Re: Last year's defense

[Mr. Scot]

2 hours ago, poundaway said:

Mr Scot:  I watched the games so I knows stuff.

Well, let's just say I find it preferable to "I didn't watch (or understand) the games, but I looked up stats so I know stuff"

[poundaway]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Well, let's just say I find it preferable to "I didn't watch (or understand) the games, but I looked up stats so I know stuff"

As, I said, I don't know how anyone watched the games last season and came away thinking we lost because of our D.  Which game was the shootout?

Edited July 25, 2022 by poundaway

[CamTheMan]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Well, let's just say I find it preferable to "I didn't watch (or understand) the games, but I looked up stats so I know stuff"

I watched every game as well, some multiple times unfortunately. Since we disagree, stats help us look at what objectively happened. 

 

17 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Stats. Well...except the ones about wins, losses and scoring (i.e. the only ones that matter).

Wins and losses is a team stat dependent on so many factors. We won 5 games and had chances in many more even though we had the worst offense in the league and a below average special teams. We would have had a top 3 pick if our defense was also below average. Points allowed is a basic stat, just as yards allowed is a basic stat. Neither of them tell the whole story. Hence why we should look at efficiency stats rather than the most basic stats possible. It’s becoming increasingly obvious you don’t actually care about having a debate and would rather just say “I watched the games so I win.” You won’t change your mind no matter what evidence is presented to you lol

[poundaway]

On 7/23/2022 at 2:12 PM, top dawg said:

 No one is going to convince me that it's a bad thing that we were the #2 defense in yards allowed. Will that make us winners? Hell no. But it's better than being #31 in yards allowed.

 

Its fascinating how many huddlers hate that stat.

Damn Rhule for having the second fewest yards allowed.  Hate that guy. /sarc

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, CamTheMan said:

I watched every game as well, some multiple times unfortunately. Since we disagree, stats help us look at what objectively happened. 

Wins and losses is a team stat dependent on so many factors. We won 5 games and had chances in many more even though we had the worst offense in the league and a below average special teams. We would have had a top 3 pick if our defense was also below average. Points allowed is a basic stat, just as yards allowed is a basic stat. Neither of them tell the whole story. Hence why we should look at efficiency stats rather than the most basic stats possible. It’s becoming increasingly obvious you don’t actually care about having a debate and would rather just say “I watched the games so I win.” You won’t change your mind no matter what evidence is presented to you lol

And here I thought you'd already proved your point with "overwhelming data"

The difference between us is that I don't need to look back at stats to know what I saw. I understood it the first time. And one of the things I understand is that people who have bought into the narrative that the offense was the only bad unit last year are deluding themselves.

Our offense was bad, but the best compliment I can give to the defense was "less bad". And no, that doesn't equal "good".

The vast majority of that falls on Phil Snow who employed college style schemes against pro offenses and OCs who figured out how to beat him easily while he never came up with any sort of counter.

Can they be better this year? If Snow is still the sole DC, I wouldn't bet on it. The overall talent isn't significantly improved with the possible exception of a healthy Jaycee Horn. So unless guys like Wilks or someone can help Phil Snow defend against a pro level attack, I don't see any reason for high expectations.

 

[CamTheMan]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

The difference between us is that I don't need to look back at stats to know what I saw. I understood it the first time.

Na, the difference between us is that you will watch something once live and believe you know everything and I’ll watch it multiple times and use stats to help me understand it further, and I still will say I have more I need to understand. You’ll sit there and say everyone, including quantitative statistics, is wrong.. while you know what REALLY happened.

You’ve said multiple things that objectively made zero sense at all, the worst being that our defense was bad to start games and couldn’t defend the run early. That’s already been disproved easily and is obviously wrong to anyone who actually watched the game, but you’ll sit there and die on your hill rather than just simple admit you were wrong about something. It happens, move on.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, CamTheMan said:

Na, the difference between us is that you will watch something once live and believe you know everything and I’ll watch it multiple times and use stats to help me understand it further, and I still will say I have more I need to understand. You’ll sit there and say everyone, including quantitative statistics, is wrong.. while you know what REALLY happened.

You’ve said multiple things that objectively made zero sense at all, the worst being that our defense was bad to start games and couldn’t defend the run early. That’s already been disproved easily and is obviously wrong to anyone who actually watched the game, but you’ll sit there and die on your hill rather than just simple admit you were wrong about something. It happens, move on.

Like you told me you were doing...hours ago?

I'll give you the best thing I ever heard about stats: Stats can only tell you what happened. They can't tell you why. You need genuine football knowledge for that, and if you don't have it then all the stats in the world aren't going to help you.

Wish I could remember who said it, but I remember hearing it very well. And over fifty years of watching, studying and occasionally coaching the game, I've found that to be exceedingly true.

I know everybody these days wants to put everything down on a spreadsheet and think that means they understand football. Me? Although I personally like spreadsheets, it doesn't. No more than Madden ratings predict real performance.

[top dawg]

I really don't remember all these people saying that the defense was special. In fact the overall rankings say it was middle of the road, which is not exactly dog sh¡t, and which is more in line with what took place in the games (and I watched every one of them).  We had multiple injuries, inexperience, problems with getting off the field on third down, and had to overcome a terrible offense to boot. 

I've been watching football for 50 years like some here too. No cap!

I do believe that some within the media are trying to shoot sunshine up our asses regarding the defense, but I also believe that there is some reason to be optimisic with the young talent, and with some veteran additions that should at least be able to be average in Woods, Wilson and Ioaniddis. If we can stop the run more consistently and get off the field on third downs, we will move within the top 10 of overall defense. If we do one or the either, I think we'll move up to the top half of the league. I don't think it's all doom and gloom, but, yes, some of our defensive improvement will come down to the offense's efficiency or lack thereof.

[AU-panther]

On 7/23/2022 at 11:29 AM, Mr. Scot said:

To the people still trying to sell that "#2 in the league" narrative...

So other teams scores 7 points, we score 10, defense allows another TD and you lose 14-10 but it's the defenses fault????

I'm not saying our defense was great but the the above stat by itself is very incomplete.

Also you keep on trying to argue with all the people claiming the defense was great and those refencing the yards allowed per game but I really don't remember that many people saying that.  I agree that a few times some of the announcers referenced that stat but most reasonable people know that yards allowed alone doesn't tell the full picture.  

I doubt that many people here really think that we are the #2 defense in the league.

If you look at points allowed we were 20th, if you look at points scored we were 29th.  Even if you look at some of the advanced metrics that takes in account your opponents.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Points per Game | TeamRankings.com

Neither unit was stellar but by most reasonable stats our defense fell somewhere in the middle third (often towards the end of the middle third) and our offense was bottom third.

 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by AU-panther
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[Mr. Scot]

Matt Rhule in his pre-camp presser...

"Last year we were second, but we were not good enough in red zone and scoring defense, which obviously is what matters."

My work is done. If you guys want to argue from here on out, take it up with Matt Rhule

[Waldo]