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big Saints / Eagles trade

Captain Morgan

By Captain Morgan,
in Carolina Panthers

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Basbear said:

I think theres a decent chance thats hes still staring at his phones until day 3, agains his draft spot is the hardest for me to pinpoint. I do think Pitt will past on him with their 1st, but if hes still there form their 2nd......

 

 

I'll bet you anything you want to bet that Howell is drafted prior to day three of the draft.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

Seriously--at this time, I do not see this QB class as weak.  So, I will put myself in the center of another expert analysis--something I like to call:  Anal-MHS-ysis. 

The top 5 QBs in 2020 (a great class) vs. the top 5 QBs in the 2021 class)

2020

Lawrence:  Had a great supporting cast in Clemson and was very good.  Had a weak supporting cast in Jax and was not very good. 

Wilson:  The teams he played against in college were not very good, but his team was pretty good.  The team he played on in NY was not very good.  He was not very good.

Lance:  His college team was good vs. lesser competition and he was very good.  His pro team was very good.  Lance played and was not very good, but good enough to win the job.

Fields:  His college team was very good and he was very good.  All QBs that come from very good Ohio State are not very good in the pros.  In Chicago, Fields was not very good.

Jones: His college team was very good and his OL was very good.  In New England, his coach was very good and protected him.  He was pretty good.

So it seems to me that the college team has everything to do with our estimation of the QBs---all five of the 2020 QBs played on very good teams that dominated the competition most all of the time.  However, when these QBs went to bad NFL teams, they were not very good as rookies.  Lance and Jones went to the best situations and they are poised to be the best QBs entering 2021 because they will be in the best situations.  The Jags, the Jets, and the Bears have work to do before their QBs are feared.

Willis: This year, the seemingly top-rated QB played at Liberty.  I compare him to Lance because they both played at FCS Div I AA schools and were very good on very good, lower level teams. Lance had to sit a year in SF, and Willis is likely to sit a year wherever he goes.  Both offer nice upside. 

Corral: Wilson was good at BYU, but sucked in NY.  I see Corral being his equal, maybe to a lesser degree, but Corral is likely to end up on a better NFL team.  Miss was good with Corral, and he was the reason for it.  I think Corral has a chance to be better as a pro than the #2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Pickett:  I think the closest comparison to Pickett is Jones, in terms of passing only.  Jones can't run, Pickett can, but the hand size (fumbling) could be the equalizer.  Both make good decisions with the football, and both have limited upsides.  On the right team, Pickett can be better than Jones in my opinion because he is a better athlete.

Howell is probably best compared with Fields.  Fields is the better athlete, but Howell rushed for 1000 yards as a rookie.  Fields went to Ohio State, where the system often produces NFL draft busts at a stunning rate, where UNC's much smaller sample size of NFL QBs is not any better.  The reason I put Howell and Fields on the same page?  They can both scamper, throw a clean ball, and they both have cool temperaments.  Grace under pressure is an underappreciated characteristic.  I give Fields the advantage here, but he did not exactly instill confidence in Chicago that they have found their QB--and considering that Ohio State let burrow slip away for lesser pro QBs tells me that the NFL skill set might not be a good fit in Columbus.  Howell is smart, has shown he can adjust his game as needed (running).  He simply needs an OL and receivers.  So these 2 are closer to even than one might think.

Ridder's size and leadership skills are similar to Trevor's, but this is where the two groups differ.  Ridder has upside, but it is not fair comparing him to the #1 overall pick in 2021.  So the difference between the two classes:

Willis = Lance

Corral > Wilson

Howell < Fields

Pickett > Jones

Ridder < Lawrence

 

 

So these groups of QBs are not as different as we think.  The 2020 QBs played on awesome teams with awesome supporting casts, but Howell, Pickett, Willis, Ridder, and Corral were on teams a notch below 2020s Clemson, Alabama, ND State, and Ohio State.   They were more akin to BYU. 

  • Put Lawrence on the Bearcats in 2021, do they do better?
  • Put Howell under center at Ohio State in 2021.  Does he struggle like he did at UNC?
  • Put Pickett in as Alabama's signal caller--they still win the National Championship.
  • Could Willis have led Lance's ND State team?  I think so.
  • Could Corral have beaten Coastal Carolina as the BYU QB?  Probably.


Thanks for reading

 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
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7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think that too. But you'd still be dunking on me that Howell sucks if he was playing decently for a bad team. I mean hell, most of the Huddle already thinks that about him because UNC sucked while he was basically playing like MVP Cam for them. 

I actually don't hate him as a prospect, I started to sour on him when I did a little more thorough watching in late 2020 and in 2021. The throwing mechanics issues are enough that I am not sure if he is gonna be able to correct them all. 

To me, he is a lot like a poor man's Baker Mayfield. Gunslinger, above average scrambler, and just generally a scrappy gamer as a player.

But, he doesn't have nearly the arm Baker did and he has quite a bit more throwing motion kinks to work out than Baker did.

Does he have the talent to be a successful NFL QB? For sure. Will be achieve them? I don't believe he will. 

I don't think he will be nearly the bust Malik Willis is about to be. Everything about that kid screams bust, even with an otherworldly skillset.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I actually don't hate him as a prospect, I started to sour on him when I did a little more thorough watching in late 2020 and in 2021. The throwing mechanics issues are enough that I am not sure if he is gonna be able to correct them all. 

To me, he is a lot like a poor man's Baker Mayfield. Gunslinger, above average scrambler, and just generally a scrappy gamer as a player.

But, he doesn't have nearly the arm Baker did and he has quite a bit more throwing motion kinks to work out than Baker did.

Does he have the talent to be a successful NFL QB? For sure. Will be achieve them? I don't believe he will. 

I don't think he will be nearly the bust Malik Willis is about to be. Everything about that kid screams bust, even with an otherworldly skillset.

I'm just not convinced Willis's skill set is all that otherworldly. He has a really good arm, but is he Josh Allen? Nah. He's fast, but I honestly think he's just standard "fast for an NFL QB" fast, not a Vick or Lamar type.

To me, he plays like a smaller Cam Newton. How does Cam's career turn out if he was 5" shorter and 40 pounds lighter? I'm a huge Cam fan, but...

As for Howell, yeah I think Baker is a decent physical comp. Baker's problem is between his ears.

 

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45catfan Grand Master

45catfan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Running QBs are all the rage now.  Dude's actual QB stats...you know the ones that matter most are mediocre at best.  But sure, let's be wowed how he ran circles against mostly lower level opponents...yeah, yeah, with a good opponent sprinkled in here and there.

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frankw Grand Master

frankw

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Posted
3 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Running QBs are all the rage now.  Dude's actual QB stats...you know the ones that matter most are mediocre at best.  But sure, let's be wowed how he ran circles against most lower level opponents...yeah, yeah, with a good opponent sprinkled in here and there.

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