Breaking down the Panthers 2022 schedule

[Jon Snow]

4 hours ago, hepcat said:

I'm going to break down each Panthers game this year and come to a conclusion on a best-case, likely-case, and worst-case scenario for a final record. I'm rating games as "LIKELY WIN", "TOSS-UP", and "LIKELY LOSS". 

Best case - Panthers win all the "likely win", "toss-up", and win 1 to 2 of "likely loss" games on the schedule.

Likely case - Panthers win all the "likely win" games on the schedule and 1 to 2 of "toss up" games. They lose all of the "likely loss" games.

Worst case - Panthers win only some of the "likely win" games and lose all of the "toss up" and "likely loss" games. 

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Overall, 2022 on paper appears to be a more difficult schedule than in 2021. The Panthers missed an opportunity to slip into the playoffs against a weak schedule last season. The 9-8 Eagles slipped into the wildcard last year. The NFC East was not very good in 2021 and the Panthers managed to lose every game against that division last season. 

But anyway, here's my week-to-week breakdown.

Week 1 vs Cle. LIKELY WIN. The Panthers start off the season against a Cleveland Browns team with an uncertain QB situation. After trading for Deshaun Watson this offseason, it's uncertain when exactly he will play for them due to an ongoing NFL appeal to increase the 6 game suspension he already received. It is a revenge opportunity for former Browns QB Baker Mayfield, who is more than likely starting for the Panthers. I see this as a likely win because of that reason, but the Browns running game and the weak Panthers run defense could swing this game in the other direction. 

Week 2 @ NYG. TOSS UP. Week 2 pits the Panthers off against a perpetually rebuilding Giants team. Last season, the Giants whooped a sorry-ass Panthers team in a game where Sam Darnold looked completely inept, and the rest of the team completely gave up. It was the most pitiful game I've watched the Panthers play under Matt Rhule and that's really saying something considering how bad the team has been since he took over as head coach. I rate this game as a toss up but the Panthers should honestly win this game just to save face for last years debacle. 

Week 3 vs NO. TOSS UP. The Panthers head into Week 3 going against a transitioning Saints team hoping Jameis Winston stays healthy. I have this feeling this might be a year the Saints finally fall apart now that Brees and Sean Payton aren't around, but they still have enough talent on the roster to be competitive every week. Unless half the coaching staff doesn't show up like the game against the Saints last season, I just can't rate them a likely win due to the fact these games against a division opponent are always close, so it's a toss-up for me. 

Week 4 vs Ari. LIKELY WIN. This week kicks off a murderer's row of games for the Panthers, facing off against 4 straight playoff teams from 2021. On paper, the Cardinals should come to Bank of America stadium and destroy the Panthers. But I just don't see that happening. The Panthers have totally and completely owned the Cardinals for the last decade, and that streak has continued even under Matt Rhule. I don't see that changing, because the Cardinals are one of the sorriest franchises to ever exist in any sport ever created on planet Earth. Panthers win. 

Week 5 vs SF. LIKELY LOSS. Kyle Shanahan's team comes to Bank of America stadium after narrowly missing a second Superbowl appearance last season. Shanahan is in another world as a head coach than Matt Rhule and his haphazardly assembled coaching staff. And talent wise, the 49ers are head and shoulders above the Panthers. Being at home, and the "Any Given Sunday" mentality, it's not impossible the Panthers win this game, but it would be quite the upset if the Panthers could pull it off.

Week 6 @ LAR. LIKELY LOSS. Ditto what I said above, and then some. Panthers have to make a cross-country trip to play the reigning champs. This one will probably be ugly.

Week 7 vs TB. LIKELY LOSS. The Panthers have yet to beat the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived. The Bucs have a stacked roster and have owned the Panthers under Matt Rhule. I don't see the Panthers winning this one, even at home. 

Week 8 @ ATL. LIKELY WIN. This week provides a break for the Panthers in their murderer's row schedule with a trip to Atlanta to face a likely bad Falcons team. The Panthers used to be guaranteed to lose in Atlanta, but somehow Matt Rhule has turned that fortune around, winning in Atlanta twice so far as head coach of the Panthers. The Falcons offense has potential to be completely anemic in 2022, and I think the Panthers should pull this one off.

Week 9 @ CIN. LIKELY LOSS. I was very close to rating this game as a tossup, because I think the Bengals wildly overachieved in 2021 and will probably have a Superbowl Hangover like none other. Probably as bad as the 2016 Panthers. But since this is a road game for the Panthers and Matt Rhule's Panthers have only been able to beat really bad teams on the road, I see this as a likely loss. The Bengals offense is still stacked with talent and their defense can do enough to skew the game their way. 

Week 10 vs ATL. LIKELY WIN. This is a must-win game for a Panthers team to have ANY hope of making any sort of noise next season. You can't lose to the likely worst team in the division at home. Atlanta is devoid of talent up and down the roster. Losing to Atlanta even once next season is totally unacceptable. 

Week 11 @ BAL. LIKELY LOSS. Traveling to Baltimore for a Week 11 matchup against the Ravens has potential to be a quality upset, or a complete disaster. The Ravens have fallen hard from their success in 2019 due to injuries and other factors, but this could be a season they get back on track. Their running game and Lamar Jackson's running ability against a Panthers defense that struggles to stop the run, this could be the type of game that gets out of hand quickly. I think it's a likely loss, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Panthers upset the Ravens if they are dealing with injury problems like last season. 

Week 12 vs DEN.  LIKELY LOSS. I am pretty much guaranteeing the Panthers lose this game. Too many negative juju factors going against them in this game. Russell Wilson owns the Panthers (except in 2015), the Broncos own the Panthers, and I just don't see the Panthers managing a win out of this one. 

Week 13 <bye> 

Week 14 @ SEA. TOSS UP. The post-Russell Wilson era in Seattle could open the door for the Panthers to make a second cross-country trip more favorable than their earlier season trip to LA. But Seattle is still going to be well-coached and could surprise a lot of people with how competitive they will be next season. They'll likely lean heavily on the run and again, I expect the run defense to be a weakness on the Panthers. I don't think this is a likely win due to having to travel to Seattle, but it's a game I think the Panthers could sneak up and win without anyone being too surprised.

Week 15 vs PIT. TOSS UP. Pittsburgh, like Seattle the week before, is a team transitioning from their long-time franchise QB. Who will be the starting QB in Pittsburgh next season? The Panthers could be seeing Matt Rhule's friend Kenny Pickett by this point in the season. Pittsburgh could be shaping up to have a growing pains season next year, but even still, the Steelers have completely owned the Panthers for a very long time. The Panthers haven't beaten the Steelers during the regular season since...wait for it....1996. Could this be the year? I think it could be, but given that history, this is an obvious toss-up situation. 

Week 16 vs DET. LIKELY WIN. I expect Detroit to be better in 2022 than in 2021. But let's be real, we're talking about the Lions here. Jared Goff is not a good QB. And despite Dan Campbell's rah rah style, I don't really expect them to be winning a lot of games this season. The Panthers should win this game at home, as it's the last home game against a likely bad opponent. A loss here would likely mean the Panthers are looking at a new coaching staff next season because Matt Rhule has already been fired for poor performance. 

Week 17 @ TB. LIKELY LOSS. Woof. The end of the season takes the Panthers on the road against two tough division opponents. I'm not hopeful the Panthers will be pulling off the upset down in Tampa Bay in Week 17. I think it's more likely the Panthers are already knee deep into the coaching search for 2023 at this point. But hey, anything is possible. But either way, even if the Panthers overachieve, good luck taking down the GOAT in his house. 

Week 18 @ NO. LIKELY LOSS. The Panthers haven't beaten the Saints in the Superdome since the 2015 Superbowl season. The game in 2018 where the Saints played their backups does not count. Even without Brees and Sean Payton, the Saints are still one of the best teams at home. The Superdome is a real homefield advantage. This is an extremely tough end of season game. Could the Panthers win it? Sure. Will they? Probably not. 

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Okay the final tallies. 

LIKELY WIN: 5 games. TOSS UP: 4 games. LIKELY LOSS: 8 games.

BEST CASE: 10-11 wins

LIKELY CASE: 6-7 wins.

WORST CASE: 3-4 wins. 

If everything clicks, a 10-11 win season would be an incredible achievement given what the 2020 and 2021 Panthers teams managed to vomit up onto the field. I think this would take a lot of luck to happen. 

I think a 6-7 win season is most likely. I can't understate how much harder the 2022 schedule looks compared to the previous two seasons. Will this be enough to keep Matt Rhule?

A complete disaster of a season would see the Panthers win only 3-4 games. There's too much talent on the team to win any less than that. But if the Panthers are 3-9 or 4-8 going into December, I think you gotta fire Matt Rhule. 

 

Brother, I gave you pie just for putting all that thought into that and going through the trouble of typing all of it out here. But it's way too early to be thinking about that.  Besides, you forgot to do a TL/dr version. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Jon Snow

[Shocker]

Thing is no one really knows how good/bad any of these teams will be…especially after the season mid point.  We have to be at least near 500 at the mid point or the human condition kicks in and the players don’t see value in sacrificing to win meaningless games.

[ZoneRead]

I don't expect much until we get a new coach.....and a franchise qb

[pantherj]

I think we win 7 games. The Cleveland game will be fascinating to watch because we're facing a very good team without their starting QB. I think we'll squeak out a win, but if we lose then the season could go much worse than 7 wins.

[PNW_PantherMan]

Everyone saying the Browns game is a win makes me think its a loss.

[DeeJay]

15-1-1

[Ricky Spanish]

6 hours ago, CRA said:

No real disagreement overall.  I agree with your conclusion of best, likely, worst scenarios. 

If I was nitpicking I would move Browns and Cards to toss ups though. 

I am one of the most down on this franchise posters on this board right now.

Nah, We will beat the Cardinals. We are still exacting our revenge after they masacred our boy Jake back in the playoffs of 09.

At the very WORST, we will be 1-16, with that one win coming against the Cardinals.

It is known. 

[poundaway]

7 Winnable Games: Browns (wo Watson),2x Atlanta, Seattle, Giants, Steelers, Lions

Potential Upsets: 2xSaints, Cards, Broncos, Ravens, 9ers (essentially rookie  QB)

Major Upsets: 2xBucs, Rams, Bengals (superbowl hangover?)

If you look at the NFC,  my best guess  for playoffs are Bucs, Rams, Cowboys and Packers as division champs, and the  Eagles, 9ers and Saints are the my best guess wildcard teams.

If we win the winnable games, beat the Saints once and Trey Lance stinks it up, we could sneak in a wild card spot. 

7 wins doesn't seem crazy at this point.  Playoffs look unlikely but remotely possible.

Then again Baker took a team that was 1-31 and won 7 games.  Baker can be a good QB, McAdoo can be a good OC.  I know many here think our D sucks, and we lost 2 of the best D players  (Reddick and Gilmore), but I believe the return of Horn, CJ's improvement, and the additions of Woods, Littleton, Smith, and Ionnnitis could make for an above average D.
 

[Tomcatn]

Not setting my expectations very high, won't have that far to fall if things go south. My worry is Rhule not adjusting during game time. I think this is the teams biggest fault.

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

People are starting to believe.  The Carolina Panthers (+25000) have received the third most money at Caesars Sportsbook to finish with the NFL's best regular season record.  

Yes, I am sure the odds definitely help, but 3rd most money... Sharks are smelling something in the water....

[Sgt Schultz]

I think we benefit from playing the Browns early, but it is a tough match-up for us.  It's not that I think Watson will be back this year (I expect him to be out all of 2022), but at some point they will adapt.  That said, if they focus on the run again and are effective at it, they may not need to adapt in week 1.  Our defense will have to prove they can stop that and not get pushed around.  Jumping on them early will make life easier.

The opposite is true of the Steelers and Seahawks.  I don't like either of those teams this year, but they have solid coaching staffs who will have 10+ games to figure it out by the time we play them.  Our track record "down the stretch" in recent years has been bad.  Meanwhile, if my dislike is accurate, they could be teams that start poorly and then play more respectably as the season progresses.

There is no reason in the world we should be a tossup against the Giants, but I agree, we are.  I don't like the Falcons at all (I think the barometer may wind up being whether we sweep them) and I'm not high on the Saints, either. 

As was said, there will be some teams that will fall short of their expectations (I could see the Niners and/or Arizona falling into that) and some will be better than expected (maybe the Lions, but that would not take much).  Those things usually balance out.

All of that to say I pretty much agree with hepcat's overall analysis.  We could get off to a 3-0 or even 4-0 start again, so I might raise 8 wins to the upper end of the most likely scenario because of some of the above thoughts.  But, the problem is while the above comments are all based on unknowns (other than the Falcons, who should be awful), we have a lot of unknowns, ourselves.  We've all been disappointed before believing our unknowns would work themselves out.

[mrcompletely11]

Just now, Sgt Schultz said:

I think we benefit from playing the Browns early, but it is a tough match-up for us.  It's not that I think Watson will be back this year (I expect him to be out all of 2022), but at some point they will adapt.  That said, if they focus on the run again and are effective at it, they may not need to adapt in week 1.  Our defense will have to prove they can stop that and not get pushed around.  Jumping on them early will make life easier.

The opposite is true of the Steelers and Seahawks.  I don't like either of those teams this year, but they have solid coaching staffs who will have 10+ games to figure it out by the time we play them.  Our track record "down the stretch" in recent years has been bad.  Meanwhile, if my dislike is accurate, they could be teams that start poorly and then play more respectably as the season progresses.

There is no reason in the world we should be a tossup against the Giants, but I agree, we are.  I don't like the Falcons at all (I think the barometer may wind up being whether we sweep them) and I'm not high on the Saints, either. 

As was said, there will be some teams that will fall short of their expectations (I could see the Niners and/or Arizona falling into that) and some will be better than expected (maybe the Lions, but that would not take much).  Those things usually balance out.

All of that to say I pretty much agree with hepcat's overall analysis.  We could get off to a 3-0 or even 4-0 start again, so I might raise 8 wins to the upper end of the most likely scenario because of some of the above thoughts.  But, the problem is while the above comments are all based on unknowns (other than the Falcons, who should be awful), we have a lot of unknowns, ourselves.  We've all been disappointed before believing our unknowns would work themselves out.

Some dude on the tony kornheiser show this week said in theory its possible the arbiter of the watson case could look at the punishment and say "he doesnt even need to be suspended at all".   Not likely for sure but its an option.  Will be interesting to see this play out

[Mr. Scot]

7 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Some dude on the tony kornheiser show this week said in theory its possible the arbiter of the watson case could look at the punishment and say "he doesnt even need to be suspended at all".   Not likely for sure but its an option.  Will be interesting to see this play out

The guy that Goodell appointed has worked with the NFL before, and generally given them what they wanted.

Theoretically he could lower the suspension, but I don't think anybody is taking that idea too seriously.

(least of all Watson and the Browns)

Edited August 12, 2022 by Mr. Scot

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

The guy that Goodell appointed has worked with the NFL before, and generally given them what they wanted.

Theoretically he could lower the suspension, but I don't think anybody is taking that idea too seriously.

(least of all Watson and the Browns)

For sure but like you said, in theory its an option