Why the Panthers should take a QB (article)

[Growl]

4 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

It would be highly unlikely that Rhule has zero input in the QB selection process. This is going to be the QB installed in his offense. I detest Rhule, that's no secret, but this isn't about my dislike for him as a coach. His decision making regarding NFL caliber talent is questionable at best. If Tepper and Fitts are going to select a QB and tell Rhule to make him work, then they should have already fired him. This is about the big picture. The big picture is you either have 100% faith in your coach or you don't. With 1 pick in the first 2 days, we have to get this right at one of the 2 biggest positions of need we have. Rhule has already demonstrated with his QB choices and his decision at LT (starting Irving, calling Slater a guard after being announced all pro, and keeping BC on the bench) that he lacks the ability to make that decision. 

what I’m saying is that Rhule has been painted as the “go get a veteran” (like Mayfield) guy from every leak we’ve heard and nugget we’ve gleaned, and if the team drafts a QB, the decision is likely revolving around the scouting axis of Fitterer/McAdoo.

in conjunction with Rhule, yes, but if he hypothetically loses out on the push to acquire a veteran, then logic would follow that the primary evaluation of the prospect selected came from fitterer/mcadoo, who we’ve gathered have been more focused on acquiring a guy via the draft.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Growl

[onmyown]

I think a top 10 pick is more likely next year than otherwise as I also believe a new HC is more likely, finally I think a trade up next year from said position is also more likely to result in a better prospect, and would make more sense imo.

But this is in terms of just taking a qb for the sake of taking one, if others in the FO besides Rhule can confirm that Venice the guy is there, I don’t have a problem taking him at 6.

Building a solid team first allowing you the ability to trade and go after a guy is a fine blueprint. But then again we have morons gutting our draft and ability to do that.

[Growl]

4 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

I'll agree that if a team loves a QB they don't trade DOWN to get him. That said, what if you don't love any of the QBs but understand the value of the rookie contract? 

Kenny Pickett seems like a guy that is "good" on a rookie deal and "bad" when you have to pay him $40M a season; I think Mac Jones is in similar territory. In that scenario I think the team should feel comfortable trading back and taking a QB they like (but not love) while acquiring assets to build out the rest of the team. 

I also agree that it is unrealistic to assume the Panthers will be in position for the top 2 QBs next year. The Texans are setting up to get that #1 pick and the Falcons barring taking a QB this season will be right there with them. Then there are the teams like the Eagles that will set the price at moving up at 3 1st-round picks.

this is a good post and something to consider, but I really don’t think teams draft a QB they don’t believe can be great. I’m not capping Pickett’s ability or whatever, but if that’s what the team believes then they should just take Willis.

[mrcompletely11]

7 minutes ago, Louie said:

The Panthers signed one of the top two Offensive linemen in Corbett and Bozeman. IF the Panthers select, let's say Cross as OT with pick 6, AND Mcaffrey plays most of the season, do you really think the Panthers will be worse? Jaycee Horn will be back also. I would also bet sometime after the first round the Panthers sign Mayfield or Garrapalo. I don't see Rhule rolling out Darnold again. I highly doubt that team wins less than 5 games next year. Plus, multiple teams are already stockpiling 1st rounders next year. We aren't going to be in the position to take one of the top 2 QB's next year.

We've signed top linemen in FA before only to see them flop.  So in that regards I will believe it when I see it.  I do know however our defense lost Reddick and thats going to be tough to replace.  And relying on Cmac is a fools errand at this point.  Kid cannot stay healthy.

 

But overall Rhule could have the Chiefs roster and still trip on his dick on the way to a top 10 pick.  I have seen enough of him to know he is probably the worst game day coach in the NFL and as it stands now we are starting the worst qb in the NFL.   No amount of talent on the oline, no matter who we draft is going to over come those 2 factors.  So yeah I would bet anything we have a top 10 pick next year with good odds on top 5.  Especially if Rhule gets canned after mid season and the team just quits. 

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, onmyown said:

I think a top 10 pick is more likely next year than otherwise as I also believe a new HC is more likely, finally I think a trade up next year from said position is also more likely to result in a better prospect, and would make more sense imo.

But this is in terms of just taking a qb for the sake of taking one, if others in the FO besides Rhule can confirm that Venice the guy is there, I don’t have a problem taking him at 6.

Building a solid team first allowing you the ability to trade and go after a guy is a fine blueprint. But then again we have morons gutting our draft and ability to do that.

This guy gets it.   our pick in the top 10 next year will be enticing for any team trading down.  They can probably get our 2024 first and the top 10 pick and we get a better qb prospect to start over with.  This isnt hard fellas. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

2 minutes ago, Growl said:

what I’m saying is that Rhule has been painted as the “go get a veteran” (like Mayfield) guy from every leak we’ve heard and nugget we’ve gleaned, and if the team drafts a QB, the decision is likely revolving around the scouting axis of Fitterer/McAdoo.

in conjunction with Rhule, yes, but if he hypothetically loses out on the push to acquire a veteran, then logic would follow that the primary evaluation of the prospect selected came from fitterer/mcadoo, who we’ve gathered have been more focused on acquiring a guy via the draft.

I'm not disagreeing with you about Fitt and McAdoo being the primary evaluators. What I'm worried about is that regardless of evaluation, this is Rhule's decision because he's the HC. He thinks he knows more than everyone else and his ego despite back to back 5 win seasons is baffling, hence the Jay-Z comments and his system working 1000% but we just can't see it. Rhule is going to choose his guy if we take a QB at 6, regardless of the evaluations, because he's the coach and this is possibly his only chance to save his job in Carolina. He's desperate (unless he seriously thinks he can't be fired), and the rest of the NFL knows it. I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit calls and makes some noise about taking a QB just to get Rhule to give up 6 and next years first to move up. For now, I trust McAdoo and Fitts. I don't trust Rhule not to completely screw it up because he's knows better than everyone else in the NFL. 

[davos]

My gut tells me Ridder or Howell happens somehow.  I think those two make the most sense and actually have some potential here.  I just don't think we're aiming for Willis and I truly think Pickett is a 2nd rounder.  Call it a gut feeling.  He just doesn't smell right, he's not going to the draft, reports are just very lukewarm about him.  

[Growl]

“Guys a QB needy team is going to give us a great prospect because we’ve been so patient and deserve it!”

other teams aren’t “building the roster” to “prepare for a QB,” they aren’t undervaluing the position the way people here do.

they are getting that guy as they can and spending copious amounts of money and picks to support him while he is cost effective. 

Nobody is giving the panthers a QB next season just because that’s the moment we find it convenient to want one, if the next class is “better,” then every other team in the league knows that and there’s an 99% chance the top picks will be locked into taking those guys regardless of the cost and a 1% chance a team that is amicable to a trade will hold that spot and the panthers will have to compete against 12 other teams-and be selected from amongst them, better hope it’s not a division or conference foe!-by the team for trade.

it is L-O-L worthy that people still operate under this delusion of “well we can just go get our guy when we want him.” 

the league doesn’t work this way, you don’t just get what you want when you decide you want it, something Dave tepper has had to choke down over and over again, and will probably have to do so a few more times.

you have to take chances when the opportunity presents itself. You can’t miss your moment. The panthers did last season.  They probably aren’t going to get many more chances if they keep “preparing the roster.” We’ll see if they learned their lesson.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Growl

[Growl]

5 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

I'm not disagreeing with you about Fitt and McAdoo being the primary evaluators. What I'm worried about is that regardless of evaluation, this is Rhule's decision because he's the HC. He thinks he knows more than everyone else and his ego despite back to back 5 win seasons is baffling, hence the Jay-Z comments and his system working 1000% but we just can't see it. Rhule is going to choose his guy if we take a QB at 6, regardless of the evaluations, because he's the coach and this is possibly his only chance to save his job in Carolina. He's desperate (unless he seriously thinks he can't be fired), and the rest of the NFL knows it. I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit calls and makes some noise about taking a QB just to get Rhule to give up 6 and next years first to move up. For now, I trust McAdoo and Fitts. I don't trust Rhule not to completely screw it up because he's knows better than everyone else in the NFL. 

They aren’t trading up. Clearly I’m not Matt rhules biggest supporter, but I’m not going to let my loathing for him scare me into worrying about such things or scare me off an opportunity to draft a QB just because I’m scared it might save his job.

[rayzor]

2 minutes ago, Growl said:

well let’s swallow the hard to swallow pill:

the panthers won’t be in range to take one of those players next season. To operate as if they will is hope at best and delusion at worst. The teams that will be in range to do so won’t be trading those picks, and certainly won’t be trading them for less than three 1’s plus (should the panthers luck into the third or fourth overall pick team being amicable to a trade because the team has an option at QB, such as Jax)

once you accept this bitter truth, the question becomes…. So what are we going to do?

 

being able to use a single selection on the draft’s top QB prospect is value that cannot be overstated. To bypass that is a horrendous waste of opportunity cost.

the hard pill to swallow is that we'd be better off drafting a stud OT who will anchor the line for a decade or more this year than a JAG QB this year, esp. at #6, who will likely be replaced by a new coach when Rhule eventually gets fired. it's just better value, esp. long term. the desire/desperation for getting a QB is pushing the value above where it should be. 

it's highly unlikely that this year contains within it a franchise QB that we will be building around for the next decade, but it is highly likely that this draft contains within it an LT that will anchor our line for a decade.

[rayzor]

43 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

They absolutely will be in range

franchise QBs can be stumbled upon anywhere in the first round. the idea that the only place you can find them is in the first half dozen picks is a myth and believing it, to use a word that has been used a lot in this thread, is delusional. it's not like you're drafting a more certain thing like LT. 

[Growl]

2 minutes ago, rayzor said:

the hard pill to swallow is that we'd be better off drafting a stud OT who will anchor the line for a decade or more this year than a JAG QB this year, esp. at #6, who will likely be replaced by a new coach when Rhule eventually gets fired. it's just better value, esp. long term. the desire/desperation for getting a QB is pushing the value above where it should be. 

it's highly unlikely that this year contains within it a franchise QB that we will be building around for the next decade, but it is highly likely that this draft contains within it an LT that will anchor our line for a decade.

I don’t care about getting a “stud” to “anchor that o-line!” or whatever other boring cliches you’re spitting at me here.

there is no additional value to having “your guy” at that spot, as opposed to having a revolving door of average veteran LT’s acquired each offseason over the course of a decade. I’m going to win the same number of games. There’s no such thing as a “franchise” left tackle, whatever that is even supposed to mean.

there is such a thing as a franchise QB. There is value in having an individual at that spot in perpetuity, there is value in having a QB on a rookie contract, there is value in having him master your system, there is value in having him become the face of your city, and on and on and on and on.

he isn’t going to be replaced just because there’s a “new coach” and “that’s what happens,” because that isn’t what happens. Good or promising QBs stick around, bad ones don’t. If he’s good, then the panthers will be good, and Matt rhule may stay and you may have to accept that, and if he’s bad, then I’m grateful for multiple opportunities to draft a QB and thanking my lucky stars we didn’t Build That O Line and Prepared The Roster Around The QB and worked my way out of contention for a top QB prospect. It is always better to be awful than average in the NFL. You should be much more afraid that the panthers get stuck in average with a new coach than the idea that Matt rhule might save his job.

[SmokinwithWilly]

7 minutes ago, Growl said:

I don’t care about getting a “stud” to “anchor that o-line!” or whatever other boring cliches you’re spitting at me here.

there is no additional value to having “your guy” at that spot, as opposed to having a revolving door of average veteran LT’s acquired each offseason over the course of a decade. I’m going to win the same number of games. There’s no such thing as a “franchise” left tackle, whatever that is even supposed to mean.

there is such a thing as a franchise QB. There is value in having an individual at that spot in perpetuity, there is value in having a QB on a rookie contract, there is value in having him master your system, there is value in having him become the face of your city, and on and on and on and on.

he isn’t going to be replaced just because there’s a “new coach” and “that’s what happens,” because that isn’t what happens. Good or promising QBs stick around, bad ones don’t. If he’s good, then the panthers will be good, and Matt rhule may stay and you may have to accept that, and if he’s bad, then I’m grateful for multiple opportunities to draft a QB and thanking my lucky stars we didn’t Build That O Line and Prepared The Roster Around The QB and worked my way out of contention for a top QB prospect. It is always better to be awful than average in the NFL. You should be much more afraid that the panthers get stuck in average with a new coach than the idea that Matt rhule might save his job.

There is a such thing as a franchise LT. You just don't hear about them because they aren't throwing for 400 yards and 3 TDs a game. If they're doing their job, you rarely hear their name at all. You have to protect your QB, period. Good LTs rarely become available in their prime for a reason. 

This year is a bit challenging for this team in the draft. With no day 2 picks, there's no chance to get a QB that may slide into round 2. So we can either take a QB, and wait 3 years for him to develop unless he's just horrid like Rosen, or we get a LT that can keep our QB (whoever that may be) on his feet. We had a franchise QB, we didn't protect him and he was physically beaten and battered trying to carry the team because we couldn't block for him and now he's virtually out of the NFL. 

This year's QB crop has flaws, as does every class. Is there one of those QBs that you see as a franchise QB? Is there one of those guys you would be willing to put your job on the line for, because that's the reality for Fitts, Rhule and McAdoo. I don't the that guy this year. I see potential, but I don't see one that's head and shoulders above the rest. I do see some elite level talent at OT and that's where I would lean if I were picking. 

[WOW!!]

I agree with everything @rayzor has posted.. Desperation is moving QBS  up the board this year.. Not their film, college Productions, talent or actual projects to be good.. So why fall in to the trap of wasting a pick on a player that has more hope he becomes, wish he becomes and praying he becomes then actual tangible traits that tell you he will be this or that??