The 2022 Quarterback Slide

[Panthro]

1 hour ago, OldhamA said:

Exactly. We didn't value him as a 2nd round prospect.

We did...we didn't have a 2nd rd pick and the cost was most likely a 1 or 2 next year +

[toldozer]

Qbs drive ratings.  Media outlets probably didn't believe these guys were that good either.  Defensive tackles don't get people to tune in or read online articles.  That's the bottom line. Media dollars made these quarterbacks "first round" picks

[SCO96]

42 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Yep, people say that plenty of 1st round QBs have been bust, but first rounders have overwhelmingly been the ones under center for Super Bowl Champions.  Take Brady out of the equation and the list non-first round SB winning QBs gets really thin.

Since 1980 (non Brady & non 1st round QB's to win SB's)

Joe Montana (3rd Round) 1981, 1984, 1988, 1989

Jeff Hostetler (3rd) 1990

Mark Rypien (6th) 1991

Brett Favre (2nd) 1996

Kurt Warner (undrafted) 1999

Brad Johnson (9th) 2001

Drew Brees (2nd) 2009

Russell Wilson (3rd) 2013

Nick Foles (3rd) 2017

QB's drafted after round 1 have started a fair number of SB's as well. I didn't have time to post that list...but maybe later.

 

 

 

 

[rayzor]

13 minutes ago, Panthro said:

We did...we didn't have a 2nd rd pick and the cost was most likely a 1 or 2 next year +

Which it sounds like they were really considering giving up but hedged their bets he'd still be there. 

[panthers55]

I think that if a quarterback had gone off in the top 10 it could have started a run on QBs.  Everyone thought Pittsburgh and Pickett were automatics so that didn't move the needle. Like others we just waited for the next one to drop before we got busy. I don't think we were alone. As it got deeper in the draft suddenly QB was the BPA. But I think the lack of success last year's quarterbacks had might have deterred teams who wanted a guy who could play right away this year from jumping on a rookie. If this class is much worse and last year's mostly sucked then all these guys were developmental outside of perhaps Pickett.

[poundaway]

It has to do with separation.

If you value all the QBs about the same, then you don't care which one you get, and you wait until nearly the last one is taken.  QB needy NFL teams didn't see much difference between the QB's. 
So the QB needy teams waited until more of the QB's were taken.  We didn't spring into action because we valued Corral as a 3rd rounder, we sprung into action because the Titans traded up to Willis. 

[Jon Snow]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Is that what NFL teams really think though or is that just what we fans think they think?

Fitterer has said more than once that Matt Corral is the future. And no, that's not something you "have to say" about a third round pick.

Yes, but if they happen to find themselves in a position to take a top 2 qb next year I doubt they pass. Fitterer will be calling that guy the "future".

I don't put much stock in that kind of talk until the season has played out.

[MHS831]

We were perhaps the most QB needy team.  If we had the draft capital, I am confident that we would have taken a QB earlier--we leaped when Howell and Corral fell into our strike zone. 

Fitterer praised Rhule by saying, "He talked to Billechick and did not raise our offer."  (paraphrasing).  That meant that we had a draft capital budget, and NE was probably looking for a 2023 second rounder at some point.  Rhule stayed firm, because we had a budget that we were sticking to--and he knew that there were 2 QBs on the board.  Had the deal fallen through at the end of the third, we could have moved up into the late fourth and STILL landed Howell--possibly both Howell and Corral (nobody knows).

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

They had to have valued someone if they entertained the idea in the first place.

What derailed them was the additional cost of trading up that far.

From the article...

“I had the card in my hand, and he looks at me and says, What do you want to do?” Fitterer said. “And we both just kind of took a moment, and we looked at the board, and we decided the right thing to do was to be patient. Let’s not overpay. Let’s be smart about this. Let’s not dig ourselves in a hole for next year. Let’s inch back on trading with these quarterbacks.”

At that point, he, Rhule and the group resolved to wait a little longer and, since they had enough conviction on a couple of the guys left, take another look when another quarterback came off the board.

It didn’t happen for a while. But eventually, 10 picks into the third round, the Falcons pulled Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder off the board. Twelve picks after that, the Titans drafted Liberty’s Malik Willis. And, stunned again by how guys at a certain position fell, the Panthers got aggressive and started making calls—very comfortable with the idea of taking either Ole Miss’s Matt Corral or North Carolina’s Sam Howell.

This passage convinces me that Corral was not #1 on the board--they seemed to equate them to a large degree, and as the number stayed at 4, they could back off.  When it dropped to 2--Howell and Corral--they started calling.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, panthers55 said:

I think that if a quarterback had gone off in the top 10 it could have started a run on QBs.  Everyone thought Pittsburgh and Pickett were automatics so that didn't move the needle. Like others we just waited for the next one to drop before we got busy. I don't think we were alone. As it got deeper in the draft suddenly QB was the BPA. But I think the lack of success last year's quarterbacks had might have deterred teams who wanted a guy who could play right away this year from jumping on a rookie. If this class is much worse and last year's mostly sucked then all these guys were developmental outside of perhaps Pickett.

The NFL did not know either--when you have invited players to the Green Room and they are still undrafted mid third round (like Willis), it shows that nobody really knew how this might play out.

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, Panthro said:

We did...we didn't have a 2nd rd pick and the cost was most likely a 1 or 2 next year +

And we didn't pull the trigger. Therefore, we didn't value him as a 2nd round pick. 

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, SCO96 said:

Since 1980 (non Brady & non 1st round QB's to win SB's)

Joe Montana (3rd Round) 1981, 1984, 1988, 1989

Jeff Hostetler (3rd) 1990

Mark Rypien (6th) 1991

Brett Favre (2nd) 1996

Kurt Warner (undrafted) 1999

Brad Johnson (9th) 2001

Drew Brees (2nd) 2009

Russell Wilson (3rd) 2013

Nick Foles (3rd) 2017

QB's drafted after round 1 have started a fair number of SB's as well. I didn't have time to post that list...but maybe later.

 

 

 

 

Since 1980 means 42 Super Bowls. 

Taking Brady out is not fair--he is part of the equation. (to support your point)

 I count about 19 Super Bowls total won by teams with non-first rounder QBs.

That is nearly half.  If you consider that most starting QBs were first rounders, it seems the non-first rounders have a pretty high win percentage.

[SCO96]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Yes, but if they happen to find themselves in a position to take a top 2 qb next year I doubt they pass. Fitterer will be calling that guy the "future".

I don't put much stock in that kind of talk until the season has played out.

The scenario above is why I think it's hard for non first round picks to get a fair chance to prosper in the NFL. Let's Corrall has a (12 TD's, 17 INTS, and 3,641 YDs, 71.9 RTG) at the end of the season and the Panthers and fail to show any improvement in the win column... or heaven forbid...actually win fewer games.

Most of the people on this board (for understandable reason) would probably be inclined to take one of the more highly rated QB's in the first round of the 2023 class. The new guy would come in as the clear cut favorite to be the starter by season's end. Corrall would have 3 yrs left on his deal. He'd likely viewed by the coaching staff as: 

1)a backup until the contract expired,

2) trade bait,

3) roster cut if the spot was needed for another player

In a couple of years there's a high probablity he'd be out of the league. 

The new guy could put up the exact same numbers and a large percentage of people would say "He's a rookie and needs more time to adapt to the NFL game." Or, "He needs a stronger team around him to really flourish" The above statement could very well be true. But, front office are always going to be more inclined to give the 1st rounder more opportunity/time to improve because they have more invested in him. It's obvious that NFL executives, and also fans unfortunately, look as any QB not taken in the 1st round as a 2nd or 3rd class NFL citizens.

FYI: Just in case you're interested, the above stats came were from Trevor Lawrence's 2021 rookie season. He had 3 games where he threw 3 INTS (no rookie had done accomplished that infamous feat in nearly a decade. https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/nfl/2022/01/06/jacksonville-jaguars-trevor-lawrence-latest-rookie-qb-three-3-interception-games/9077085002/

Still, he didn't come close to touching Peyton Manning's (a 1st round pick) record of 28 INTS in a season. 

If Corrall had a season like either of the above two players he'd be tarrred, feathered, and run out of town...mainly because he  isn't a 1st round pick.

 

 

 

[SCO96]

4 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Since 1980 means 42 Super Bowls. 

Taking Brady out is not fair--he is part of the equation. (to support your point)

 I count about 19 Super Bowls total won by teams with non-first rounder QBs.

That is nearly half.  If you consider that most starting QBs were first rounders, it seems the non-first rounders have a pretty high win percentage.

I think you misunderstood the intent of my post. I see it the same way you do. If Brady is left out of the equation, you'll still have 9 guys that won SB's that weren't drafted in the first round. And, as I stated you may have an equal number of non-first rounders who started a SB but lost. I'll try to find that data w/in the next 24 hours ann add it to this topic.