The Athletic's Ted Nguyen scouts Kenny Pickett

[micnificent28]

6 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Why do you consider him a system QB? Looks like they run a pro style offense at Pitt…

Basically this..

[panthers55]

He seems to be a Teddy Bridgewater with better athletic ability and a better arm.  Truth is Teddy has all those traits he would still be here.

[micnificent28]

6 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Ehh, I've seen Pickett going in the top ten to other teams (like Atlanta) and to the Saints if he falls. Pickett is being scouted pretty heavily by other QB hungry teams, but his comparatively low ceiling I think means he's unlikely to go in the very top of the first unless we make the move.  But I've consistently been wrong about QBs, so perhaps I'll be wrong here.  

He's significantly better than a third rounder. Honestly. The thing with him is that his elite traits are accuracy and anticipation (hence the comments about not having anything that isn't coachable), and he's just good to great in every other category.  So he's a good prospect, but not the kind of guy that, even if he pans out, you expect to become one of the top 3 QBs in the NFL. I think folks believe Willis, however, has that kind of ceiling.  OTOH, Pickett is likely to be, at worst, a very good backup.  Willis has a lower floor than that. Who wants to spend #6 on a potential backup?  Well, the Panthers. Haha.

Oh I agree. Not trying to say he's a 3rd rounder.  Just on his skillset. The things I can put a value on..he doesn't have the biggest arm. He doesn't have elite athleticism.. he does have elite accuracy except* on down field throws.. like he has his ceiling lowered because of those things. I can't see myself drafting a limited prospect top ten. Top ten you have to shoot for a guy who can defeat mahomes.

If your running a patriots like offense he's your guy no doubt. That system works for guys like him and Mac Jones. A west coast like offense. He's a older guy and dang near a finished product. Not much room to grow and if he already almost as good as he is going to be and that still isn't enough to be the unanimous number 1 qb... why do I want you?

 

[ForJimmy]

3 minutes ago, micnificent28 said:

Basically this..

I’m still confused? Is this specifically for Pickett? His arm is capable of making big time throws he just can’t rip it like Allen/Mahomes. Brady’s arm isn’t top in the league and he seems to be doing fine. The QB with the most “big time” throws was actually Howell believe it or not.

[rayzor]

I don't know..... Guy's 50/50 whether you can build a successful team around him or not. 

He's got traits that make you confident that he'll be ok and then things that just make you go 

I still like him better than Darnold or really any of the FA options that are out there, but I don't like him more than Corral or Willis.

[CRA]

35 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

52 games (not starts - he didn't start every game his first year), 32 ints in 1674 passing attempts. ~1.9% interception rate would put him in good company in the NFL (for comparison, Darnold is at 3.2% on his career). In terms of fumbles, its impossible he had 26 fumbles lost unless the stats available online are wrong (possible, I suppose). Numbers available show 26 total fumbles, 10 lost.

Okay.  52 games.  58 turnovers.   Not sure that changes things. 

I just took the numbers presented here and added them to his picks.  But I’ll try to find to some on my own to see if it is legit.  A quick google of the issue shows a billion articles repeating the stat BUT none of those are reputable sources.  And fumble stats get hard to find sometimes in college.  So it could be folks repeating a bad stat that isn’t easy to find. 

[mav1234]

3 minutes ago, micnificent28 said:

Oh I agree. Not trying to say he's a 3rd rounder.  Just on his skillset. The things I can put a value on..he doesn't have the biggest arm. He doesn't have elite athleticism.. he does have elite accuracy except* on down field throws.. like he has his ceiling lowered because of those things. I can't see myself drafting a limited prospect top ten. Top ten you have to shoot for a guy who can defeat mahomes.

If your running a patriots like offense he's your guy no doubt. That system works for guys like him and Mac Jones. A west coast like offense. He's a older guy and dang near a finished product. Not much room to grow and if he already almost as good as he is going to be and that still isn't enough to be the unanimous number 1 qb... why do I want you?

 

I think Pickett's ceiling is significantly higher than Jones' because of athleticism. I also think his arm strength is better but that's hard to evaluate (the relative difference in skill of the people they were throwing to and playing against makes it really hard for me to judge what I've seen of either of them LOL)

Anyway these are their RAS profiles.. 

Kenny Pickett:

[mav1234]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

Okay.  52 games.  58 turnovers.   Not sure that changes things. 

I just took the numbers presented here and added them to his picks.  But I’ll try to find to some on my own to see if it is legit. 

Honestly its possible that the other fumble numbers are right but something doesn't add up. Because of the discrepancy I'd done some digging and had trouble finding anything definitive.  Season by season breakdown, under Fox Sports' college football stats (for rushing) shows 26 total, which matches up to me with the 26 we see talked about elsewhere.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/kenny-pickett-player-stats?category=rushing&seasonType=reg

https://www.si.com/college/pittsburgh/news/pitt-kenny-pickett-hand-size-nfl-combine#:~:text=Pickett's hand size remains one,correlating to the smaller size.

The 3 lines up with what the Fox Sports thing has...

[micnificent28]

5 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I’m still confused? Is this specifically for Pickett? His arm is capable of making big time throws he just can’t rip it like Allen/Mahomes. Brady’s arm isn’t top in the league and he seems to be doing fine. The QB with the most “big time” throws was actually Howell believe it or not.

It's not specifically for Pickett. But I think it sounds a lot like him to me. Yes Brady is doing amazing but he is the needle in the haystack.. he's  the goat.. he's the I don't know what you do well but it works guy. Brady has elite processing I have always believed. Few guys him and Payton manning have that.

Do we think Pickett has that? Chances are he doesn't. If I could trade down... and get Pickett I'm all for it. Pickett at say 25 sounds awesome. It's the top 10 for me.. top 10 just bring good at most things isn't enough. Top 10 I need something you are immediately a threat with. Your arm, legs, processing, accuracy whatever. I think Pickett is the safe middle grounds of all those things. Does he defeat Mahomes for you with that tho?

[panthers55]

Whether he is a system QB or not is only relevant if he is in the wrong system. He tends to fit what we have done for the past 2 years and with McAdoo likely having a lot of say on who we pick, we should get a guy who either fits in our system or is adaptable. Pickett is the most pro ready and has the best mechanics. He would be our Mac Jones and that got NE a winning record last year. That would be great and if he can't take us to the promised land Fitterer already said we would swing again next year. Then we get a starter and backup on rookie deals.

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Honestly its possible that the other fumble numbers are right but something doesn't add up. Because of the discrepancy I'd done some digging and had trouble finding anything definitive.  Season by season breakdown, under Fox Sports' college football stats (for rushing) shows 26 total, which matches up to me with the 26 we see talked about elsewhere.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/kenny-pickett-player-stats?category=rushing&seasonType=reg

https://www.si.com/college/pittsburgh/news/pitt-kenny-pickett-hand-size-nfl-combine#:~:text=Pickett's hand size remains one,correlating to the smaller size.

The 3 lines up with what the Fox Sports thing has...

I remember going back and looking at Sam’s college fumbles because he had some mind boggling stuff.   It was easy to find legit sports folks talking about it but it was really hard to find a website that had it all correct.  

[mav1234]

Just now, CRA said:

I remember going back and looking at Sam’s college fumbles because he had some mind boggling stuff.   It was easy to find legit sports folks talking about it but it was really hard to find a website that had it all correct.  

yeah it isn't easy to track down college stats beyond TD/INTs, tbh.

sokay. I suck at QB evaluation and am fine admitting that, lol.

[CRA]

4 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

yeah it isn't easy to track down college stats beyond TD/INTs, tbh.

sokay. I suck at QB evaluation and am fine admitting that, lol.

I’m probably more worried about them mortgaging future picks than drafting Pickett.   I don’t like Pickett but whatever. He ain’t saving Rhule’s job.  

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

I’m probably more worried about them mortgaging future picks than drafting Pickett.   I don’t like Pickett but whatever. He ain’t saving Rhule’s job.  

That is a bigger concern of mine, too. I'm petrified we're going to wake up to a big Jimmy G trade... I'd rather have a rookie, ANY rookie...

McAdoo may be able to work with whatever rookie we draft, frankly, but I don't think it'll matter overall to saving Rhule.  This team is not a QB away from competing, regardless.