Matt Corral could've went in the first round to the Steelers

[onmyown]

Personally, I wouldn’t get overhyped for Corral. I mean of course I’m rooting for him but the odds are against him.

I wouldn’t say drafting a qb is like throwing a dart, in a sense of where they are taken. There is plenty to show qbs taken early turn out better, that’s not a fact mind you, but a bonafide trend.

[NAS]

3 hours ago, onmyown said:

FWIW:

“There have been 27 quarterbacks selected in the third round in the past 20 years, and most of them weren’t successful in the NFL. By my standards, only one developed into a star, while four were better than average and had good careers. Thirteen had unmemorable careers, and the other nine fall somewhere in between. I divided the picks into five separate tiers. If history is any indication, Rudolph is going to have to beat the odds to be successful in the NFL.”

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/a-look-at-the-success-and-struggles-of-third-round-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/

I wonder how much of this is because 1st round  QBs get more opportunities because they are 1st rounders. If Darnold was drafted in the third round, he would be out of the league already.  Third rounders get one chance to shoot their shot and may not get another chance. That’s why Corral shouldn’t be rushed into starting unless he pulls a Russell Wilson, who came out of nowhere because Seattle had no intentions of starting him that year. Let him develop and ensure he knows the system before you find out if he can be the guy.

[kungfoodude]

32 minutes ago, NAS said:

I wonder how much of this is because 1st round  QBs get more opportunities because they are 1st rounders. If Darnold was drafted in the third round, he would be out of the league already.  Third rounders get one chance to shoot their shot and may not get another chance. That’s why Corral shouldn’t be rushed into starting unless he pulls a Russell Wilson, who came out of nowhere because Seattle had no intentions of starting him that year. Let him develop and ensure he knows the system before you find out if he can be the guy.

If that were true, when these guys went to other teams they would be successful. That is almost never the case.

To further the point of that article, since then the 3rd round QB's were:

Mason Rudolph 

Will Grier

Kellen Mond

Davis Mills

 

So far, just one possible hit out of that group(still early). 

And that's the point I am making, is that just by round drafted alone, we should all take a little bit of a step back and understand that Corral isn't statistically likely to be more than a backup QB.

Which, a backup caliber QB is still better than PJ Walker and Sam Darnold, so there is that.

[Mr. Scot]

7 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

32 teams apparently didn't think he was a 1st rounder. I mean....that literally happened.

Then it happened in another whole round.

So anyone claiming they had a first round grade on Corral, Willis, Howell, etc......they clearly didn't.

Eeehhh, not really...

There are dozens of players who don't get taken in the rounds where teams had them graded on an annual basis just due to how the boards fall.

Basically, it's possible to think someone is worthy of a first-round pick but not take them there because you think someone else is a little better (i.e. Pickett).

And of course there's also the factor of need...

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

I wonder how much of this is because 1st round  QBs get more opportunities because they are 1st rounders. If Darnold was drafted in the third round, he would be out of the league already.  Third rounders get one chance to shoot their shot and may not get another chance. That’s why Corral shouldn’t be rushed into starting unless he pulls a Russell Wilson, who came out of nowhere because Seattle had no intentions of starting him that year. Let him develop and ensure he knows the system before you find out if he can be the guy.

It doesnt matter once they get drafted.  If they can play they can play.  There is a reason they were not drafted in the first

[mrcompletely11]

43 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

And that's the point I am making, is that just by round drafted alone, we should all take a little bit of a step back and understand that Corral isn't statistically likely to be more than a backup QB.

 

Which IMO, is the exact reason he should be starting day 1.   See what he has, whats the worst that could happen.  Letting him ride the bench for 6ish games is just stupid

[Panthro]

7 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

32 teams apparently didn't think he was a 1st rounder. I mean....that literally happened.

Then it happened in another whole round.

So anyone claiming they had a first round grade on Corral, Willis, Howell, etc......they clearly didn't.

I think the appropriate way to think about this is position ranking +need  vs round grade

They had Corral #2

Panthers had him #1

[NAS]

12 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

It doesnt matter once they get drafted.  If they can play they can play.  There is a reason they were not drafted in the first

You missed the point. 

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, NAS said:

You missed the point. 

nah, pretty sure I got it

 

Once they get on the team it doesnt matter where they were drafted, if they can play they can play.  See wilson, Russell

[NAS]

29 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

nah, pretty sure I got it

 

Once they get on the team it doesnt matter where they were drafted, if they can play they can play.  See wilson, Russell

Yes you COMPLETELY missed the point (pun intended )

Some players can play sooner than others, but only first rounders get a chance to prove it over and over. Mid to late rounders don’t 

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

If that were true, when these guys went to other teams they would be successful. That is almost never the case.

To further the point of that article, since then the 3rd round QB's were:

Mason Rudolph 

Will Grier

Kellen Mond

Davis Mills

 

So far, just one possible hit out of that group(still early). 

And that's the point I am making, is that just by round drafted alone, we should all take a little bit of a step back and understand that Corral isn't statistically likely to be more than a backup QB.

Which, a backup caliber QB is still better than PJ Walker and Sam Darnold, so there is that.

The good news it Corral appears to have dropped because of off field concerns (Ian Rap mentioned the depression and alcohol) and that seems to be behind him (hopefully). Similar to Mills dropping because of injuries. Rudolph, Grier, and Mond were legit 3rd rounders IMO. If Corral can stay focused and read defenses (big if), he has a better shot to be a starter than the others. 

[Martin]

43 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

The good news it Corral appears to have dropped because of off field concerns (Ian Rap mentioned the depression and alcohol) and that seems to be behind him (hopefully). Similar to Mills dropping because of injuries. Rudolph, Grier, and Mond were legit 3rd rounders IMO. If Corral can stay focused and read defenses (big if), he has a better shot to be a starter than the others. 

I agree with this. Grier, Mond etc. just weren’t that good and was picked in the third round accordingly. Corral land Mills had talent to be taken earlier but had other potential issues that made them go later. If those issues show to be issues no longer, the potential is absolutely there. Big difference.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

The good news it Corral appears to have dropped because of off field concerns (Ian Rap mentioned the depression and alcohol) and that seems to be behind him (hopefully). Similar to Mills dropping because of injuries. Rudolph, Grier, and Mond were legit 3rd rounders IMO. If Corral can stay focused and read defenses (big if), he has a better shot to be a starter than the others. 

Yeah, and if you are gambling it's the most wise to take a gamble on a health issue or background guy. IMO, anyway. 

He's still a fairly flawed prospect even aside from the other issues.

[shaqattaq]

8 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I can understand if you want to lean on the "outlier" hope but the idea that teams had first round grades on guys that went in the 3rd-5th is fuging ludicrous.

The report only says that the Steelers had a rd 1 grade on him, but Pickett had a higher rd 1 grade. It could have worked the same for us , for example, we could have had a late rd 1 grade on him but not a #6. I think that most folks would now agree that no QB had a top 10 grade. Who really knows unless they were in the draft rooms.

Edit: FWIW, I was a proponent of Corral or Howell in Rd 2 if we traded back in rd 1, so I'm pretty happy to get him at #94.

Edited May 5, 2022 by shaqattaq