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rayzor

By rayzor,
in Carolina Panthers

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CPantherKing Grand Master

CPantherKing

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, jb2288 said:

We already gave you two? The Seahawks and the Chiefs both did it. Common denominator? Star rookie QB on that first contract. 

Again, see Bengals. I'm too lazy to look it up, but in the last 10 years who has won a Super Bowl besides Brady/Manning/Rookie deal QB... Stafford this year? Flacco maybe? 

First, the Seahawks were not a patient rebuild. They lost patience with Holmgren/Hasselbeck. Dumped Holmgren after 1 bad season after having success but coming up short for 5 straight seasons. Brought in Jim Mora and dumped him in 1 season. Went to Carroll and pressured him to win. He was on the hot seat after 3 QBs in 2 seasons and saved himself with Wilson winning quickly when Matt Flynn was brought in to lead the team. Then winning a SB in Carroll's 4th season. This was not patience at all. It was win now or you're out.

Second, the Chiefs were giving their coaches 3 seasons to win. Edwards out in 3 seasons, Haley out in 2.5 seasons, Crennel out in 1.5 seasons. Reid came in and won immediately like he did in Philadelphia. He did it with Alex Smith in year 1. So, because there was immediate winning he got 4 years. Ownership and the front office were still not happy and they were going to put Reid on the hot seat if he did not find a new QB and move on from Smith. Hunt, Dorsey, and Veach had to light a fire under Reid to move the franchise from contender to champion. They did not want a 10 year situation with Alex Smith the way Reid carried on with McNabb. Reid was pushed to make this change after his 4th year with the Chiefs (and he was winning with Alex Smith).

Neither of these franchise case studies show any form of a long and patient rebuild. It was win now and win big or you're out! No patience and move on from a QB who keeps coming up short.

Third, Foles, Wilson, Brady, Flacco, Manning, Mahomes, and Stafford over the past 10 years. Mahomes and Flacco are the only 1st round QBs who have won the SB with the team that drafted them over the last 10 years. There are 3 teams who won a SB with a QB they drafted in the 3rd/6th round.

Burrow didn't win a SB and that will likely be his one and only shot.

The lesson is, don't draft a QB in the first round and think you're going to win a SB with them. Better chance at drafting a mid round QB and building a defense with those 1st round picks, or trading for a proven 1st round QB and giving them full control after you've built a team they feel they can win a championship with as their unquestioned leader.

I wish people would stop fantasizing about the 1st round rookie franchise QB who will take them all the way and give them a dynasty.

The last 9 dynasties are Chiefs with Mahomes, Patriots with Brady, Seahawks with Wilson, Steelers with Roethlisberger, Rams with Warner, Broncos with Elway, Packers with Favre, Cowboys with Aikman, and 49ers with Montana.

All of these dynasties were winning consistently and in the playoffs by their 3rd season. All had good championship minded head coaches that could roster build and prepare their teams well. Walsh, Johnson, Belichick and Holmgren found their QB from the start. Vermeil lucked into his QB in his lame duck season. Carroll and Reeves spotted their QB while on the hot seat in their 3rd season. Reid and Cowher were winning out the gate, but tied themselves to QBs that couldn't get it done and had to be persuaded by ownership/gm to move on from Alex Smith/Kordell Stewart or the team.

None of these coaches or franchises were patient. Just a couple stubborn coaches that were winning from year one regardless of their QB.

6th rounder in Brady, Undrafted with Warner, 1 pick away from being a 4th rounder in Montana, 3rd round pick in Wilson, 2nd rounder in Favre, and 1st rounders in Aikman/Elway/Roethlisberger/Mahomes

We can all agree Aikman, Elway, and Roethlisberger rank below Brady, Montana, and Warner. Aikman had a consistent dynasty with little impact as QB, Elway was on the verge of a decade long failed dynasty, and Roethlisberger's dynasty was consistently up and down.

We can keep going back too with the Redskins-Theismann, Steelers-Bradshaw, Cowboys-Staubach, Dolphins-Griese, Colts-Unitas, and Packers-Starr.

So, 5 of 15 QBs from NFL dynasties were drafted in the 1st round by the team they led. Only 1 of these 1st round QBs carried their teams to success - Mahomes. Compare that to 8 of the QBs not taken in the 1st round carrying their teams to successful dynasties.

Edited by CPantherKing
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