Quarterback Desperation: The trade and QB market in this year's draft

[Mr. Scot]

From Peter King (link)

QB Desperation

Truest words of the week, from draft maven Greg Cosell of NFL Films: “You can make the argument that every year there are two drafts: the quarterback draft, and the draft for the rest of the players. This year’s no different. It would not surprise me if we saw five quarterbacks go in the first round.”

One GM told me he sees three in the top 20, though there appear to be no sure things among the passers set to be taken. Those three are likely Kenny Pickett of Pitt, Malik Willis of Liberty and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. I’ve heard very good things about Ridder’s exchanges with teams over the past month, but each QB has his critics. Has Pickett hit his ceiling already? Can Willis develop the pocket presence teams want to see? Ridder has run NFL style concepts at Cincinnati, but he misses throws he should make and isn’t strong throwing on the run.

One of the issues is when a team picks a quarterback in the first round, there are expectations he’ll play as a rookie. Play some, at least. What if, say, a Willis would be best served with a redshirt year? Will his team feel fan, media and owner pressure to play him before his time? That’s an inescapable issue when a guy drafted to be the future at the most important position in the game comes onto the scene. Sometimes, pressure foils the best-laid plans.

Chris Simms, the QB maven for NBC Sports, likes Ole Miss’ Matt Corral as his QB1, for his quick release, strong arm and quick feet. But Simms predicts only two in the first round: Pickett and Willis. He thinks Detroit should take Corral late in the first or early second (the Lions have the 32nd and 34th overall picks, last in the first round and second in the second round). “Corral really excites me,” Simms said. “He’s got the quickest release I’ve seen in a while.”

[mrcompletely11]

I’ve been told repeatedly that Willis will play this year.   Hmmmmm…….

Edited April 11, 2022 by mrcompletely11

[TheCasillas]

I’m a huge fan of MC’s release as well. I’ve always considered a fast release a trait of a successful qb in this league. 
 

It’s really tough this year to judge the QB class, but with the way the game is changing … it’s not hard to believe that one of these qbs will be successful at the nfl level, but which one…..

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

I’m a huge fan of MC’s release as well. I’ve always considered a fast release a trait of a successful qb in this league. 
 

It’s really tough this year to judge the QB class, but with the way the game is changing … it’s not hard to believe that one of these qbs will be successful at the nfl level, but which one…..

Corral with CMC would be fun to watch. He played well against top competition as well. It’s such a hard position to judge.

[TheCasillas]

Just now, ForJimmy said:

Corral with CMC would be fun to watch. He played well against top competition as well. It’s such a hard position to judge.

Yeah, MC is growing on me and fast. I was really on the Willis train, but I’m concerned he is just going to be another Justin Fields. 
 

for those who aren’t aware, bears are already considering moving on from fields bc of his release being low and slow. 

[Mr. Scot]

There's also this from Albert Breer about how everyone thinks the Saints are looking to trade up into the top ten or even top five, but that might not be true.

A lot of people are waiting for a second-order move by the Saints, after last week’s trade with the Eagles. Maybe it’ll happen. But I just don’t see the logic in it, at least at this point. For those who missed the ins and outs, a week ago, New Orleans sent first-, third- and seventh-round picks (18, 101, 237), its 2023 first-rounder and 2024 second-rounder to Philly for the 16th and 19th picks, plus a sixth-rounder (194) this year. In the MAQB, we broke down how if you split the whole thing into two trades, it looks pretty ugly for the Saints. And that sort of logic had some deducing that this might be part of a plan from Saints GM Mickey Loomis to make a bigger move into the top 10.

Maybe it is. My question then would be … why did the Saints need the Eagles to play middleman? The draft value chart shows that the Saints could spin the 16th and 19th picks to get up into the top four. But this year, with perception (and maybe reality) that the top 10 lacks real blue-chippers, more teams up there are looking to move picks to next year—so my guess is if the real plan here was to get into the upper reaches of the draft, then packaging the 18th pick with next year’s first-rounder alone might’ve gotten it done (and you’d have saved yourself moving this year’s third-rounder and the 2024 second-rounder). Again, maybe Loomis will do what some think he will and spin the capital he just got to move up. But it seems to me it’s more likely that the Saints did this to get to three picks inside the top 50 (16, 19, 49), allowing them to lean on Jeff Ireland and his staff to find three starters to come in on rookie contracts and help alleviate the team’s cap strain now and in the future, and bolster a team that’s still got a roster that’s very much in a win-now type of place. (And for what it’s worth, Loomis, entering his 21st season as Saints GM, hasn’t shown much inclination, publicly or privately, to rip the Band-Aid off cap-wise and undergo a post–Drew Brees and Sean Payton rebuild).

[Mr. Scot]

And one more piece of draft related info...

Someone did an analysis of which teams have the most draft capital (point wise) and posted a list from top to bottom.

We're not as low on the list as you might think.

I'm not a big stats and points guy, but I still found this interesting.

[ForJimmy]

21 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Yeah, MC is growing on me and fast. I was really on the Willis train, but I’m concerned he is just going to be another Justin Fields. 
 

for those who aren’t aware, bears are already considering moving on from fields bc of his release being low and slow. 

Where did you see that about the Bears? I feel like that’s pretty coachable/correctable…

[BlueBuck24]

45 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Where did you see that about the Bears? I feel like that’s pretty coachable/correctable…

The Bears are 100% not considering moving on from Fields.

[ForJimmy]

1 minute ago, BlueBuck24 said:

The Bears are 100% not considering moving on from Fields.

Everything I read says they are trying to give him more weapons AKA building around him.

[glenwo2]

1 hour ago, TheCasillas said:

I’m a huge fan of MC’s release as well. I’ve always considered a fast release a trait of a successful qb in this league. 
 

It’s really tough this year to judge the QB class, but with the way the game is changing … it’s not hard to believe that one of these qbs will be successful at the nfl level, but which one…..

The problem is they won't be successful...with the Panthers as they are now.   

We need an Offensive Tackle.

BADLY.

Edited April 11, 2022 by glenwo2

[TheCasillas]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

Where did you see that about the Bears? I feel like that’s pretty coachable/correctable…

 

32 minutes ago, BlueBuck24 said:

The Bears are 100% not considering moving on from Fields.

The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain believes the Bears "might have to consider the possibility that [Justin Fields] isn’t the guy" if he struggles in 2022. 

The team's new regime should have a good idea of Fields' long-term potential after the 2022 season, Fishbain said. "Fields’ rookie performance comes with a lot of disclaimers, and some are legitimate, but the struggles can’t be fully ignored," Fishbain said. "If the sack numbers remain high, if he’s not doing a good job taking care of the football, and if he’s not leading scoring drives often enough, then the organization might have to consider the possibility that he isn’t the guy." Fields in 2021 struggled mightily in Matt Nagy's inflexible, uncreative offense, ranking 37th in adjusted completion rate -- just ahead of Mike Glennon -- and 22nd in yards per attempt. Fields' expected points added (EPA) per drop back was lower than any quarterback besides Zach Wilson. His best-case scenario would be a Bears offense that better utilizes his strengths. A bad 2022 could have the Bears itching for a new QB option.

https://theathletic.com/3207809/2022/03/25/justin-fields-2022-expectations-robert-quinns-trade-value-free-agent-wide-receivers-bears-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

[BlueBuck24]

2 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

 

The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain believes the Bears "might have to consider the possibility that [Justin Fields] isn’t the guy" if he struggles in 2022. 

The team's new regime should have a good idea of Fields' long-term potential after the 2022 season, Fishbain said. "Fields’ rookie performance comes with a lot of disclaimers, and some are legitimate, but the struggles can’t be fully ignored," Fishbain said. "If the sack numbers remain high, if he’s not doing a good job taking care of the football, and if he’s not leading scoring drives often enough, then the organization might have to consider the possibility that he isn’t the guy." Fields in 2021 struggled mightily in Matt Nagy's inflexible, uncreative offense, ranking 37th in adjusted completion rate -- just ahead of Mike Glennon -- and 22nd in yards per attempt. Fields' expected points added (EPA) per drop back was lower than any quarterback besides Zach Wilson. His best-case scenario would be a Bears offense that better utilizes his strengths. A bad 2022 could have the Bears itching for a new QB option.

https://theathletic.com/3207809/2022/03/25/justin-fields-2022-expectations-robert-quinns-trade-value-free-agent-wide-receivers-bears-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

The quoted tweet we responded to was about the Bears *already* considering moving on from Fields. Your article says that they would have to consider that he may not be “the guy” if he struggles in 2022. Which, would make sense. But is not what we were responding to.

 

FWIW, my OSU sources have said the Bears are very excited about the flashes they saw from Fields this past year. They think a better coaching staff will help big time, and they are prepared to be patient. They’re in a bit of cap and asset hell right now so they may not be able to properly build around him until 2023, and things could change in a year, but they really like him in Chicago.

[mrcompletely11]

38 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

 

The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain believes the Bears "might have to consider the possibility that [Justin Fields] isn’t the guy" if he struggles in 2022. 

The team's new regime should have a good idea of Fields' long-term potential after the 2022 season, Fishbain said. "Fields’ rookie performance comes with a lot of disclaimers, and some are legitimate, but the struggles can’t be fully ignored," Fishbain said. "If the sack numbers remain high, if he’s not doing a good job taking care of the football, and if he’s not leading scoring drives often enough, then the organization might have to consider the possibility that he isn’t the guy." Fields in 2021 struggled mightily in Matt Nagy's inflexible, uncreative offense, ranking 37th in adjusted completion rate -- just ahead of Mike Glennon -- and 22nd in yards per attempt. Fields' expected points added (EPA) per drop back was lower than any quarterback besides Zach Wilson. His best-case scenario would be a Bears offense that better utilizes his strengths. A bad 2022 could have the Bears itching for a new QB option.

https://theathletic.com/3207809/2022/03/25/justin-fields-2022-expectations-robert-quinns-trade-value-free-agent-wide-receivers-bears-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

Did you miss the 2022 part?