Discussion: The Panther Decision involving Baker

[MHS831]

I think it would be cool if we focused on the QB musical chairs game that has left Baker Mayfield standing in silence, and has left the Panthers with an empty chair.

Of course we don't know what is happening behind the scenes, but I thought it was interesting that Fitterer would say, "in on every deal" and that the Panthers will "Keep swinging until they get a QB."  It has simply been too quiet on the Baker Mayfield front and I think there is a potential analytical discussion here that   we must discuss WITHOUT forcing our preferences and external variables into this very simple situation.  Based on what I am hearing on TV while working, the Panthers (NFL Network) are the real focus of the draft.  They are saying that #6 is where the drama begins.  I agree--and it is really more intriguing with Baker Mayfield waiting to sit in our empty QB chair.   For these purposes, let's pretend that they have eliminated all variables and the decision comes down to Mayfield/draft a T or draft a QB at #6.

Correct my logic if you find it faulty: 

Baker Mayfield seems to have 1 potential suitor at the moment:  The Carolina Panthers.  Love him or hate him, that is not what this thread is about--so stay focused, y'all.  The Panthers have a few options, thanks to the situation with Baker.  There is no need to draft a QB desperately at #6 and bypass on that LT.  Here are a few of the Panthers' options:

1. They could wait and see who is left at #6 and draft (or trade back).  As soon as they make the pick, they could call Cleveland and make a deal for Baker if the pick was not a QB , but to me, that is showing your cards and might increase the price Cleveland will take--right now, we know they want to move him desperately, but that advantage changes when they know we don't have a pick until 137 and we passed on the QB pick at #6.  They know we need a QB desperately.

2.  If we take a QB at #6, we could sign Baker for a year to groom the new kid, but Baker is not going to play that--he'd become a distraction.  If we take a QB at #6, Baker is pretty much off the table.  We start Brady Christensen at LT.  Sam probably starts the season and Rhule starts interviewing at various colleges.

3.  If we decide to keep Cleveland on hold during the draft and then trade back to recoup some picks, every time a QB is selected, Baker's asking price increases. 

That is why I think the Panthers are negotiating for Baker, using the start of the draft as leverage.  This takes me to option 4 of 327:

4.  To me, the obvious play here is to decide right now if you are willing to give Baker a season in Carolina.  If you are, you can likely draft the LT you have wanted and you get an NFL starting QB on a one-year rental.  If he plays well, he will want a $40m per contract, and that is phase II of the Baker decision.  This system could favor his playing style.  If he doesn't play well, we draft his replacement in 2023 and start a rookie. 

Personally, I think there will be a trade made just before the draft--a week from now. Here is why:

• Baker's salary for 1 year (once Cleveland eats some of it) would not be much more than the #6 pick overall.
• Baker is better than any QB in the draft right now.  Rhule and maybe Fitterer are playing for NOW.
• Baker's contract gives Scott F. an out.  We can still draft a QB.
• Imagine the OTs are gone at #6.  If we could trade back (an edge will be there) into the first round, add a second, we could still end up with an elite OL and a QB--and we'd still have Baker for a season.

So I think the Panthers are considering Baker Mayfield and how we could get him for a sixth rounder and pay him about $9m.  There is a fear that if he is not traded before the draft, he might have to wait for an injury once the season begins.  Cleveland does not want that distraction. That would allow the Panthers to address OT, in all likelihood, and possibly land a starting QB in the process.  This is a bargain--an opportunity for the Panthers to get value in the draft and the QB they desperately need.

I know all the locker room crap and girl beating stuff--but let's assume they are rumors and the Panthers have done their homework like they did with Watson.

 

[EgoDogg]

I agree with everything you said. Shutting out all the speculation for a minute, it's the most logical of any of the scenarios I think, and the best low-risk, potentially high-reward scenario out there. I think it's just a matter of time until this happens.

What's the deal with the girl beating stuff, though? This is the second time I saw that referenced somewhere, but I can't really find any info on it.

[poundaway]

I'd rather have the empty chair.

[TheBiggerCat]

I'm not a fan of Baker as a QB. But considering the current  show the panthers have become I guess your option 4 may be as good as it gets.

[Lurk21]

That was a very accurate  assumption  to me!!  Once you strip put rather you want Baker or not, it's obvious  they are adding Analytics  into the decision.  We traded for Sam close to draft and got rid of Teddy around the same time. If a guy like Neal(who lately mocks have sliding) is there at 6 and we trade for Baker(or whoever) that becomes a situation  that has some upside.  Neal would solidify  the line somewhat and if Baker flames out, you cut ties.  I personally  don't have a clear thought on wanting him or not but I see the logic of not just drafting a Qb at 6.  Trading back if Neal and there is my option. Neal Brown(reuniting  from Bama) Bozeman  Corbett  and Moton would be a selling point for a new Coach n Quarterback if the Rhule/Baker scenario flops. 

[MHS831]

4 minutes ago, EgoDogg said:

I agree with everything you said. Shutting out all the speculation for a minute, it's the most logical of any of the scenarios I think, and the best low-risk, potentially high-reward scenario out there. I think it's just a matter of time until this happens.

What's the deal with the girl beating stuff, though? This is the second time I saw that referenced somewhere, but I can't really find any info on it.

It was a rumor that was repeated--not sure I believe it, not sure I don't. 

[MHS831]

4 minutes ago, poundaway said:

I'd rather have the empty chair.

But this was about what the GM might do.   To me, its a matter of time before the Panther fan base starts hating the QB drafted at #6 (for 4 years) and doing so without a legit LT. 

Baker is a tool, but he played some decent ball before being hurt.  He had a good OL in Cleveland, so if we add the LT....

[ForJimmy]

If we can get him for something like next year’s 3rd/4th and this year’s 6th and they eat at least half his salary I’d be ok. Grab Neal/Icky/Cross at 6 and a project like Glass late in the draft. Our QB depth can be Baker, Sam, Glass (or Glass can go to practice squad), and our OL will be as solid (on paper) as it’s been in a while. If it blows up Baker is a FA next year and we have a nice crop of QBs in the draft to look at with most of our picks still available. Meanwhile Glass can be developing into a backup with some potential for the next year. 

[MechaZain]

I've said it a bunch but if they get a LT with 6 I don't really care what they do at QB. 

Personally I'm not sure Baker is much of an upgrade over Sam or Cam. We just know what he can look like with solid pass protection and haven't seen that with the other two.

[poundaway]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Baker is a tool

Hey we agree on something.

McAdoo liked Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,Sam Darnold , Josh Rosen  and Mason Rudolph ahead of Mayfield in that draft.

So you honestly believe  our GM and HC would ignore our new OC and  trade ANYTHING for Baker who SUCKED with an awesome OL, an excellent RB, and 2 excellent WR's?  Seriously?

 

 

[EgoDogg]

6 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

and a project like Glass late in the draft. Our QB depth can be Baker, Sam, Glass (or Glass can go to practice squad)

It would have to be Glass on the practice squad in this case. Rhule would never give up former Temple QB, Mr. Unbeatable's spot (P.J. Walker)

[DaveThePanther2008]

40 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think it would be cool if we focused on the QB musical chairs game that has left Baker Mayfield standing in silence, and has left the Panthers with an empty chair.

Of course we don't know what is happening behind the scenes, but I thought it was interesting that Fitterer would say, "in on every deal" and that the Panthers will "Keep swinging until they get a QB."  It has simply been too quiet on the Baker Mayfield front and I think there is a potential analytical discussion here that   we must discuss WITHOUT forcing our preferences and external variables into this very simple situation.  Based on what I am hearing on TV while working, the Panthers (NFL Network) are the real focus of the draft.  They are saying that #6 is where the drama begins.  I agree--and it is really more intriguing with Baker Mayfield waiting to sit in our empty QB chair.   For these purposes, let's pretend that they have eliminated all variables and the decision comes down to Mayfield/draft a T or draft a QB at #6.

Correct my logic if you find it faulty: 

Baker Mayfield seems to have 1 potential suitor at the moment:  The Carolina Panthers.  Love him or hate him, that is not what this thread is about--so stay focused, y'all.  The Panthers have a few options, thanks to the situation with Baker.  There is no need to draft a QB desperately at #6 and bypass on that LT.  Here are a few of the Panthers' options:

1. They could wait and see who is left at #6 and draft (or trade back).  As soon as they make the pick, they could call Cleveland and make a deal for Baker if the pick was not a QB , but to me, that is showing your cards and might increase the price Cleveland will take--right now, we know they want to move him desperately, but that advantage changes when they know we don't have a pick until 137 and we passed on the QB pick at #6.  They know we need a QB desperately.

2.  If we take a QB at #6, we could sign Baker for a year to groom the new kid, but Baker is not going to play that--he'd become a distraction.  If we take a QB at #6, Baker is pretty much off the table.  We start Brady Christensen at LT.  Sam probably starts the season and Rhule starts interviewing at various colleges.

3.  If we decide to keep Cleveland on hold during the draft and then trade back to recoup some picks, every time a QB is selected, Baker's asking price increases. 

That is why I think the Panthers are negotiating for Baker, using the start of the draft as leverage.  This takes me to option 4 of 327:

4.  To me, the obvious play here is to decide right now if you are willing to give Baker a season in Carolina.  If you are, you can likely draft the LT you have wanted and you get an NFL starting QB on a one-year rental.  If he plays well, he will want a $40m per contract, and that is phase II of the Baker decision.  This system could favor his playing style.  If he doesn't play well, we draft his replacement in 2023 and start a rookie. 

Personally, I think there will be a trade made just before the draft--a week from now. Here is why:

• Baker's salary for 1 year (once Cleveland eats some of it) would not be much more than the #6 pick overall.
• Baker is better than any QB in the draft right now.  Rhule and maybe Fitterer are playing for NOW.
• Baker's contract gives Scott F. an out.  We can still draft a QB.
• Imagine the OTs are gone at #6.  If we could trade back (an edge will be there) into the first round, add a second, we could still end up with an elite OL and a QB--and we'd still have Baker for a season.

So I think the Panthers are considering Baker Mayfield and how we could get him for a sixth rounder and pay him about $9m.  There is a fear that if he is not traded before the draft, he might have to wait for an injury once the season begins.  Cleveland does not want that distraction. That would allow the Panthers to address OT, in all likelihood, and possibly land a starting QB in the process.  This is a bargain--an opportunity for the Panthers to get value in the draft and the QB they desperately need.

I know all the locker room crap and girl beating stuff--but let's assume they are rumors and the Panthers have done their homework like they did with Watson.

 

Great logic and wouldn't be surprised to see any of these.  

However, if we are going to take Baker and Cleveland eats most of his contract I'd like to see this scenario.

Some mock drafts I have seen Sauce drop to us at #6.  NYJ really want him (listen to Rich Eisen who is a big Jets fan) and will never make it to 10. I say we drop down to 10 and pick up either their 2nd round or our old 2nd round pick.  We take the best OT available at 10 and get Corral or Howell in the 2nd round.  This way we have a young QB who can hold the clipboard for a season and learn the system just in case Baker wants a bank load or bombs out.  

 

[Carl Spackler]

17 minutes ago, poundaway said:

So you honestly believe  our GM and HC would ignore our new OC and  trade ANYTHING for Baker who SUCKED with an awesome OL, an excellent RB, and 2 excellent WR's?  Seriously?

Absolutely. Consider the dumbest decision, then watch them make it.

[Panthera onca]

Cleveland will have no choice but to cut Baker at some point. No team will give up assets for Baker when they know he will be cut eventually.