QB prospect accuracy

[AU-panther]

5 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

So some guy working at PFF is determining what’s catchable and what’s uncatchable and making up his own stats. Lol

 

I swear there are like a million of these football analytics websites that contradict each other.

as long as he applies his definition uniformly across all of the QBs it really doesn't matter if comes up with the definition, it still gives you an idea on how they compare relative to each other.

If you have took the time to chart all of their throws over 10 yards or have a better source for their downfield accuracy please share.....

 

 

[GoobyPls]

38 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

as long as he applies his definition uniformly across all of the QBs it really doesn't matter if comes up with the definition, it still gives you an idea on how they compare relative to each other.

If you have took the time to chart all of their throws over 10 yards or have a better source for their downfield accuracy please share.....

 

 

So as long as he applies “his” definition it doesn’t matter if the ball was even catchable lol.

 

Simms said he watched the film and Corral was more accurate but okay. Their own website contradicts themselves

 

 

[kungfoodude]

51 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

historically yes

Josh Allen has been a bit of an exception, also If I remember some of Herberts accuracy metrics were not the best coming out.  The NFL tends to be a bit of copy cat league, I really think Josh Allen's success helped someone like Trey Lance get drafted as high as we did.   All of a sudden it is in vogue to take the toolsy guy and hope he can improve his accuracy.  That same thought process will probably get Willis drafted a lot higher than he would have in the past.

 

Herbert was fairly accurate, he did have one subpar year. Lance was hard to quantify because he only played one season. Had he played another year with similar results(almost 67% completion percentage), I think those concerns would have been less. 

I think Willis will predominately take advantage of this just being a weak class overall more than anything. If you are gonna miss, why not miss on a guy with his kind of skillset?

[AU-panther]

26 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Herbert was fairly accurate, he did have one subpar year. Lance was hard to quantify because he only played one season. Had he played another year with similar results(almost 67% completion percentage), I think those concerns would have been less. 

I think Willis will predominately take advantage of this just being a weak class overall more than anything. If you are gonna miss, why not miss on a guy with his kind of skillset?

don't confuse completion percentage with accuracy, 

What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2020 Quarterback Draft Class? | Sharp Football (sharpfootballanalysis.com)

2021 NFL Draft All-Upside Team: Trey Lance starts at QB, Levi Onwuzurike and Joseph Ossai star on defense | NFL Draft | PFF

 

 

[AU-panther]

35 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

So as long as he applies “his” definition it doesn’t matter if the ball was even catchable lol.

 

Simms said he watched the film and Corral was more accurate but okay. Their own website contradicts themselves

 

 

they aren't contradicting anything, different data points (years and yards)

look at a route tree and the yards at which most of those routes are run and you will see that each set of stats is representing a different subset of passes.

Over 20 yards will have a higher percentage of go routes then over 10 yards as the parameters, under that logic it's really no surprise to see Howell towards the top.

and btw did Simms chart the accuracy or was it just off the cuff opinion?

actually, he admits he doesn't know what the accuracy numbers are

Chris Simms’ 2022 NFL Draft QB Rankings: Why Matt Corral stands out from the pack - NBC Sports

It's always amusing when fans get so upset over stats that don't line up with their preconceived notions and agenda.  It's just one little piece of the puzzle.  Maybe Picket really has the least number of really uncatchable passes over 10 yards.  That doesn't necessarily mean he is overall the most accurate passer.  

What if they look at the % of passes that hit the receiver in stride?  Thats an entirely different stat, maybe Corral is more accurate in that regard.  

 

 

 

 

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

don't confuse completion percentage with accuracy, 

What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2020 Quarterback Draft Class? | Sharp Football (sharpfootballanalysis.com)

2021 NFL Draft All-Upside Team: Trey Lance starts at QB, Levi Onwuzurike and Joseph Ossai star on defense | NFL Draft | PFF

 

Well that first article is really cringe worthy considering how terribly it aged.

That definitely doesn't even stand up to the limited amount of time it has been since it was written.

The second snippet also doesn't look that great when you loom at their rookie seasons.

I understand what you are probably trying to say, and I don't necessarily completely disagree but those articles are pretty bad.

[kungfoodude]

6 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

they aren't contradicting anything, different data points (years and yards)

look at a route tree and the yards at which most of those routes are run and you will see that each set of stats is representing a different subset of passes.

Over 20 yards will have a higher percentage of go routes then over 10 yards as the parameters, under that logic it's really no surprise to see Howell towards the top.

and btw did Simms chart the accuracy or was it just off the cuff opinion?

actually, he admits he doesn't know what the accuracy numbers are

Chris Simms’ 2022 NFL Draft QB Rankings: Why Matt Corral stands out from the pack - NBC Sports

It's always amusing when fans get so upset over stats that don't line up with their preconceived notions and agenda.  It's just one little piece of the puzzle.  Maybe Picket really has the least number of really uncatchable passes over 10 yards.  That doesn't necessarily mean he is overall the most accurate passer.  

What if they look at the % of passes that hit the receiver in stride?  Thats an entirely different stat, maybe Corral is more accurate in that regard.  

TBH, Simms is a far better judge of accuracy than PFF. I like PFF just fine but they aren't going to understand or easily be able to deduce things like ball placement, timing, throwing mechanics, etc.

Simms can much more easily deduce who is going to be an accurate thrower just because he has an extremely well trained eye. He's done it for decades. He's from a family that has done it.

Not to say PFF doesn't have value but when it comes to prospect evaluation, Simms is WAAAAAAY more qualified to make an evaluation than just taking a PFF stat. 

That really shouldn't be a controversial opinion for that matter. PFF is good at some things but prospect evaluation they are pretty awful at. You can't solely break down college prospects purely statistically. It doesn't work.

[SCMunnerlyn1]

6 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Lol this seems greatly skewed.  If he was around 40% no way would be be mentioned as a first rounder... get this out of here.

Can't remember his accuracy but Ryan Mallet comes to mind. Projected 1st round Drafted strictly for the cannon of an arm. 

[unicar15]

Hard to be accurate if you’re getting strip sacked. He had a fumble every other game of his career. 52 games. 26 fumbles. 

[Smithers]

8 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Now let's have a look at Pickett's other seasons. You know, when he was barely even mediocre.

Um the OP literally uses stats since 2019.  And Pickett was still very good in this category.  

[Brooklyn 3.0]

But guys, he can't throw it 100 yds and run circles around NFL defenses! Say no to Kenny!

[OldhamA]

6 hours ago, rippadonn said:

My boy Carson Strong did THAT and 4186yds 36tds 70%completion on one leg. 

All the hype goes to the other lesser QBs though.

It's all good.

Unless he's going to grow a new leg before April it's still relevant. 

[1ch1ban]

5 hours ago, GoobyPls said:

So as long as he applies “his” definition it doesn’t matter if the ball was even catchable lol.

 

Simms said he watched the film and Corral was more accurate but okay. Their own website contradicts themselves

 

 

if i am reading this chart correctly, sam howell is the best of the bunch?

[ForJimmy]

6 hours ago, Wundrbread33 said:

Hot damn this sounds like something right up Teddy Two Yard’s alley. 

That his throws are catchable at 10 and 15+ yards? I think it’s more if the opposite.