The 2022 Quarterback Slide

[Jon Snow]

2 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

The scenario above is why I think it's hard for non first round picks to get a fair chance to prosper in the NFL. Let's Corrall has a (12 TD's, 17 INTS, and 3,641 YDs, 71.9 RTG) at the end of the season and the Panthers and fail to show any improvement in the win column... or heaven forbid...actually win fewer games.

Most of the people on this board (for understandable reason) would probably be inclined to take one of the more highly rated QB's in the first round of the 2023 class. The new guy would come in as the clear cut favorite to be the starter by season's end. Corrall would have 3 yrs left on his deal. He'd likely viewed by the coaching staff as: 

1)a backup until the contract expired,

2) trade bait,

3) roster cut if the spot was needed for another player

In a couple of years there's a high probablity he'd be out of the league. 

The new guy could put up the exact same numbers and a large percentage of people would say "He's a rookie and needs more time to adapt to the NFL game." Or, "He needs a stronger team around him to really flourish" The above statement could very well be true. But, front office are always going to be more inclined to give the 1st rounder more opportunity/time to improve because they have more invested in him. It's obvious that NFL executives, and also fans unfortunately, look as any QB not taken in the 1st round as a 2nd or 3rd class NFL citizens.

FYI: Just in case you're interested, the above stats came were from Trevor Lawrence's 2021 rookie season. He had 3 games where he threw 3 INTS (no rookie had done accomplished that infamous feat in nearly a decade. https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/nfl/2022/01/06/jacksonville-jaguars-trevor-lawrence-latest-rookie-qb-three-3-interception-games/9077085002/

Still, he didn't come close to touching Peyton Manning's (a 1st round pick) record of 28 INTS in a season. 

If Corrall had a season like either of the above two players he'd be tarrred, feathered, and run out of town...mainly because he  isn't a 1st round pick.

 

 

 

That's thinking too far ahead for scenarios. You plan for the worst.  It's a competition until isn't not anymore.  In other words when someone is the clear cut starter you bring in the best available to compete. If you hadn't noticed the qb room is extremely thin on talent. Adding to it only makes it stronger.

[CRA]

6 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

The scenario above is why I think it's hard for non first round picks to get a fair chance to prosper in the NFL.

 

Look at Sam Darnold.  A NFL coach is about to trot him out there for the 5th straight season as a starter…..primarily because of where he was drafted.   

a 3rd round QB better swim the moment he is thrown into the water or he gets designated a career backup to bounce around the league.  He won’t get the opportunities to grow and evolve like a high draft pick.  

I think too many around the league overly value draft status vs play once guys have played in the NFL

[Basbear]

I dont know how a panther fan could be upset with Corral falling to 94, panthers were very lucky in this draft with all picks 1-7. 

I do feel the baylor CB will be cut, but 242...not going to upset me one bit. 

[SCO96]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

That's thinking too far ahead for scenarios. You plan for the worst.  It's a competition until isn't not anymore.  In other words when someone is the clear cut starter you bring in the best available to compete. If you hadn't noticed the qb room is extremely thin on talent. Adding to it only makes it stronger.

Jon, are you insinuating that PJ Walker and Sam Darnold are not upper echelon NFL QB's?!

Thou speakest Blasphemy 

[ForJimmy]

11 minutes ago, Basbear said:

I dont know how a panther fan could be upset with Corral falling to 94, panthers were very lucky in this draft with all picks 1-7. 

I do feel the baylor CB will be cut, but 242...not going to upset me one bit. 

Considering some of us wanted a trade down and draft Corral in the late/mid first we came out great! We got arguably the best player at a position of need in Icky and quite possibly the top QB in the class with minimal draft capital damage.

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

This passage convinces me that Corral was not #1 on the board--they seemed to equate them to a large degree, and as the number stayed at 4, they could back off.  When it dropped to 2--Howell and Corral--they started calling.

I don't know that it's that. I'd say more so that they had more than one QB they were comfortable with (which the article confirms).

I'd add i's not that they didn't have the capital as they didn't want to spend it.

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, SCO96 said:

Jon, are you insinuating that PJ Walker and Sam Darnold are not upper echelon NFL QB's?!

Thou speakest Blasphemy 

Prove me wrong. 

[Proudiddy]

I like NotSoAngryScout's take there.  That's how I view it.  As I have mentioned numerous times, even the pro evaluators have demonstrated they aren't great at hitting on QBs in the draft...  last I checked, at least when it came to the first round, where obviously a lot more is at stake if you miss, they are at like a sub-50% hit rate.  That is horrible considering the time and resources that go into the process that we don't have access to.  So, I think it is entirely possible a confluence of factors colluded to cause these guys to "fall."  But as he said, we'll see who is right.

Also would like to point out, again, it wasn't just media that was hyping up Howell after 2020.  They hype was legit, and some of that has to be attributed to the personnel guys openly praising prospects, be it to the media or within personnel circles.  So again, for him to go from a possible #1 overall to a 5th round pick based off one season...  I'm gonna cite that subpar hit rate I mentioned above again.  It makes no sense that the guy is unanimously loved based off one season, and then is a borderline NFL talent the next that drops to the 5th round.  Sounds like talent evaluators are just a fickle bunch who can also be easily influenced.  That, and I also think we are seeing a shift in positional value where the impact prospects could make from other positions is viewed as more of a priority when you have so many QBs from this class that had question marks for one reason or another.  These guys know in the past, plenty of guys got overdrafts because of the positional value of QBs, and if you miss on a first or second rounder that is billed as the future, you likely lose your job.  Not as likely to lose it if a WR doesn't pan out but you snagged a quality starting QB in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th.

[Luciu5]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

This passage convinces me that Corral was not #1 on the board--they seemed to equate them to a large degree, and as the number stayed at 4, they could back off.  When it dropped to 2--Howell and Corral--they started calling.

They didn't. I'm almost positive #1 was Pickett. I think most teams had Pickett as the #1 QB tbh.

But as far as the rest of this, when they decided not to trade up into the late second, when they decided to wait, per Fitterer, they said let's wait until two more QBs go then jump back in. So once Willis went, that's when they locked in a deal and moved up.

I don't know where Corral was on their board. Maybe they had a number that they felt were all basically equal and had little preference. I really wish we knew, but we probably never will. They certainly aren't going to say "we wanted A or B, but those guys went we had to get somebody!"

[45catfan]

4 hours ago, OldhamA said:

Well sure, but Brady has won 7 of the things, so that's taking a lot of them out of the equation. 

My point exactly.  Remove the anomaly and there you have it.  In statistics you have these things called 'outliers'.  Outliers are normally dismissed because they screw up the otherwise bell-shaped curve.  Yes, Brady is an outlier.  Name me 6th round and lower SB QBs with him out of the equation.  The list gets SUPER slim.

[Davidson Deac II]

5 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Is this a new dance move?

More of a football move that Pickett created.

 

[45catfan]

4 hours ago, SCO96 said:

Since 1980 (non Brady & non 1st round QB's to win SB's)

Joe Montana (3rd Round) 1981, 1984, 1988, 1989

Jeff Hostetler (3rd) 1990

Mark Rypien (6th) 1991

Brett Favre (2nd) 1996

Kurt Warner (undrafted) 1999

Brad Johnson (9th) 2001

Drew Brees (2nd) 2009

Russell Wilson (3rd) 2013

Nick Foles (3rd) 2017QB's drafted after round 1 have started a fair number of SB's as well. I didn't have time to post that list...but maybe later. 

Understanding there had been over 50 of these and looking at it with the other rare bird of Cool Joe out of it, it's very slim. So 3rd round and lower..STARTERS since 1980 with the Golden Children of Brady and Montana you have exactly four...Wilson, Johnson, Warner and Rypien. 

Brees was the top of the 2nd, before there were 32 teams.  Farve I think was 5th in the 2nd before 32 teams.  Hostetler took over for an injured Phil Simms midway through the season and wasn't the starter once Simms returned the next season.  Same thing With Foles, who took over for an injured Carson Wentz. 

Johnson was a 9th round pick; we don't even have 9 rounds anymore and Warner went undrafted.  So to say those were luck of the draw is an understatement.

 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by 45catfan

[CPantherKing]

6 hours ago, Darknight said:

I think Seattle's plan is to draft a QB next draft. That's the only thing that make sense to me.

They picked up Kaleb Eleby. Expect him to compete with Drew Lock. They comp Eleby to Russell Wilson.

This draft will have late rounders and undrafted QBs outperforming the top media hyped combine QBs.

Another interesting battle to watch is Kenny Pickett v Chris Oladokun. Steelers drafted 2 QBs.

As for the undrafted QBs, you will have Jack Coan developing under Matt Ryan and Aqeel Glass developing under Tom Brady. Cole Kelley is in camp with Wentz, Heinicke and Howell. I would not be the least bit surprised if Kelley ends up being the better QB out of that camp and ends up with the Saints if Washington does not keep him on the roster. The Saints had their eye on Glass and Kelley and ended up empty in the rush for the undrafted QBs.

Reminding me of the 1994 QB class. Shuler, Dilfer, Nussmeier, Miller, and Klein were the overhyped combine QB bunch. When the lights came on and games mattered Gus Frerotte and Glenn Foley were the ones who took the field on game day that were drafted in the late rounds. Dilfer struggled with the Bucs. The successful QBs from the 1994 draft did not hear their name called in the draft and now we remember their success more than any of the drafted QBs - Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, and Jay Fiedler.

Expect the 2022 late round and undrafted QBs to have more success than Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell.

Edited May 3, 2022 by CPantherKing

[shaqattaq]

17 hours ago, travisura said:

I think it probably just boils down to the media evaluations and the respective team evaluations being incongruent. The disparity, for one reason or another, was quite large this year.

It is unfortunate, though, that it seems that this incongruency apparently caused Howell to declare before he needed to. He probably wasn't the only one.

Most of the media is just regurgitating what someone else in the media already said. AND they appear to be looking more at need than actual talent available at the pick. Plus, QB's make headlines, they're the lead singers of the football world.

Also, Howell probably decided to be a pretty good QB in a weak draft than a pretty good QB in next year's strong draft.