DE Brown bears weight of Panthers draft gamble

[Gman was right]

You make it sound like the draft is an easy thing to predict! Face facts, to build a strong roster you have to use the odds in your favor. Pick the guys with the high potential and great work ethics and you will find the quality players.

Even if they have a ceiling, you know that the money you are investing in the player will at worst case turn out to be a fantastic role player and terrific locker room guy. These are the kind of players that stay in the league for 10 years and develop into the Rucker's and Minter's, the grizzled vet who can pass down their work ethics and knowledge to the players who are not so disciplined.

Best case scenario you have a very high quality player if their potential becomes reality.

Look at the teams who constantly go for the somewhat troubled but incredible potential players. They follow that idea throughout the draft in the idea that at least one or two will pan out. For every one who turns into the best in his position, you also get 4 or 5 who are out the league in 3 years.

That results in multiple free agency pick ups, a restriction on the cap because of that and ultimately one or two quality players but no depth of drive behind the team. I think the Pats are great at drafting like this. They take the occassional boom or bust player, but the inevitably pick the guys who work hard and play hard. The problem players are ushered out the door before you know it and because of that emphasis on working hard, they can even bring in a couple of player like Moss and get a completely different work ethic out of them. It's the vets they have in place, who take no nonsense, that forces all players to follow the mould. How many flashy picks do the Pats make?

And what, you put stock in players with a tendency for causing teams trouble? High motor almost also comes with a high determination and high competitiveness. If you think that results in a nice player on the field then you clearly have NEVER played competitive sports.

I am talking about picking the players who have potential, but you know will at the least work their ass off each and every day. So in the worst case scenario you have a roster of players who bring it every day and every play. These are the teams who are always competing.

Both of you looked at the small things in what I said and you both seemed to have missed the point. Brown has a good deal of potential as well and could well turn out to be a star, but at the moment we have a guy who is giving to work his ass off to make the most of the talent he has. Compare that to another second round pick in Jarrett, which do you think has a chance of being on the roster beyond their rookie contracts?

We have a history of picking the high motor/character guys. That is what Beason was, you think he is a 'nice' guy on the field? How about Gross, Otah? Stewart? All of them bring it and they never take plays off. If you had a choice of that collection, or the sort that Oakland piece together, which would you choose? How about Cincinatti before they changed their approach this year? Detroit and their plethora of wide receivers who are no longer in the league?

I know its easy to figure out that you dont trade away 1st round picks for 2nd round talent. I would rather have a guy on the roster thats lazy and produces than a guy who gives it his all and still sucks. Its about production. Not effort! I dont care how much effort or how nice of a guy he is. If he isnt producing then he is a bust! PERIOD!

[Urrymonster]

I put stock in players that produce and fit the system coming out of college...I like brown and think he will be good.But brown has no choice but to have a high motor at his size...but the way you explained you rather have a roster full of E.brown over J.peppers?

I think having a roster of E. Brown's gives you the luxury to go after the occassional J. Pepper. That way the work ethic and personality of the team will force those who are not so inclined to wok hard at their trade harder. What you will avoid are seasons which bottom out before December.

[Urrymonster]

I know its easy to figure out that you dont trade away 1st round picks for 2nd round talent. I would rather have a guy on the roster thats lazy and produces than a guy who gives it his all and still sucks. Its about production. Not effort! I dont care how much effort or how nice of a guy he is. If he isnt producing then he is a bust! PERIOD!

No point in discussing this with you as you are labeling a rookie DE a bust. Anyone with even a shread of knowledge on football will know you have to give them a year at least. Ever thought they were planning on bringing him as Peppers replacement after this season?

So you think a player like Tyler Brayton has no value to the team? He is an effort guy. Some were saying he was outperforming Peppers at the end of last year...

[rayzor]

i had brown going in the top 10 last year. i though he was a steal. i still do.

[Cyberjag]

crolls is right here. Brown is the type of player who flourishes in a system like Meeks runs and has a good chance to be an impact player in the league. So far playing in 9 games he is second among rookie DEs with 13 tackles. He has 2 FFs and one sack. The most any rookie DE has is 2. Anyone who follows the success of linemen in the NFL in their rookie year knows that few if any of them come in and make an impact right away. Folks who think he is wasted pick needed to remember that one of our problems with guys with Hayes and Brown is that we didn't wait for them to mature and develop. Look at Charles Johnson for example. He is just now coming into his own in his third year. Players need time to work on their strength and their hand and foot work. Brown will be a much better player in a year or two. Fortunately we have the time to let him develop because Hurney was smart enough to draft him before we had to have him produce immediately.

This

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I know what your sayin, but with a QB class like the one coming up its hard to wonder about the what if's considering our problem at QB right now.

You dont get QB draft classes like this one every year with the chance to land good talent in the top 30 picks...

It can set us back another 5 years easily if not corrected....

We'll probably finish in the middle of the pack, meaning a top ten pick is out of reach anyway. So assuming a franchise QB will be there for the taking is a little bit of a reach.

Consider this. The last big QB class produced Rivers, Manning, and Roethlisberger at 1, 3, and 11. Then you had J. P. Losman, Matt Schaub, and Luke McCown. Schaub is finally putting up some decent numbers, but he was a third round pick.

This is another deep class, but I'm not assuming that all of the quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds will be stars. What's more likely is that the first couple taken eventually star, one out of the next three does well while the others are exposed as system QBs, and someone taken low ends up starting for years. Think Steve Beuerlein there as a good example.

That's just my thinking on it. You guys all seem to think that a first round pick is a ticket to a star QB. I just don't buy it, not unless we end up at 1-15 again. And even then we risk an Alex Smith or David Carr pick. There's just no guarantee at all.

[Woodie]

I wish we could get a QB of the future just like most Panther fans. However, I just do not see this as an outstanding QB draft like some are saying. There seems to be a lot of potential, but little refinement in this year's crop. So we would be about as likely to hit on one in the second or third round as the first. This is why I am not particularly concerned about giving up our first for Brown. If we lose Peppers, as many expect/want, then having a guy like Brown with a year of development under his belt waiting in the wings would be a huge blessing.

Lets take a look at the QB's:

Clausen - Probably the safest QB in this draft, but he will be out of our reach, trade or no trade.

Locker - Has a great arm, but questionable accuracy, ability to read defenses, and decision making. So while he has loads of potential, he is still very raw and will take some time to develop into a starter...if he does at all.

Bradford - Great accuracy, but doesn't have great zip. He has also struggled some when faced with a lot of pressure. Some experts think he is a huge bust candidate.

McCoy - He actually could go in either the first or second. Regardless, there are questions about his arm strength and ability adapt to the NFL because of the offense he plays in. He's my personal favorite at the moment, but he is certainly far from a sure thing.

The Golden Calf of Bristol - If he goes in the first, it will probably only be to Jacksonville, otherwise he could go anywhere up until the third or fourth round. He's not a great passer, and a lot of people question whether he can ever become a starting QB in the NFL.

Pike - Has questionable arm strength, and some wonder if he is a product of his system. It didn't help his cause when his backup came in and played at least as well as he had.

Snead - Has all the tools, however he has not played particularly well this season. Would be picked based on potential, not production. After the season he's had, there is a good chance he doesn't come out this year anyway in hopes of improving his stock for next year's draft.

Then you have guys from the smaller schools like LeFevour and Hiller. Both have some very good things going for them, but neither is, nor would likely become a legitimate candidate for the first round.

Bottom line is that I don't think we lost much by trading our pick (and potentially gained a whole lot). If there was a huge gap between the QB's that are expected to go in the range of where we're supposed to pick and those expected to go in the second and thrid round, then I might feel differently. But I just don't see enough separation to feel we cost ourselves as much as some think.

[scpanther22]

I wish we could get a QB of the future just like most Panther fans. However, I just do not see this as an outstanding QB draft like some are saying. There seems to be a lot of potential, but little refinement in this year's crop. So we would be about as likely to hit on one in the second or third round as the first. This is why I am not particularly concerned about giving up our first for Brown. If we lose Peppers, as many expect/want, then having a guy like Brown with a year of development under his belt waiting in the wings would be a huge blessing.

Lets take a look at the QB's:

Clausen - Probably the safest QB in this draft, but he will be out of our reach, trade or no trade.

Locker - Has a great arm, but questionable accuracy, ability to read defenses, and decision making. So while he has loads of potential, he is still very raw and will take some time to develop into a starter...if he does at all.

Bradford - Great accuracy, but doesn't have great zip. He has also struggled some when faced with a lot of pressure. Some experts think he is a huge bust candidate.

McCoy - He actually could go in either the first or second. Regardless, there are questions about his arm strength and ability adapt to the NFL because of the offense he plays in. He's my personal favorite at the moment, but he is certainly far from a sure thing.

The Golden Calf of Bristol - If he goes in the first, it will probably only be to Jacksonville, otherwise he could go anywhere up until the third or fourth round. He's not a great passer, and a lot of people question whether he can ever become a starting QB in the NFL.

Pike - Has questionable arm strength, and some wonder if he is a product of his system. It didn't help his cause when his backup came in and played at least as well as he had.

Snead - Has all the tools, however he has not played particularly well this season. Would be picked based on potential, not production. After the season he's had, there is a good chance he doesn't come out this year anyway in hopes of improving his stock for next year's draft.

Then you have guys from the smaller schools like LeFevour and Hiller. Both have some very good things going for them, but neither is, nor would likely become a legitimate candidate for the first round.

I think the guy the panthers will go after is snead...we may have to trade up in the 2nd to get him..but i think he fits what the panthers want to do.

[Woodie]

I think the guy the panthers will go after is snead...we may have to trade up in the 2nd to get him..but i think he fits what the panthers want to do.

If he comes out, I could easily see it. I really like his skill set. He's definitly a high reward kind of guy if you can get his head and confidence back. And if Fox and co. do stay, we'll likely keep Jake as the starter for another year or two, which would give Snead the time he needs.

[OneBadassCat]

My only worry about Brown is that if Fox and company go and the new guy brings in a 3-4 defense that it will set him back. I don't want it turn into a Jarvin Moss type deal. Even though I would like us sign Moss in case Peppers leaves(low risk high reward).