The Quarterback Betrayal Index

[Mr. Scot]

The Athletic's NFL Quarterback Betrayal Rankings

(yes, that's really what they're calling this)

The idea behind this chart is to measure which quarterbacks got the most help from their defensive and special teams units and which others had higher obstacles to overcome. Author Mike Sando explains it as follows:

The index highlights differences in where these quarterbacks’ teams ranked on offense compared to defense/special teams, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The better a quarterback’s team was on offense and the worse his team was on defense/special teams, the more “betrayed” the quarterback was in the games he started. For example, Brees’ teams ranked second on offense and 51st on defense/special teams in his starts over the past decade, relative to where the other 53 quarterbacks’ teams ranked. Subtracting the defense/special teams ranking from the offense ranking produces a minus-49 differential, making Brees the “most betrayed” quarterback on the index.

To summarize, being ranked highly means you did "the most with the least", whereas ranking on the low end means you got decent to good help from your team's other units...but still managed to look bad. Mind you, there's more to it than just that, and Sando tries to add more info to it in his analytical comments about each quarterback.

I'll state up front that this kind of stat heavy ranking and analysis isn't my thing, but it looked like something others on here might find interesting and it does touch on some of our own recent quarterback performances.

The overall rankings are summarized in this graphic:

 

Sando's comments on current and recent Panther quarterbacks are quoted below:

16. Baker Mayfield

 

OFF 30 | DST 42 | Betrayal Index: -12, W-L: 30-31 (.492), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-23 (.303, 24th best)

Mayfield’s least probable starting victory: 37-34 at Cincinnati in 2020 Week 7, when the Browns prevailed despite finishing with minus-17.1 EPA on defense/special teams. Mayfield averaged 10.6 yards per attempt and tossed five touchdown passes with only one interception in that game.

23. Cam Newton

OFF 21 | DST 24 | Betrayal Index: -3, W-L: 72-62-1 (.537), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 18-44-1 (.294, 28th best)

The Newton-era Panthers peaked on defense/special teams with a No. 2 combined EPA ranking in 2015. They went to the Super Bowl that season.

28. Teddy Bridgewater

OFF 24 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: +1, W-L: 33-31 (.516), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-26 (.235, 36th best)

Players on this list won 75 percent of their starts when their teams finished with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. Bridgewater beat that average with a 25-5 record in those games (.833).

54. Sam Darnold

OFF 54 | DST 8 | Betrayal Index: +46, W-L: 17-32 (.347), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 2-18 (.100, 52nd best)

It’s a little surprising to see how well Darnold’s teams have played in the defense/special teams component, but the Jets and Panthers have had their moments on defense.

 

Quarterbacks from around the NFC South, with two old foes ranked at or near the top:

1. Drew Brees

OFF 2 | DST 51 | Betrayal Index: -49, W-L: 84-58 (.592), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-49 (.430, ninth best)

The “Bountygate” investigation and punishment dismantled a defensive culture that, while effective on the field, became outdated overnight. Brees could have structured his contracts more favorably to help the Saints build around him, but he was under no obligation to do so.

3. Matt Ryan

OFF 8 | DST 49 | Betrayal Index: -41, W-L: 81-86 (.485), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 37-75 (.330, 20th best)

The Falcons never ranked higher than 24th in combined defensive and special-teams EPA in any of Ryan’s final nine seasons with Atlanta. The offense ranked in the top 10 five times during that stretch.

15. Jameis Winston

OFF 28 | DST 41 | Betrayal Index: -13, W-L: 33-44 (.429), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-33 (.227, 40th best)

Winston’s teams have matched Kyler Murray’s teams for offensive EPA per game. Winston has the worse won-lost record because his teams haven’t been as strong on defense/special teams.

30. Marcus Mariota

OFF 34 | DST 32 | Betrayal Index: +2, W-L: 30-33 (.476), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 11-23 (.324, 22nd best)

The average offensive output for Mariota in his starts matches the average for games with Tyrod Taylor in the lineup.

25. Tom Brady

OFF 3 | DST 5 | Betrayal Index: -2, W-L: 138-44 (.758), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-34 (.553, second best)

Brady’s top-five rankings on both offense and defense/special teams over the past decade separate him from Rodgers, Brees and the other great quarterbacks. The glittering record in betrayal games is also notable. His Super Bowl comeback victory against Atlanta qualifies as one of those victories.

 

Others of general interest:

2. Justin Herbert

OFF 9 | DST 53 | Betrayal Index: -44, W-L: 15-17 (.469), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-15 (.430, 17th best)

The Chargers struggled on defense and/or special teams long before Herbert’s arrival, which is why you’ll be reading about Philip Rivers shortly. With a defensive-minded head coach and an offseason spending spree on defensive pieces, the 2022 outlook should be positive. A tough schedule of opposing quarterbacks will be challenging, however.

5. Aaron Rodgers

OFF 5 | DST 43 | Betrayal Index: -38, W-L: 105-53-1 (.664), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 42-44-1 (.489, 5th best)

The last time the Packers ranked among the top 10 in combined defensive and special-teams EPA, they won the Super Bowl. That was after the 2010 season, when they were third. The team has averaged a No. 20 ranking since 2012.

6. Patrick Mahomes

OFF 1 | DST 37 | Betrayal Index: -36, W-L: 58-16 (.784), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 29-16 (.644, best)

The Chiefs have ranked 18th or better on defense/special teams twice in four seasons with Mahomes as their starter. Those were the two seasons Kansas City reached the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ Kansas City offenses have averaged 9.3 EPA per start, easily the best figure associated with any of the 54 quarterbacks. That’s how Mahomes has gone 29-16 in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams, by far the best win rate among the 54 quarterbacks. The Chiefs are 29-0 when the they finish games with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. No one else on this list is better than 38-3 (Luck).

8. Deshaun Watson

OFF 12 | DST 45 | Betrayal Index: -33, W-L: 29-27 (.518), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-24 (.294, 26th best)

The Texans were a mess around Watson in Houston, which is how they went only 29-27 with him in the lineup.

9. Andrew Luck

OFF 13 | DST 39 | Betrayal Index: -26, W-L: 57-37 (.606), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 19-34 (.358, 15th best)

The Colts’ lack of support for Luck went beyond the offensive line. The defense also lagged during some of his seasons, although the special-teams EPA was generally pretty good. Luck’s 38-3 record in games when the Colts had positive combined EPA on defense/special teams was the second-best mark behind the 29-0 record for Mahomes in those games.

10. Matthew Stafford

OFF 19 | DST 44 | Betrayal Index: -25, W-L: 77-81-1 (.487), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 30-62-1 (.328, 21st best)

Expanding beyond the 2012-21 time period to examine Stafford’s full career, minus his injury-shortened 2010 and 2019 seasons, we can say this about his won-lost record: Stafford is 49-32 (.605) in the five seasons when his teams’ combined defensive/special-teams ranking was best, compared to 33-63 (.344) in the other seasons.

13. Dak Prescott

OFF 7 | DST 22 | Betrayal Index: -15, W-L: 54-35 (.607), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 22-24 (.478, sixth best)

The Cowboys ranked third in combined defense/special-teams EPA last season, posting four of their five best single-game performances of the Prescott era. Similar production could be helpful this season if Dallas falls off on offense with a lesser receiving corps.

19. Peyton Manning

OFF 4 | DST 10 | Betrayal Index: -6, W-L: 50-15 (.769), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 14-12 (.538, fourth best)

It’s no shock that Manning owns the best win rate in the extreme betrayal games with a 5-4 mark, except for the fact that this timeframe excludes his physical prime years. Manning owns the most extreme victory for any of the 54 quarterbacks over the past decade, 51-48 against the Cowboys in 2013. That game saw Romo top 500 yards passing, only to have his late pass picked off by Danny Trevathan. Denver won that game despite finishing with minus-27.0 combined EPA on defense/special teams.

26. Jimmy Garoppolo

OFF 10 | DST 12 | Betrayal Index: -2, W-L: 37-16 (.698), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 12-10 (.553, third best)

The league views Garoppolo as a Tier 3 quarterback who wins largely because of superior offensive scheming paired with a strong defense. It’s interesting to see Garoppolo with a winning record in games his team finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Those victories include 48-46 against Brees’ Saints in a 2019 game that saw San Francisco win despite finishing minus-20.9 in EPA on defense/special teams.

27. Kyler Murray

OFF 27 | DST 28 | Betrayal Index: -1, W-L: 22-24-1 (.479), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 6-20 (.231, 39th best)

Murray actually won the start in which his Cardinals performed their worst from a combined EPA standpoint on defense and special teams. That victory: 34-33 against Atlanta in 2019 Week 7, when Murray passed for 340 yards and three touchdowns.

33. Russell Wilson

OFF 15 | DST 7 | Betrayal Index: +8, W-L: 113-60-1 (.652), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 24-39 (.381, 14th best)

Seattle finished 36 percent of Wilson’s starts with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. Only Trubisky and Lamar Jackson have had it better by that measure over the past decade.

34. Lamar Jackson

OFF 11 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +10, W-L: 38-15 (.717), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 7-10 (.412, 12th best)

Jackson has gotten greater support from his defense and special teams than any quarterback on this list. He has also won some of the most difficult games. Jackson is 3-3 record in those extreme betrayal games when Baltimore finished with especially bad EPA on defense/special teams (minus-10 or worse). Peyton Manning (5-4) is the only quarterback on this list with a better record in those games over the past decade. Mahomes is 10-11 in those games, followed by Jackson, Herbert (3-4), Burrow (2-3), Brees (16-29), Brady (8-15) and Rodgers (13-26).

37. Carson Wentz

OFF 25 | DST 11 | Betrayal Index: +14, W-L: 44-41-1 (.517), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 10-26 (.278, 30th best)

Wentz’s Colts finished six games last season with positive EPA on offense. His new team, Washington, had five such games.

40. Josh Allen

OFF 20 | DST 2 | Betrayal Index: +18, W-L: 42-24 (.636), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 11-14 (.440, eighth best)

Allen has shown he can win a solid percentage of games with less support from his defense and/or special teams. He hasn’t had to do that frequently because Buffalo has generally been very strong in those phases.

42. Jared Goff

OFF 32 | DST 13 | Betrayal Index: +19, W-L: 47-40-1 (.54), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 17-25 (.405, 13th best)

Offensive EPA per start for teams with Goff in the lineup rose from minus-20.5 in 2016 to 3.3 in 2017 and 7.9 in 2019 before falling each season since then. Can he turn it around this season?

43. Daniel Jones

OFF 50 | DST 29 | Betrayal Index: +21, W-L: 12-25 (.324), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-16 (.158, 46th best)

Jones’ offenses have been about as productive as offenses with Brock Osweiler in the lineup. Will that change with new coaching?

46. Joe Burrow

OFF 36 | DST 9 | Betrayal Index: +27, W-L: 15-14-1 (.517). W-L with negative team DST EPA: 5-7 (.417, 10th best)

The Bengals jumped to 13th in offensive EPA last season after ranking 27th in Burrow’s injury-shortened rookie starts. The defense has been Cincy’s strength in his starts overall.

53. Mitchell Trubisky

OFF 40 | DST 3 | Betrayal Index: +37, W-L: 29-23 (.558), W-L with negative team DST EPA: 4-13 (.235, 36th best)

The Bears went 12-4 in 2018 with Trubisky ranking third in Total QBR, boosted by his own rushing production. Chicago ranked 13th in offensive EPA that season while leading the league in combined EPA on defense/special teams. Chicago ranked among the top 10 in defense/special teams in every season Trubisky started, contributing to his winning record as a starter overall.

[LinvilleGorge]

That's not a QB betrayal index, it's an offense betrayal index. It doesn't do anything to factor in how much of the offensive burden the QB is carrying.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

That's not a QB betrayal index, it's an offense betrayal index. It doesn't do anything to factor in how much of the offensive burden the QB is carrying.

Fair point, and I think some of that gets addressed in the individual quarterback comments.

Like I said though, not really my thing. I did find it at least somewhat interesting anyway and I think Mike Sando's a really good writer.

[4Corners]

wow Scott is on fire today

 

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

wow Scott is on fire today

No, but I was last night.

Lady Cowboy Fan made burritos. But turns out when she went shopping, she mistakenly grabbed the ultra spicy jalapenos rather than the mild ones. And my burritos were loaded with them

I've been the recipient of several apologies since.

[4Corners]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

No, but I was last night.

Lady Cowboy Fan made burritos. But turns out when she went shopping, she mistakenly grabbed the ultra spicy jalapenos rather than the mild ones. And my burritos were loaded with them

I've been the recipient of several apologies since.

When are u gonna slip her the burrito grande 

[ThPantherFan]

15 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Fair point, and I think some of that gets addressed in the individual quarterback comments.

Like I said though, not really my thing. I did find it at least somewhat interesting anyway and I think Mike Sando's a really good writer.

I love you brother.  This comment isn't about you putting this up but the fact that someone came up with idiotic index is .....

[ThPantherFan]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

No, but I was last night.

Lady Cowboy Fan made burritos. But turns out when she went shopping, she mistakenly grabbed the ultra spicy jalapenos rather than the mild ones. And my burritos were loaded with them

I've been the recipient of several apologies since.

I love jalapenos.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, 4Corners said:

When are u gonna slip her the burrito grande 

Sometime after I get off the Toiletto Seato

[Mr. Scot]

5 minutes ago, ThPantherFan said:

I love you brother.  This comment isn't about you putting this up but the fact that someone came up with idiotic index is .....

Understood. Like I said, not my thing either. Ive never been a stats and rankings guy.

But I do try to sometimes post things that might interest others, even if I don't find them personally appealing. Everything ain't about me

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Mr. Scot

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, ThPantherFan said:

I love jalapenos.

So do I...

... but generally in moderation

[Louie]

It's on par with what the eye test has said. Interesting article. 

[4Corners]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Sometime after I get off the Toiletto Seato

Were they fresh jalapeños or pickled? Fresh ones pack a punch 

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, 4Corners said:

Were they fresh jalapeños or pickled? Fresh ones pack a punch 

All I know is they were hot.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Mr. Scot