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Cap nerds unite!

Actionman0z

By Actionman0z,
in Carolina Panthers

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ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, AU-panther said:

How long of a career do most top 3 LTs have? 10-15 years?

During that time how many LT prospects are drafted in the top 10?

As you can see the math doesn't add up, they can't all become top 3.

The fact is the chance of any LT drafted becoming top 3 at their position is the exception, not the rule.

Fans have a bad habit of convincing themselves that every top-10 pick is a future hall of fame player.

I think he was saying top 3 (in the draft). Many are seeing a big 3 in this draft Neal, Icky, and Cross. They seem like pretty safe prospects that should be solid NFL LTs (not necessarily too 3 in the league). Drafting one is the safest plan for the long term, but the people making the decisions aren’t concerned about long term as much as they are saving their jobs next year. 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Snake said:

I see it. Just ain't buying it. The Trent Dilfer days are over. We need a QB that can use one of the best WR duos in the game. KC can win a lot of games with a 3rd backup LT but not without Mahomes. 

Like I said, I can't make you see it if you don't already.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, AU-panther said:

How long of a career do most top 3 LTs have? 10-15 years?

During that time how many LT prospects are drafted in the top 10?

As you can see the math doesn't add up, they can't all become top 3.

The fact is the chance of any LT drafted becoming top 3 at their position is the exception, not the rule.

Fans have a bad habit of convincing themselves that every top-10 pick is a future hall of fame player.

How did passing on Slater work out again?

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

How did passing on Slater work out again?

I didn't say anythign about passing on anyone, but this idea that a top 10 pick guarantees you top-3 type of talent at any position is just wrong.

Speaking of slater, is he top 3, everyone probably thought Sewell would be, that is 2 of your top 3.  That means only one of the three top tackles in this class can be.  See, the math doesn't really work does it?

Casual fans always have unrealistically high expectations of draft picks. 

I'm not saying any of these tackles will or won't be, I actually really like this tackle class, but statistically speaking the chance of a top 10 tackle becoming top-3 talent is more unlikely then it is likely.

 

 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, AU-panther said:

I didn't say anythign about passing on anyone, but this idea that a top 10 pick guarantees you top-3 type of talent at any position is just wrong.

Speaking of slater, is he top 3, everyone probably thought Sewell would be, that is 2 of your top 3.  That means only one of the three top tackles in this class can be.  See, the math doesn't really work does it?

Casual fans always have unrealistically high expectations of draft picks. 

I'm not saying any of these tackles will or won't be, I actually really like this tackle class, but statistically speaking the chance of a top 10 tackle becoming top-3 talent is more unlikely then it is likely.

 

 

 

Do whatever mental gymnastics it takes to make you comfortable.

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poundaway Grand Master

poundaway

Posted
Posted
On 3/21/2022 at 11:10 AM, AU-panther said:

I didn't say anythign about passing on anyone, but this idea that a top 10 pick guarantees you top-3 type of talent at any position is just wrong.

Speaking of slater, is he top 3, everyone probably thought Sewell would be, that is 2 of your top 3.  That means only one of the three top tackles in this class can be.  See, the math doesn't really work does it?

Casual fans always have unrealistically high expectations of draft picks. 

I'm not saying any of these tackles will or won't be, I actually really like this tackle class, but statistically speaking the chance of a top 10 tackle becoming top-3 talent is more unlikely then it is likely.

 

 

 

You're right.  Besides, neither the Chargers nor Detroit made the playoffs.  A top 10 LT does not cure all ills.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, WarPanthers89 said:

Lol Saints at number 6 overall with “crippling cap issues” just a few weeks ago 

They extended some older players to prepare for Watson--now they are stuck with them--soon, their dead cap will be as bad as ours was last year.

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    • LinvilleGorge
      Trading Down Could be a Gold Mine in This Draft!!

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    • Hoenheim
      Trading Down Could be a Gold Mine in This Draft!!

      By Hoenheim · Posted

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    • Hoenheim
      Trading Down Could be a Gold Mine in This Draft!!

      By Hoenheim · Posted

      I don't mean to make this a mock draft thread particularly,  but every time I do a mock I have been investigating the talent that goes off the board between picks 8 and our low 2nd rounder pick 57. There is a gargantuan amount of talent still left on the board in the top half of the 2nd round every time I do one. Losing our original 2nd round pick to the Bears as the last pick of the Bryce trade stings badly .  I'm particularly looking at elite players like Carson Schwesinger (LB), Luther Burden (WR), Matthew Golden (WR), Maxwell Hairston (CB) , Nick Scourton , Landon Jackson, Donavan Ezeraku (all DEs/OLBs) . The sweet spot in this draft really feels like pick 15 to 40 - ish. This is why the Bears should be making bank with this draft. I don't know how realistic a trade down is from 8, but if we could pick up any teams higher 2nd rounder and still grab their 1st? We'd be cooking with gas man.  Say for example we get Tet McMillan at pick 8, if you wait all the way to 57 you stand the chance of not getting any impact pass rushers in this draft. And I don't think this team can afford that.  I'd personally love for them to take a break from drafting wrs in R1 or R2 (i think we've taken one in the top 2 rounds in the majority of the past few years), and stick to repairing the nfls worse defense in history (in terms of total points against iirc, or was it yards? Also included my most recent mock as an example . Don't put too much into the  late round selections lol  
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