Discussion: The Panther Decision involving Baker

[RevJ]

35 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

It was a rumor that was repeated--not sure I believe it, not sure I don't. 

I think it was tied to his arrest in college.  Police were called to take an assault report and ended up arresting him for drunk and disorderly, resisting arrest, etc.  I think his girfriend was nearby but seems like the beef was him and another guy yelling at each other.  Either way, no charges for assault and he was invited to the combine wihich bans players who have assault, violent conviction, etc.  

Not saying he's an angel, just no reason to pin something on someone they weren't charged with/accused of . . .

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2753441-baker-mayfield-eligible-for-2018-nfl-combine-despite-arrest-in-february-2017

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

4 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

Cleveland will have no choice but to cut Baker at some point. No team will give up assets for Baker when they know he will be cut eventually.

It's possible, but Cleveland at some point is going to realize they are going to have to eat most of his contract.  No team is going to take on his 18m final year deal.  Before they cut him they'll accept a low round pick and swallow the contract than to walk away with nothing. 

[ForJimmy]

23 minutes ago, poundaway said:

Hey we agree on something.

McAdoo liked Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,Sam Darnold , Josh Rosen  and Mason Rudolph ahead of Mayfield in that draft.

So you honestly believe  our GM and HC would ignore our new OC and  trade ANYTHING for Baker who SUCKED with an awesome OL, an excellent RB, and 2 excellent WR's?  Seriously?

 

 

When healthy he took the Browns to their first playoff game in a long time.  Just because he liked them over him in the draft doesn't mean he still does after he sees how they developed.  You have to look at our options. 

1. Roll with Sam again with an improved OL (drafting a LT at 6)

2.  Roll with a rookie in a class that needs developing (is rookie Pickett an upgrade?).  Plus you would lose the 6th pick option of drafting a LT.

3. Pray some team trades down with you in a draft that doesn't have a bonified top 10 talent gap. You lose the 6th pick LT again here.

4. Roll with Baker for cheap and draft your LT at 6.

Baker > Darnold and it's not close really.  Plus our OL should be solid for a while if we draft a LT at 6.  This significantly upgrades our two weakest positions.  If Rhule is looking to win now this is the best option IMO.  It also allows us to easily move on from Baker and draft a QB next year to play behind a solid OL.  It's a good short term/long term play really...

[RevJ]

I think they lose most of the money any way you look at it and don't get much draft consideration.  If they cut him, he can go anywhere, still gets his $18+ million, even if new team pays him minimum salary -  trading allows them some control over where he goes - i doubt they want him at Pittsburgh, Cincy or baltimore, likely want him out of AFC and preferably not on a team they play this year.  

[ForJimmy]

10 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

Cleveland will have no choice but to cut Baker at some point. No team will give up assets for Baker when they know he will be cut eventually.

That's the waiting game we are playing.  He may chose to go be a backup somewhere like Mitch did at Buffalo vs sign with us.  If we can get him for a later round pick AND they eat most his salary (like Denver did to us with Teddy) then that might be the best route to take.  I believe the Teddy/Denver trade happened right before the draft so maybe this is the window to strike...

[grimesgoat]

51 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think it would be cool if we focused on the QB musical chairs game that has left Baker Mayfield standing in silence, and has left the Panthers with an empty chair.

Of course we don't know what is happening behind the scenes, but I thought it was interesting that Fitterer would say, "in on every deal" and that the Panthers will "Keep swinging until they get a QB."  It has simply been too quiet on the Baker Mayfield front and I think there is a potential analytical discussion here that   we must discuss WITHOUT forcing our preferences and external variables into this very simple situation.  Based on what I am hearing on TV while working, the Panthers (NFL Network) are the real focus of the draft.  They are saying that #6 is where the drama begins.  I agree--and it is really more intriguing with Baker Mayfield waiting to sit in our empty QB chair.   For these purposes, let's pretend that they have eliminated all variables and the decision comes down to Mayfield/draft a T or draft a QB at #6.

Correct my logic if you find it faulty: 

Baker Mayfield seems to have 1 potential suitor at the moment:  The Carolina Panthers.  Love him or hate him, that is not what this thread is about--so stay focused, y'all.  The Panthers have a few options, thanks to the situation with Baker.  There is no need to draft a QB desperately at #6 and bypass on that LT.  Here are a few of the Panthers' options:

1. They could wait and see who is left at #6 and draft (or trade back).  As soon as they make the pick, they could call Cleveland and make a deal for Baker if the pick was not a QB , but to me, that is showing your cards and might increase the price Cleveland will take--right now, we know they want to move him desperately, but that advantage changes when they know we don't have a pick until 137 and we passed on the QB pick at #6.  They know we need a QB desperately.

2.  If we take a QB at #6, we could sign Baker for a year to groom the new kid, but Baker is not going to play that--he'd become a distraction.  If we take a QB at #6, Baker is pretty much off the table.  We start Brady Christensen at LT.  Sam probably starts the season and Rhule starts interviewing at various colleges.

3.  If we decide to keep Cleveland on hold during the draft and then trade back to recoup some picks, every time a QB is selected, Baker's asking price increases. 

That is why I think the Panthers are negotiating for Baker, using the start of the draft as leverage.  This takes me to option 4 of 327:

4.  To me, the obvious play here is to decide right now if you are willing to give Baker a season in Carolina.  If you are, you can likely draft the LT you have wanted and you get an NFL starting QB on a one-year rental.  If he plays well, he will want a $40m per contract, and that is phase II of the Baker decision.  This system could favor his playing style.  If he doesn't play well, we draft his replacement in 2023 and start a rookie. 

Personally, I think there will be a trade made just before the draft--a week from now. Here is why:

• Baker's salary for 1 year (once Cleveland eats some of it) would not be much more than the #6 pick overall.
• Baker is better than any QB in the draft right now.  Rhule and maybe Fitterer are playing for NOW.
• Baker's contract gives Scott F. an out.  We can still draft a QB.
• Imagine the OTs are gone at #6.  If we could trade back (an edge will be there) into the first round, add a second, we could still end up with an elite OL and a QB--and we'd still have Baker for a season.

So I think the Panthers are considering Baker Mayfield and how we could get him for a sixth rounder and pay him about $9m.  There is a fear that if he is not traded before the draft, he might have to wait for an injury once the season begins.  Cleveland does not want that distraction. That would allow the Panthers to address OT, in all likelihood, and possibly land a starting QB in the process.  This is a bargain--an opportunity for the Panthers to get value in the draft and the QB they desperately need.

I know all the locker room crap and girl beating stuff--but let's assume they are rumors and the Panthers have done their homework like they did with Watson.

 

You put a lot of thought into this - thanks.

I think Cleveland is highly motivated to get him out of the building at any cost.

They have a backup already in case Watson is suspended (Brissett), so he serves no purpose and will likely be a no-show to camp if he is not traded.

Cutting him will cost 18m dead, so they will be desperate for a trade.  

The only other team that may have an interest is Pittsburgh, who is in their division.  They are sitting on about 15m in cap room and could probably make it work.

The guy is coming off surgery, a bit of a headcase, and his play has been very inconsistent.  I have no idea why we would have any interest there.

Unless Cleveland offered to pay half his salary and gave us their 3rd rounder (#78), I would consider it.  If he plays decent, maybe he becomes a comp pick for us next year.  Otherwise, its a hard pass from me. 

[pantherclaw]

The only way a trade with the Browns make sense, is if they take Sam. 

I'm not a fan of Baker. I think he's another joke that is still in the process of building up before implosion.  

[Riverboat Ron]

With all that money Tepper has can’t he just force the Chiefs to give us Mahommes? 

[SazmoRanger]

The only critique I have is this…. As you stated Baker/Browns only have 1 suitor. They have absolutely 0 leverage. Browns have a choice in either keeping him on the roster, cutting him, or taking the peanuts the Panthers might give them. 
 

Let the draft play out and if the Panthers want Baker, offer up a 6th and Darnold. Browns get SOMETHING and both teams take on stupid QB contracts for a year. 

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Panthera onca said:

Cleveland will have no choice but to cut Baker at some point. No team will give up assets for Baker when they know he will be cut eventually.

Right, but if they cut him, they lose the ability to control his destination and the lose the entire $18.8m.  If they could save half that and send him to the NFC, they should do it.  I am not suggesting giving up major assets--just a sixth rounder or so if necessary.  I think we currently have an offer on the table that expires on draft day---just a hunch because that is what I would do---and I would tell them it could be pulled at any time--no guarantees.  I would offer a sixth rounder next year and split the salary.

[poundaway]

53 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Baker > Darnold and it's not close really. 

Sam:  Cmp% 59.9      Rate:71.9       Int:13      QBR: 33.2
Baker Cmp% 60.5      Rate:83.1       Int:13      QBR 35.1

Baker looked like shlt last year with Chubb, Teller, Bitonio, Beckham (till mid Nov) and Landry. 

What do you think his numbers would have been had he played for us last year?

 

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

That's the waiting game we are playing.  He may chose to go be a backup somewhere like Mitch did at Buffalo vs sign with us.  If we can get him for a later round pick AND they eat most his salary (like Denver did to us with Teddy) then that might be the best route to take.  I believe the Teddy/Denver trade happened right before the draft so maybe this is the window to strike...

Makes no sense to if you're trying to convince teams you might take a QB at #6.

They might make a trade on Draft weekend, but before doesn't work imo.

[OldhamA]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Right, but if they cut him, they lose the ability to control his destination and the lose the entire $18.8m.  If they could save half that and send him to the NFC, they should do it.  I am not suggesting giving up major assets--just a sixth rounder or so if necessary.  I think we currently have an offer on the table that expires on draft day---just a hunch because that is what I would do---and I would tell them it could be pulled at any time--no guarantees.  I would offer a sixth rounder next year and split the salary.

They didn't think enough of him to not throw their morals (and all their money / Draft picks) out of the window for Watson.

Who cares if he goes on to start for the Steelers? They've basically said "Baker sucks".

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

They didn't think enough of him to not throw their morals (and all their money / Draft picks) out of the window for Watson.

Who cares if he goes on to start for the Steelers? They've basically said "Baker sucks".

Yeah, but if they can get a team to take on part of the salary--they don't cut him a $19m check to leave town.  If I am not mistaken, they were going with him as the starter were it not for Watson, so their may be something there.

Edited April 19, 2022 by MHS831