Examining the rookie seasons of the 2022 NFL projected QB starters

[trueblade]

Questions to examine: 

• When should Matt Corral start?
• When will Matt Rhule start Matt Corral?
• How much can you learn about a QBs future performance from heir rookie year?

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who started Week 1 of their rookie year: Murray, Mariota, Darnold, Burrow, Dak, Matt Ryan, Trevor, Stafford, Derek Carr, Mac Jones, Winston, Z. Wilson, Russ, Tannehill, Wentz.

Of this group, only Russ (11-5), Dak (13-3), Ryan (11-5), and Mac Jones (10-7) posted winning records their rookie year.

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who did not start a single game in their rookie years: Brady, Rodgers

(I will remind readers of this post that these two quarterback were cited directly by Rhule as examples in the post-draft news conference)

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who got their first start between Week 2 and Week 5 of their rookie years: Allen, Watson, Herbert, Fields, Daniel Jones, Trubisky,  Lance.

Of this group, no quarterback posted more losses than wins. Watson (3-3), and Lance (1-1) came closest.

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who got their first start after Week 5: Tua, Lamar, Goff, Drew Lock, Hurts, Cousins, Mahomes.

Of this group, only Goff (0-7) and Hurts (1-3) posted more losses than wins, though Cousins (1-0) and Mahomes (1-0) only played one game. Lamar (6-1), Tua (6-3), and Drew Lock (4-1) posted winning records. 

 

Projected 2022 NFL Starters who played more than 10 games in their rookie season: Trevor, Mac Jones, Murray, Dak, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Winston
Tannehill, Wentz, Herbert, Darnold, Z. Wilson, Russ, Mariota, Daniel Jones,  Trubisky, Allen, Burrow, Stafford, Fields.

 

Raw Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HjmVJBN4emuitYC5cbMvsc7OKMvY46eAtTqZEbzWnF0/

[kungfoodude]

When? If he plays better than Darnold in TC and the preseason....game 1.

With Rhule? I suspect after a pretty long string of losses. Perhaps 7-9 games into the year.

How much to learn? Well....that really depends on a lot. If he conclusively loses the job to Darnold, probably learn all you needed to know. Not being able to beat out the worst QB in the NFL is a big red flag. Now, if he gets a lot of burn in year 1....that's pretty complex. The things you want to see are improvement over the course of the season and not having really, really bad flaws. So, if you see him just not really being able to make reads, that's really bad. Even if he struggles somewhat in year 1, all is not lost. You want to see gradual improvement and the basic tools to be successful.

And you need to be sure his failures are all his. Our OL might still be a disaster. Our offensive playcalling might still be a disaster. Our defense might poo the bed constantly. Our running game might be nonexistent. Things like that just make it harder on a rookie QB and harder to judge his failures harshly.

[amcoolio]

You're missing Davis Mills

[trueblade]

8 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

You're missing Davis Mills

Nice catch. Thank you. I added him to the Google Doc.

Mills would go into the Projected 2022 NFL starters who got their first start between Week 2 and Week 5 of their rookie years. He did not post a winning record (2-9).

[Carolina Cajun]

3 games after cmc gets injured and darnold is again exposed as a dumpster fire behind planned parenthood...so prlly week 5 or 6.

[Jackie Lee]

46 minutes ago, Carolina Cajun said:

3 games after cmc gets injured and darnold is again exposed as a dumpster fire behind planned parenthood...so prlly week 5 or 6.

Corral will start the week after Rhule gets fired and McAdoo/Wilks take over. I prefer Wilks as he's more of a people person 

[CRA]

Really almost have to disconnect it from wins though.  A rookie QB having a losing record doesn’t mean the QB shouldn’t be playing or is bad.  Lot of times rookie QBs are playing for rebuilding teams or bad ones.  And they are rookies, it’s about growth and progression.  Not winning today but tomorrow 

Cam Newton started as a rookie and didn’t post a winning record.  Think starting him was the right call.   ROY, rookie record book, etc. 

even guys like a Davis Mills last year.  He didn’t win.  He showed some real promise.  Playing him was the right call. 

[ForJimmy]

31 minutes ago, CRA said:

Really almost have to disconnect it from wins though.  A rookie QB having a losing record doesn’t mean the QB shouldn’t be playing or is bad.  Lot of times rookie QBs are playing for rebuilding teams or bad ones.  And their rookies, it’s about growth and progression.  Not winning today but tomorrow 

Cam Newton started as a rookie and didn’t post a winning record.  Think starting him with the right call.   ROY, rookie record book, etc. 

even guys like a Davis Mills last year.  He didn’t win.  He showed some real promise.  Playing was the right call. 

Yeah Burrow was 2-7-1 before he got injured. Rookie years sometimes are just for the development of the QBs. These teams getting the top guys are in no position to make a playoff run, so they let the offense grow/develop with their young QB. The data will probably tell a different story if you look at top 10 drafted rookie QBs (excluding trade ups) record starting their rookie years. Players that fall later to better teams like Mac Jones, Lamar etc are naturally going to have better records. 

[mrcompletely11]

9 hours ago, trueblade said:

Questions to examine: 

• When should Matt Corral start?
• When will Matt Rhule start Matt Corral?
• How much can you learn about a QBs future performance from heir rookie year?

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who started Week 1 of their rookie year: Murray, Mariota, Darnold, Burrow, Dak, Matt Ryan, Trevor, Stafford, Derek Carr, Mac Jones, Winston, Z. Wilson, Russ, Tannehill, Wentz.

Of this group, only Russ (11-5), Dak (13-3), Ryan (11-5), and Mac Jones (10-7) posted winning records their rookie year.

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who did not start a single game in their rookie years: Brady, Rodgers

(I will remind readers of this post that these two quarterback were cited directly by Rhule as examples in the post-draft news conference)

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who got their first start between Week 2 and Week 5 of their rookie years: Allen, Watson, Herbert, Fields, Daniel Jones, Trubisky,  Lance.

Of this group, no quarterback posted more losses than wins. Watson (3-3), and Lance (1-1) came closest.

 

Projected 2022 NFL starters who got their first start after Week 5: Tua, Lamar, Goff, Drew Lock, Hurts, Cousins, Mahomes.

Of this group, only Goff (0-7) and Hurts (1-3) posted more losses than wins, though Cousins (1-0) and Mahomes (1-0) only played one game. Lamar (6-1), Tua (6-3), and Drew Lock (4-1) posted winning records. 

 

Projected 2022 NFL Starters who played more than 10 games in their rookie season: Trevor, Mac Jones, Murray, Dak, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Winston
Tannehill, Wentz, Herbert, Darnold, Z. Wilson, Russ, Mariota, Daniel Jones,  Trubisky, Allen, Burrow, Stafford, Fields.

 

Raw Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HjmVJBN4emuitYC5cbMvsc7OKMvY46eAtTqZEbzWnF0/

It’s not about wins

[rayzor]

10 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

When? If he plays better than Darnold in TC and the preseason....game 1.

How did Darnold do in TC last year? I don't really remember much other than them coddling him and holding him out of preseason games, which they likely won't do with either him or Corral this year. I don't think it was anything special from Darnold other than he's making all the throws and that kind of thing. Nothing really jaw dropping one way or the other, iirc.

 I guess point is, if it's Darnold's job to lose...if he doesn't do too bad without pressure coming at him in TC, he might just keep the job for Day 1. Preseason games are going to be the earliest tell and that's if they don't hold him out again.

[frankw]

12 minutes ago, rayzor said:

How did Darnold do in TC last year? I don't really remember much other than them coddling him and holding him out of preseason games, which they likely won't do with either him or Corral this year. I don't think it was anything special from Darnold other than he's making all the throws and that kind of thing. Nothing really jaw dropping one way or the other, iirc.

 I guess point is, if it's Darnold's job to lose...if he doesn't do too bad without pressure coming at him in TC, he might just keep the job for Day 1. Preseason games are going to be the earliest tell and that's if they don't hold him out again.

Up and down. Much was said about the WR drops I do remember that. And also he threw one of his pick sixes he is known for and most folks were like HEY it's training camp and I was like HEY it's Sam Darnold. The rest is history. All I know for sure is I look forward to seeing Corral sling it.

Edited May 2, 2022 by frankw

[kungfoodude]

6 hours ago, rayzor said:

How did Darnold do in TC last year? I don't really remember much other than them coddling him and holding him out of preseason games, which they likely won't do with either him or Corral this year. I don't think it was anything special from Darnold other than he's making all the throws and that kind of thing. Nothing really jaw dropping one way or the other, iirc.

 I guess point is, if it's Darnold's job to lose...if he doesn't do too bad without pressure coming at him in TC, he might just keep the job for Day 1. Preseason games are going to be the earliest tell and that's if they don't hold him out again.

If they coddle Darnold in the preseason again, it just shows what Matt Rhule is once again.

Darnold wilts when the lights are the brightest, so Corral may not stand out as much until the games are being played. 

Then again, it should have been obvious to the coaching staff during practices and scrimmages that Darnold cannot read defenses at all. That didn't happen, however.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

[CRA]

6 hours ago, rayzor said:

How did Darnold do in TC last year? I don't really remember much other than them coddling him and holding him out of preseason games, which they likely won't do with either him or Corral this year. I don't think it was anything special from Darnold other than he's making all the throws and that kind of thing. Nothing really jaw dropping one way or the other, iirc.

 I guess point is, if it's Darnold's job to lose...if he doesn't do too bad without pressure coming at him in TC, he might just keep the job for Day 1. Preseason games are going to be the earliest tell and that's if they don't hold him out again.

Joe Person did a lot of reporting about how they largely had Sam checking down most of camp and asked Rhule about it.  Then Rhule held Sam out of most of the preseason.  Sam basically checked down for the entire one half of football he was on the field for.  The offense didn't do anything.  But the half ended with a touchdown pass and that was enough for people to ignore all the Sam red flags of that preseason. 

 

 

[Snake]

Most QBS this year should sit. Most will not though. That's how the NFL works out most of the time.