The Athletic's Ted Nguyen scouts Kenny Pickett

[Mr. Scot]

Kenny Pickett is by far the most accurate QB in this class, but he has an unnerving red flag (not his hand size)

The article includes a series of clips and analysis. I recommend taking a look if you can (subscription required). It's a pretty extensive and informative reac.

Excerpts:

(E)nough about hand size. Let’s talk about Pickett’s game. I graded him a lot higher than I thought I would after reviewing his film. Pickett has elite accuracy throwing short and intermediate, his passes zip to his receivers with strong velocity, and he’s twitchy enough to escape from pass rushers and make difficult passes on the run. He doesn’t have elite arm talent but can still throw accurately off-platform.

Pickett was a super senior, who broke out in his fifth year. Like many others, he was eligible for an extra season because of last year’s COVID-19 restrictions. He didn’t throw for more than 13 touchdowns in each of his first four seasons but went nuclear last season, throwing for 42 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. He didn’t have blue-chip talent at offensive line or receiver, but he carved up defenses with anticipation and precise ball location, working the dropback game from the pocket. But he’s not just a pocket passer, he’s hard to bring down and is accurate and decisive when he breaks the pocket.

Pickett’s mechanics are very strong. He won’t need much if any adjusting in the NFL. He’s an excellent rotational thrower with a quick release.

...

In this clip that was sent to me (I edited it) by his trainer, Tony Racioppi, Pickett is working on turning at the top of his drop to make a straight balanced throw to his left using the last crossover step to set the angle for his body to align with the throw. The sequencing of his mechanics is perfect and exactly what even veteran quarterbacks continue trying to master.

What I mean by sequencing is how his hips open first while his shoulders remain closed to the target. This creates a rubber band effect that naturally whips the shoulders into the throw, so he’s getting power from his hips rather than compensating with just his arm. Watch as his front foot hits the ground, his front shoulder remains perpendicular to the target. This type of sequencing is very hard to achieve, but Pickett has perfected it and it shows up on his game film. His strong mechanics and footwork are why he’s by far the most accurate quarterback in this class.

...

Pickett loves using the middle of the field. He has a natural feel for anticipating windows opening up and puts the ball in great locations for his receivers and doesn’t put them in danger.

...

Pickett has a twitchy lower body, shows excellent agility in the pocket and can run through arm-tackle attempts. He’s difficult to contain and can hit tight-window throws on the run.

...

Conversely, one of Pickett’s greatest weaknesses is his skittishness in constrained pockets. Although he’s slippery, there are times when he’ll bail out of clean pockets when it’s not necessary. Great quarterbacks know how to make subtle movements to buy more time in the pocket. Pickett wants to escape when the pocket starts to get muddy.

When he has a clean pocket, Pickett does a nice job of moving from progression to progression.

...

Pickett shows some inconsistency with his process. There are times when he doesn’t let deeper routes develop long enough and will move too quickly to his checkdown. Generally, he’s good against the blitz, but there are several instances when he won’t see it coming and takes bad sacks or gets forced into bad decisions.

Although Pickett can be surgical throwing short to intermediate, he’s not as precise when he’s throwing deep. His reads on deep passes aren’t as clean and his placement overall is average to below average.

...

Pickett benefited from playing in a system that was expertly tailored to his strengths by offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Whipple called a lot of concepts that attacked the middle of the field like “shallow cross” and rolled Pickett outside of the pocket when he expected pressure. Pickett’s ability to anticipate and his accuracy will translate to the next level, but you want to see more consistency with his process as a super senior. Fumbles are a concern as well — he had 38 career fumbles (lost 26), which is why his hand size might actually matter. Though he did wear gloves, he did not appear to lose grip on passes.

Teams could easily fall in love with his accuracy and escapability, but his skittishness when the pocket gets compressed is a legitimate red flag because pockets are smaller in the pros. Overall, I believe Pickett can be very good, but he’s not scheme-versatile. He has to be in a system that emphasizes quick passes in the middle of the field with West Coast roots like the 49ers, Saints or Steelers.

...

Note: We're also one of those teams.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Mr. Scot

[ForJimmy]

I really don’t understand the Pickett hate. It’s like Mac Jones all over again… He is a solid prospect IMO. 

[Louie]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

I really don’t understand the Pickett hate. It’s like Mac Jones all over again… He is a solid prospect IMO. 

I'm going out on a limb here. I will own it if he fails. I think Pickett is going to be the best QB in this draft class, not just this season, but for years to come. I hope we draft him, tbh.

[La Pantera]

4 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I really don’t understand the Pickett hate. It’s like Mac Jones all over again… He is a solid prospect IMO. 

They're not flashy prospects.

 

[Admiral Ackbar]

So much of the success of a young QB is situation and luck. "Evaluators" are like Weathermen, they make educated guesses about a outcome that may or may not be true.

I do commend the front office this offseason, they have built a offense that does put a talented rookie (which Pickett is) in a position to excel. It'll just be on him or whoever we draft, if we draft a QB at all.

Time will tell

[TheSpecialJuan]

18 minutes ago, jackson113 said:

Dollar store Andy Dalton???

He does remind me of him 

[CRA]

52 starts -  58 turnovers 

bad in the pocket 

Can checkdown very well to first reads 

hmmm….sounds oddly familiar. 

[mav1234]

The fumble numbers are wrong, and have no context (that is, his numbers are no different from other QBs with larger hands, lol). Most numbers I've seen show 26 total fumbles and 10 lost (5 in his first full year as a starter, only 2 last year).  Some have said the 26 total is from rushing, 38 is total.  If this is true, it is *impossible* he lost 26 fumbles, hahaha. In this interpretation of those numbers, he lost only 10 rushing and this would mean he somehow lost 16 fumbles while passing despite only fumbling 12 times from the pocket/while passing.

[mav1234]

22 minutes ago, CRA said:

52 starts -  58 turnovers 

bad in the pocket 

Can checkdown very well to first reads 

hmmm….sounds oddly familiar. 

52 games (not starts - he didn't start every game his first year), 32 ints in 1674 passing attempts. ~1.9% interception rate would put him in good company in the NFL (for comparison, Darnold is at 3.2% on his career). In terms of fumbles, its impossible he had 26 fumbles lost unless the stats available online are wrong (possible, I suppose). Numbers available show 26 total fumbles, 10 lost.

Edited April 1, 2022 by mav1234

[MechaZain]

Pickett wants to escape when the pocket starts to get muddy.

When he has a clean pocket, Pickett does a nice job of moving from progression to progression.

 

 

It’s a no from me on this alone. Sounds like the dude could work out for the right team but we’re a terrible fit.

[mav1234]

2 minutes ago, MechaZain said:

 

Pickett wants to escape when the pocket starts to get muddy.

When he has a clean pocket, Pickett does a nice job of moving from progression to progression.

 

 

It’s a no from me on this alone. Sounds like the dude could work out for the right team but we’re a terrible fit.

I just don't think his (Pickett's) ceiling is high enough to take him where we are likely to be drafting a QB. That's why I prefer Willis overall ... although man, his accuracy in actual games is not good. Even in the Senior Bowl, in the actual game, he just didn't connect with anyone... compared to some other prospects that had quite decent or good games.

[micnificent28]

He's a system quarterback. If I'm taking you top 10 you have to be able to fit into any system. You have to have elite traits... what makes you a first rounder? If not.. why can't I get you in the 3rd round?  His arm is meh and we seem to have a team full of wrs who need the deep ball to be a thing. He really isn't a good fit for us. People just like mocking him to us cause rhule and temple.

If he is so great,how come he isn't being mocked to anyone but us? I have seen Willis at 2.. I have seen Willis at 6.. seen him to the falcons and Pittsburg. Nobody but us seems to want Pickett.

[ForJimmy]

4 minutes ago, micnificent28 said:

He's a system quarterback. If I'm taking you top 10 you have to be able to fit into any system. You have to have elite traits... what makes you a first rounder? If not.. why can't I get you in the 3rd round?  His arm is meh and we seem to have a team full of wrs who need the deep ball to be a thing. He really isn't a good fit for us. People just like mocking him to us cause rhule and temple.

If he is so great,how come he isn't being mocked to anyone but us? I have seen Willis at 2.. I have seen Willis at 6.. seen him to the falcons and Pittsburg. Nobody but us seems to want Pickett.

Why do you consider him a system QB? Looks like they run a pro style offense at Pitt…

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, micnificent28 said:

He's a system quarterback. If I'm taking you top 10 you have to be able to fit into any system. You have to have elite traits... what makes you a first rounder? If not.. why can't I get you in the 3rd round?  His arm is meh and we seem to have a team full of wrs who need the deep ball to be a thing. He really isn't a good fit for us. People just like mocking him to us cause rhule and temple.

If he is so great,how come he isn't being mocked to anyone but us? I have seen Willis at 2.. I have seen Willis at 6.. seen him to the falcons and Pittsburg. Nobody but us seems to want Pickett.

Ehh, I've seen Pickett going in the top ten to other teams (like Atlanta) and to the Saints if he falls. Pickett is being scouted pretty heavily by other QB hungry teams, but his comparatively low ceiling I think means he's unlikely to go in the very top of the first unless we make the move.  But I've consistently been wrong about QBs, so perhaps I'll be wrong here.  

He's significantly better than a third rounder. Honestly. The thing with him is that his elite traits are accuracy and anticipation (hence the comments about not having anything that isn't coachable), and he's just good to great in every other category.  So he's a good prospect, but not the kind of guy that, even if he pans out, you expect to become one of the top 3 QBs in the NFL. I think folks believe Willis, however, has that kind of ceiling.  OTOH, Pickett is likely to be, at worst, a very good backup.  Willis has a lower floor than that. Who wants to spend #6 on a potential backup?  Well, the Panthers. Haha.