No Team has won the Super Bowl in 20+ years with their QB taking up more than 12.6% of the salary cap

[Ricky Spanish]

Just now, Malt Liquor said:

I disagree with the Mahomes part.

Think back to 2011. How crazy would you sound if you said Rodgers and the pack wouldn't make it back to the SB over the next 11+ years?

Tom Brady has ruined everyone's expectations of how to win a SB. 

[OceanPanther]

If over 12.6% ,,  do teams win more than 5-6 games... ( low threshold  I know  )

 

[Call Me James]

How many of those teams make the playoffs.

Screw it,how many win over 50% of their games?

We're on four straight  losing seasons since Tepper and we're talking suber bowl or bust. Yeesh. 

 

Just say you don't want Watson.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Call Me James

[Jaxel]

Well that's about to CHANGE baby!! Come on home Deshaun.

[The Lobo]

Does this cover how prices go up every with FA and contract extensions? Player A gets a huge deal then next year player b feels like they are better so they want more than player a so price goes up etc. this happens every year, just curious, great info!

[trueblade]

10 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

One scenario is directly related to the ability to build a team and controllable, the other is related to chance.

Apples and oranges man. 

It was mean to demonstrate the fallacy of thinking that since X has never happened, it can never happen. It never happened, until it does.

You could have made this thread in 2006 saying no team had won the Super Bowl with QB taking up more than 10% of the cap. 10% is the magic number. Can't go over that. It's never been done. You would have been 100% right. But then the 2007 Giants won the Super with Eli at 10.75% of their cap.

Okay, fine, you make the thread the following year and say no team has ever won the Super Bowl with a QB taking up more than 11% of the cap. 11% is the magic number. Can't go over that and expect to win. You're absolutely right... until 2011 when the Giants (again oddly enough) win with Eli at 11.71% of their cap.

Fine, 12%. 12% must be the magic number. Can't go over 12% and expect to win. Looks great until 2020 when Tampa comes along and wins with 12.6% of their cap. 

But now, you're convinced 12.6% is the magic number. Can't go over that. Nope. No way...

[electricbluecats]

Specifically on Watson, this is missing a couple things. You have to take out the signing bonus money from his current cap figures--since Houston already paid those amounts at singing they will eat them as dead cap this year once he's traded.

So for 2022, the percentage would be 16.8% (35m/208.2m).

Additionally, one of the benefits of trading for a QB and having the original team eat the singing bonuses is that you now have room to easily restructure, accelerate base salary into new bonuses, and get immediate cap relief and flatten out the cap hits each year.

Honestly his contract is a benefit of any deal when weighed against the level of QB play you should be getting.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

11 minutes ago, Call Me James said:

Just say you don't want Watson.

 

50 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

This is one of the biggest reasons I am so against the Watson trade.

I pretty clearly stated that already.

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, Ricky Spanish said:

 

I pretty clearly stated that already.

LOL

 

How you noticed its mostly the noobs that are digging their feet in for watson?  Any reasonable fan can look at this coaching staff, look at the front office and more importantly look at this roster and realize that trading for watson with the rumored what we have to give up is just going to torpedo this team for God knows how long. 

[Call Me James]

12 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

 

I pretty clearly stated that already.

Yea, and no one is buying your issue being Watson's cap hit.

 

 

[Lets go get it Canes]

What about 12.5?

[Davidson Deac II]

1 hour ago, MVPccaffrey said:

The future of the NFL is winning with a super talented rookie deal QB, or a game manager with good FA around him.

Rogers, Mahomes, Dak; their teams are not getting back

I thought it was building solid teams, then bringing in a great veteran near the end of his career to take that team to the next level (Stafford, Brady at Tampa, Manning).

Fwiw, I don't think there is any one way.  But your way would probably work, if we hadn't screwed up the qb situation so much.    

Edited March 14, 2022 by Davidson Deac II

[jayboogieman]

56 minutes ago, Jaxel said:

Well that's about to CHANGE baby!! Come on home Deshaun.

So, you want him to go to Atlanta since he's from Georgia?

[Mage]

How many QBs a year are taking up more than 12.6% of the salary cap space?

This is the problem I always have when this "evidence" is brought up.  There can only be 1 Super Bowl winner a year.  If there are only 2-3 QBs in any given year taking up 12.6% of the salary cap, then this "evidence" means nothing other that it is just statistically unlikely for any 1 QB in a group of 3 to win what is essentially a one-and-done tournament.  The same as how no MVP has won the Super Bowl since Kurt Warner.  It does not mean MVPs can't win Super Bowls, it just means it is statistically unlikely for 1 QB in a group of 32 to win a tournament for 1 champion

Correlation /=/ Causation