Which LT in the draft will bust?

[Waldo]

IDK, I am absolutely not allowing myself to fall in love with one this year after we passed on Slater and refused to give time to BC at LT when the other trash options were dumpster fires. So I just avoid looking at all cost until we draft one. 

 

[unicar15]

15 hours ago, AU-panther said:

There seems to be this idea that there are 3 surefire franchise LTs in this year's draft.  As a fan, who would love to see his team have a franchise LT, I hope this is the case, but history tells us that it probably isn't.

Here is a list of every T drafted in the top 10 for the past 10 years from:

2021 NFL Draft Listing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

2012:  Matt Kahil

2013:  Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson

2014:  Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews

2015:  Ereck Flowers, Brandon Scheerf

2016:  Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin

2017:  

2018:  Mike McGlinchey

2019:

2020: Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills JR

2021:  Penei Sewell

As you can see several of them haven't turned out that great, and several have ended moving to other positions.

Of Neal, Cross and Ekwonu, who do you think is the most likely not to work out at LT?

Who knows…

 

It is interesting that the two guys on that list who are future HOF have arms 1-1/2in longer than any prospect in this draft. 

[tecc86]

Im not sure any of these 3 will be busts but I see Neal playing RT rather than LT

[Khyber53]

The person picked on draft night has only a bit to do with their own success as a LT, in my opinion. The skills they developed, physical abilities they possess, their football IQ and competitive spirt are then tied in with someone else's offensive philosophy, the quality of the other linemen they work with, play designs, quality and awareness of the QB and even which division they will play in. 

A great candidate is going to look like a bust if his QB is a nervous nelly like Jimmy Claussen, or if his matching guard plays like a worn out sock, or if the offensive coordinator uses concepts from a 1982 JuCo playbook. What if the team's trainers aren't up to snuff and a minor injury becomes a re-occuring, nagging problem. Or just the whims of fate and physical contact end up Jeff Otah'ing a guy out of the league.

I just couldn't hazard a guess as to which of the big target LTs in the draft would make it work here. I can look at them statistically, or based on conformation or based on past game play and say I think Ickey Ekwonu would be the guy I'd put my money on, but knowing how these things go, I wouldn't put a lot of money on him, or anyone, being the unicorn guy we're hoping for.

Too many other factors at the moment. And I don't believe in our coaching. Still, the next HC might be able to correct any issues. Who knows?

 

[AU-panther]

On 4/7/2022 at 6:34 PM, kungfoodude said:

I think that is the thing about saying "bust." Do we mean Greg Little bust or a guy who busts at the position? Guys like Neal, Ekwonu or Penning might be Pro Bowl caliber players at RT or OG. Is that a true bust or maybe just a guy that wasn't great positional value?

I should have specified better, at #6 we are looking for a franchise LT.  If they end up having to move to another position I think its a bit of a missed pick.

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

Reading these takes It sounds like most of these LT have issues that will need to be addressed in camp if we decide to choose one.

BC played well in the end of the season and IMO should be given the nod going into camp.  Why choose another player if he isn't a surefire LT.  

My take is trade down with the Jets considering they want Sauce and could use #6 to the LT they want.  We get 10 and their first 2nd round pick 35.  We still can choose a OL and QB from 10 and 35.   

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

I should have specified better, at #6 we are looking for a franchise LT.  If they end up having to move to another position I think its a bit of a missed pick.

 

Yeah and I do understand that. Especially when you pick at 6. If the guy ends up being a long term Pro Bowl guard, you could have technically gotten that much later.

Not great positional value at all.

[mickeye76]

16 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah and I do understand that. Especially when you pick at 6. If the guy ends up being a long term Pro Bowl guard, you could have technically gotten that much later.

Not great positional value at all.

Positional value is overrated but very real like the Lakers.  Being in the top ten adds this stigma. If we were picking between 11 and say 16 all bets are off.  At that point guards, tight ends and safeties magically become valid picks. 

If we take a QB (pickett or willis) in part because of inflated value based on position and draft slot it's a gamble.  Journeyman and backup qb's are available much later in the draft.  That could result in wasted positional value.  

Give me a serviceable to good offensive lineman that misses at left but excels at another position  as a worst case over a serviceable QB that can only contribute at qb.  

Edited April 10, 2022 by mickeye76

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, mickeye76 said:

Positional value is overrated but very real like the Lakers.  Being in the top ten adds this stigma. If we were picking between 11 and say 16 all bets are off.  At that point guards, tight ends and safeties magically become valid picks. 

If we take a QB (pickett or willis) in part because of inflated value based on position and draft slot it's a gamble.  Journeyman and backup qb's are available much later in the draft.  That could result in wasted positional value.  

Give me a serviceable to good offensive lineman that misses at left but excels at another position  as a worst case over a serviceable QB that can only contribute at qb.  

Well it might be overrated but when a lot of excellent IOL are taken in the second or third round, it does make the value of using a high first round draft pick less. But, you also might get a Quentin Nelson type, as well.

Additionally, you are locking a player in at a relatively high price for an IOL even as a rookie(which is one of the big arguments against taking RB's in the top 5). Deservedly or not, former first round draft picks also tend to command higher prices in their subsequent contracts.

Although you may end up with an All Pro caliber IOL from Neal/Ekwonu/Penning not panning out at LT, it would definitely be a missed pick. Even if they are successful players.

[therealmjl]

The one we draft

[Sasquatch]

We've made 206 selections in the drafts in our history. The number selected for each position is as follows (forgive a miscount);

C - 6

DB - 43

DE - 19

DT - 20

G - 12

K - 1

LB - 24

P - 1

QB - 9

RB - 20

T - 16

TE - 11

WR - 24

Only 3 total OL selections were in the first round (Terry, Gross, & Otah). 

 

Just sayin'

[mickeye76]

5 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Well it might be overrated but when a lot of excellent IOL are taken in the second or third round, it does make the value of using a high first round draft pick less. But, you also might get a Quentin Nelson type, as well.

Additionally, you are locking a player in at a relatively high price for an IOL even as a rookie(which is one of the big arguments against taking RB's in the top 5). Deservedly or not, former first round draft picks also tend to command higher prices in their subsequent contracts.

Although you may end up with an All Pro caliber IOL from Neal/Ekwonu/Penning not panning out at LT, it would definitely be a missed pick. Even if they are successful players.

I'm with ya. My personal preference is that we trade out of the top 10 and gain a second or more to add more lottery balls into the fray. I'm just not a fan of the reactionary overdraft at QB based on "positional value" and need based picks. I actually would like to trade with KC or DET for they later picks.   The bottom of the first would be prime spots for oline flyers like Bernard Raimann or Tyler Smith for our new coach to mold.  Or guys that had stellar combines that increased their stock.  It takes the entire convo we having out of the equation.  A trade with KC that results in ex. Sam Howell and Tyler Smith or a trade with DET that results in Bernard and a top defensive player that slipped.  

 

[Prowler2k18]

On 4/7/2022 at 7:04 PM, kungfoodude said:

I kind of think he could kick inside to guard and play really well though.

I think Penning’s got the raw tools to be a good LT. He’s going to have to clean up the penalties but with proper development and experience, he’ll be okay. 

Edited April 10, 2022 by Prowler2k18

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, mickeye76 said:

I'm with ya. My personal preference is that we trade out of the top 10 and gain a second or more to add more lottery balls into the fray. I'm just not a fan of the reactionary overdraft at QB based on "positional value" and need based picks. I actually would like to trade with KC or DET for they later picks.   The bottom of the first would be prime spots for oline flyers like Bernard Raimann or Tyler Smith for our new coach to mold.  Or guys that had stellar combines that increased their stock.  It takes the entire convo we having out of the equation.  A trade with KC that results in ex. Sam Howell and Tyler Smith or a trade with DET that results in Bernard and a top defensive player that slipped.  

 

I just don't want to see us trade out if a top DE or LT is available. That will be a problem. Also don't want to see us take a QB in the first round.

16 minutes ago, Prowler2k18 said:

I think Penning’s got the raw tools to be a good LT. He’s going to have to clean up the penalties but with proper development and experience, he’ll be okay. 

I think he could play RT or OG, as well.