning season or at least close to one. benchmark to reach for year two was a winning season. it's a very reasonable goal for any coach who knows what they are doing and it happens frequently when good coaches take over bad teams.  year three is the year that any new coach should be hitting the playoffs and making a run. 

so did i expect 10 wins out of the gate? no. did i expect him to improve from year one to year two? was turning it from 5 wins to 9 wins unreasonable? no. again, a good coach that knew what he was doing would have been able to make that happen and we've seen that happen a lot over the years. we've seen more dramatic ones that that happen pretty often. 

now as far as me complaining after 10 win seasons? why would i? all i want is to win. of we're doing that i and 99% of the board would be totally fine with that. 

and calling me a bandwagon fan? lol just going to let that one go. 

[rayzor]

5 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

(One of) My biggest concerns with Rhule going forward is his lack of competency at identifying NFL level talent in terms of coaching. The fact that he is willing to move on quickly from something that is not working is a plus in my book, something he seems to do better than Rivera ever did in terms of accepting mediocrity from coaches he personally likes. Having said that, he has not shown that he is able to put together an NFL level staff just yet. Maybe things change this year, and that'd be fantastic. My concern comes up when the staff he has finally put together moves on to greener pastures when they get better opportunities and Rhule is then forced to replace them. Let's say McAdoo gets another HC offer, or Sean Ryan gets an OC offer, or Wilkes gets another DC offer. It would then be up to Rhule to find replacements for those guys and I don't have faith that he will be able to do it. 

i think we've got a good staff, but i think this is probably a journeyman staff...not a long term one. so the concern about after coaches start taking better jobs and being able to fill those vacancies with solid coaching is a concern. hopefully after rhule has been around for a while (if we're going to be stuck with him for a while) is that he will have networked enough with other teams in the league that he would be able to build a more consistent coaching staff. 

that's one of many problems of not coming up through the ranks of the NFL is the lack of networking that has been done over the years. it leaves you with a very small pool of familiarity to draw from when looking to build and refill spots on a staff.

[rayzor]

8 hours ago, poundaway said:

So does that mean Rhule  gets the credit for the better coaches he brought in? 

yes...unless someone picked these guys for him and he was stuck with them, which is still a possibility but i'll give him the benefit of the doubt here. like @Ricky Spanish said earlier, whether he can duplicate the success he had this year of refilling vacancies has yet to be seen, but also as ricky spanish said, rhule did a better job than rivera of moving on from bad coaches. again, i don't know if rhule's hand was forced, but whatever the case, i hope that this was something that he learned had to happen. when coaches don't do the job well enough, you move on and find one that will get it done right and achieve the goals you set for it and you don't wait to do it. and i also hope that same standard is applied to him.

[Ricky Spanish]

1 hour ago, rayzor said:

i think we've got a good staff, but i think this is probably a journeyman staff...not a long term one. so the concern about after coaches start taking better jobs and being able to fill those vacancies with solid coaching is a concern. hopefully after rhule has been around for a while (if we're going to be stuck with him for a while) is that he will have networked enough with other teams in the league that he would be able to build a more consistent coaching staff. 

that's one of many problems of not coming up through the ranks of the NFL is the lack of networking that has been done over the years. it leaves you with a very small pool of familiarity to draw from when looking to build and refill spots on a staff.

Definitely. A big concern with the unproven CEO type coaches like Rhule are that they are dependent on their coordinators to put together their offensive and defensive schemes in ways guys like Andy Reid, Sean McVay, or Bill Belichick are not. With those guys, you have a reasonable assumption that either the offense or defense will thrive/be solid regardless of who the actual coordinator is because they are the true architect of the scheme and their fingerprints are all over it. When their Coordinators move on and get new jobs, the team still continues to thrive under the HC because they are the true mastermind behind that one side of the ball, then they only need to worry about finding someone they trust to run the other side of things.

Guys like Tomlin and Harbaugh are CEO style coaches that have proven time and time again that they can identify the talent/coordinators that can help the team win once someone moves on. There is minimal loss/dropoff when coordinators leave because they are working to groom the next guy up in the org, or identify the talent elsewhere and hire them. 

Rhule's lack of NFL experience and current track record of hires leaves me anxious that he has the skills to identify and replace the talent that is good enough to get better job opportunities in other orgs. Again, props are due for the fact that he is able to identify when things aren't working and move on from them quickly. I just worry it's a ton of scrambling and choosing the next successor with limited ability to identify actual talent.

[joemac]

17 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Humm just for argument sake are we saying Mayfield as a prospect is more talented than Kerry Collins... Because the evaluator in me would say no.

LOL what?  Absolutely Mayfield was the better prospect coming out of college.  

Collins 2 seasons as a starter at Penn State:

Jr. Season: 50.8% 1605 yards 13 TDs 11 INTs

Sr. Season: 66.7% 2679 yards 21 TDs 7 INTs

Mayfields last 2 seasons as a starter in CFB:

Jr. Season: 70.9% 3965 yards 40 TDs 8 INTs

Sr. Season: 70.5% 4627 yards 43 TDs 6 INTs - Won the Heisman Trophy

Its absolutely no comparison

[t96]

On 9/5/2022 at 9:29 AM, kungfoodude said:

I can agree on DB and WR but outside that our depth is very, very thin at most positions. 

Defensive front 7 is thin but other than that I think we're pretty deep. Foreman is a solid backup RB, TE we don't have a great starter but have a handful of decent backup guys, WR as you said is deep, QB is deep with Sam healthy (although drastically overpaid), and OL is probably deeper than it's ever been (deep enough that Daley who has started a bunch of games for us and was sought after by another team couldn't even make our roster). DB our deepest it's ever been too.

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, joemac said:

LOL what?  Absolutely Mayfield was the better prospect coming out of college.  

Collins 2 seasons as a starter at Penn State:

Jr. Season: 50.8% 1605 yards 13 TDs 11 INTs

Sr. Season: 66.7% 2679 yards 21 TDs 7 INTs

Mayfields last 2 seasons as a starter in CFB:

Jr. Season: 70.9% 3965 yards 40 TDs 8 INTs

Sr. Season: 70.5% 4627 yards 43 TDs 6 INTs - Won the Heisman Trophy

Its absolutely no comparison

A statistical comparison may not be as effective in this case because those were very different eras of college football and offenses evolved tremendously.

Either way, Baker is/was the more talented prospect. 

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, t96 said:

Defensive front 7 is thin but other than that I think we're pretty deep. Foreman is a solid backup RB, TE we don't have a great starter but have a handful of decent backup guys, WR as you said is deep, QB is deep with Sam healthy (although drastically overpaid), and OL is probably deeper than it's ever been (deep enough that Daley who has started a bunch of games for us and was sought after by another team couldn't even make our roster). DB our deepest it's ever been too.

QB us extremely thin. We go from Mayfield to not NFL players.

RB is solid depth. CMC and Foreman are a good duo, much better than last year.

TE is basically the same as last year. Not much quality there so the drop off isn't going to be noticeable.

WR is much deeper than we have been historically. DJ Moore, RA, Higgins, Shenault and Shi Smith could be a very potent WR corps.

OL is extremely thin. We have 2-3 questionable/TBD starters and then the backups are almost entirely terrible. This is the weakest/thinnest unit on the entire team.

DB is talented and deep. Injuries would hurt here but we have a lot more game tested players to step up if guys go down. Losing guys at S would have a marked drop off but I think the second line depth isn't bad enough that you would be able to target individual guys to pick on.

LB's are relatively thin. I would say more unproven than anything else. Outside Shaq, Littleton and Wilson we have two guys who either have no starting experience or very little. On paper this is a talented group but it will rely heavily on how Luvu and Smith are able to adjust.

DL is generally lacking in quality almost across the board behind Burns, Brown and Ioannidis. YGM is a guy that can go either way. He may prove to be nothing more than an average player or he may ascend to that Rucker-like compliment to Burns. The backup group will almost all be a step down from the starters. In Burns case, it would be a large drop off. Same with Brown. Anderson is a nice addition that could probably adequately replace Ioannidis. The rest of that group is suspect at best. Maybe they develop but right now I wouldn't want to see any of those guys getting starter snaps.

 

Like I said, not even close to our deepest team in a decade. Not even in the upper half of the rosters in the last decade. Better than 2021? Should be. Still a work in progress, however. We are at least 2 offseasons from being able to field a contending roster.

[rayzor]

50 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Definitely. A big concern with the unproven CEO type coaches like Rhule are that they are dependent on their coordinators to put together their offensive and defensive schemes in ways guys like Andy Reid, Sean McVay, or Bill Belichick are not. With those guys, you have a reasonable assumption that either the offense or defense will thrive/be solid regardless of who the actual coordinator is because they are the true architect of the scheme and their fingerprints are all over it. When their Coordinators move on and get new jobs, the team still continues to thrive under the HC because they are the true mastermind behind that one side of the ball, then they only need to worry about finding someone they trust to run the other side of things.

Guys like Tomlin and Harbaugh are CEO style coaches that have proven time and time again that they can identify the talent/coordinators that can help the team win once someone moves on. There is minimal loss/dropoff when coordinators leave because they are working to groom the next guy up in the org, or identify the talent elsewhere and hire them. 

Rhule's lack of NFL experience and current track record of hires leaves me anxious that he has the skills to identify and replace the talent that is good enough to get better job opportunities in other orgs. Again, props are due for the fact that he is able to identify when things aren't working and move on from them quickly. I just worry it's a ton of scrambling and choosing the next successor with limited ability to identify actual talent.

agreed. rhule is not a mastermind on any phase of the game. he can't just put anyone in there and succeed. he's got to find people that can handle that for him and if he can keep reloading in that way...more power to him. if it works and we're successful, keep doing it. 

if we can't reload with quality coaching talent and aren't consistently successful then we have to change direction. 

for the record, one winning season isn't near enough. i don't want rhule to be given the same rope that fox and rivera had where inconsistency was allowed. if a winning season is followed by a losing one, he needs to be gone. the other two should not have been allowed to continue that pattern.

[frankw]

5 hours ago, Ezrider1423 said:

Rhule gets and will get no credit for anything good that happens here.  But he gets all the blame for everything terrible.

He signed a 63 million dollar contract and was given the keys to the franchise. My goodness cut the waterworks here.

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, rayzor said:

 

going to abstain from returning juvenile insults. you can win that pissing match. whatever. i'm tired of that poo.

now responding like you were an adult...

i expected year one to be a pretty meh year, but would have liked to see a little improvement over rivera's last year. first year and a lot of problems i can let that go. 

year two i expected to see some more wins...not necessarily playoffs and definitely not 10 wins, but we should have had a winning season or at least close to one. benchmark to reach for year two was a winning season. it's a very reasonable goal for any coach who knows what they are doing and it happens frequently when good coaches take over bad teams.  year three is the year that any new coach should be hitting the playoffs and making a run. 

so did i expect 10 wins out of the gate? no. did i expect him to improve from year one to year two? was turning it from 5 wins to 9 wins unreasonable? no. again, a good coach that knew what he was doing would have been able to make that happen and we've seen that happen a lot over the years. we've seen more dramatic ones that that happen pretty often. 

now as far as me complaining after 10 win seasons? why would i? all i want is to win. of we're doing that i and 99% of the board would be totally fine with that. 

and calling me a bandwagon fan? lol just going to let that one go. 

Hell, I said before the season started that I would accept a worse record as long as it looked like we were improving (and got ripped for it)

Instead, we ended up with the same record and a team that looked worse.

[t96]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

QB us extremely thin. We go from Mayfield to not NFL players.

RB is solid depth. CMC and Foreman are a good duo, much better than last year.

TE is basically the same as last year. Not much quality there so the drop off isn't going to be noticeable.

WR is much deeper than we have been historically. DJ Moore, RA, Higgins, Shenault and Shi Smith could be a very potent WR corps.

OL is extremely thin. We have 2-3 questionable/TBD starters and then the backups are almost entirely terrible. This is the weakest/thinnest unit on the entire team.

DB is talented and deep. Injuries would hurt here but we have a lot more game tested players to step up if guys go down. Losing guys at S would have a marked drop off but I think the second line depth isn't bad enough that you would be able to target individual guys to pick on.

LB's are relatively thin. I would say more unproven than anything else. Outside Shaq, Littleton and Wilson we have two guys who either have no starting experience or very little. On paper this is a talented group but it will rely heavily on how Luvu and Smith are able to adjust.

DL is generally lacking in quality almost across the board behind Burns, Brown and Ioannidis. YGM is a guy that can go either way. He may prove to be nothing more than an average player or he may ascend to that Rucker-like compliment to Burns. The backup group will almost all be a step down from the starters. In Burns case, it would be a large drop off. Same with Brown. Anderson is a nice addition that could probably adequately replace Ioannidis. The rest of that group is suspect at best. Maybe they develop but right now I wouldn't want to see any of those guys getting starter snaps.

 

Like I said, not even close to our deepest team in a decade. Not even in the upper half of the rosters in the last decade. Better than 2021? Should be. Still a work in progress, however. We are at least 2 offseasons from being able to field a contending roster.

Strongly disagree on OL and QB.

Our starting OL is set and likely to be above average and we have better depth players there than many teams, especially considering Brady's ability to shift to tackle if Moton or Ickey were to go down. Elf and Irving, while not ideal starters, are solid backups as is Jordan. 

QB, I know we all hate Sam, after last year I never wanted to see him in a Panthers jersey again. His contract is a disaster and he's not a starter in this league. But he is a better backup than most teams have. He has plenty of issues but most backups have significantly worse issues and aren't even capable of playing at the level that Sam is capable of playing, as we saw from him the first month of last season. Reality is for 95% of teams if their starting QB goes down long term they are completely fuged. You'll have some outliers like Foles/Eagles, Cassel/Pats (they missed playoffs but went 11-5), etc. The question is whether your backup can win a game or a small number of games if the starter misses a shorter amount of time. I don't like Sam or his contract one bit but I'll gladly take him over guys like John Wolford, Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, etc.

We disagree, so be it. I hope we never find out who is right and we just stay healthy.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, t96 said:

Strongly disagree on OL and QB.

Our starting OL is set and likely to be above average and we have better depth players there than many teams, especially considering Brady's ability to shift to tackle if Moton or Ickey were to go down. Elf and Irving, while not ideal starters, are solid backups as is Jordan. 

QB, I know we all hate Sam, after last year I never wanted to see him in a Panthers jersey again. His contract is a disaster and he's not a starter in this league. But he is a better backup than most teams have. He has plenty of issues but most backups have significantly worse issues and aren't even capable of playing at the level that Sam is capable of playing, as we saw from him the first month of last season. Reality is for 95% of teams if their starting QB goes down long term they are completely fuged. You'll have some outliers like Foles/Eagles, Cassel/Pats (they missed playoffs but went 11-5), etc. The question is whether your backup can win a game or a small number of games if the starter misses a shorter amount of time. I don't like Sam or his contract one bit but I'll gladly take him over guys like John Wolford, Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, etc.

We disagree, so be it. I hope we never find out who is right and we just stay healthy.

Yeah, I definitely disagree. Hopefully you are correct.