Getting 2013 QB draft class vibes

[LinvilleGorge]

2005 was a weak QB class. It still produced Aaron Rodgers who slipped to #24 overall.

[kungfoodude]

8 hours ago, AU-panther said:

You are correct, KC is still trying to recover from trading up for Mahomes.

 

Yeah, because that is always how it works.

Any other cherry picking you'd like to try to salvage your argument?

 

[AU-panther]

20 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, because that is always how it works.

Any other cherry picking you'd like to try to salvage your argument?

 

you are correct, didn't work out for the Bills either with Allen.

Either way, I'm not a huge fan of trading up myself, especially for non-QBs. QBs are a different story because they aren't even money bets like other positions, but even then, I would often be hesitant to, for example I sure wouldn't this year.

I just don't agree that missing out a few future 1st round picks automatically cripples your franchise, you are assuming that the teams will hit on those future picks which just doesn't happen like casual fans think. 

I do agree you are giving up 3 future draft picks that could all draft QBs, but San Fran is usually drafting late.

I know you aren't a fan of this QB draft class and your argument is wait for a better QB class, which is a totally valid argument, but for a team that usually drafts later San Fran might have to trade up at some point anyway to get a QB that fits your criteria of being worthy of a first round pick.

Would you prefer a top-5 pick in a loaded class like last year, or 3 later first round picks to pick a QB that will probably be comparable to some of the earlier QBs this year?  Everyone likes to point out that none of these QBs would be in the top 5 last year.  5th QB last year went what? 16th?  So maybe Pickett last to the 20s last year, which is the range you can expect SF to be picking.

Would you prefer Tray Lance, or 3 Kenny Pickett types?  I'm not saying there is a right or wrong answer.  I would probably take the 3 later guys, but you can see why teams trade up like they do for QBs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ForJimmy]

Sam Howell was projected to be a top pick after his 2020 season and Willis was highly ranked as well. So what exactly happened? Is that talent and ability suddenly gone? Or maybe UNC and Liberty (as historically strong football programs…) failed at developing these young signal callers and recruiting OL and weapons to come in so they wouldn’t have to carry their teams on their backs. On the other side Corral and Pickett were draft prospects after year 2020 who did make the jump and develop into bettter QBs, and there is no reason to think they won’t continue to do so. I’ve read Herbert was garbage and underperformed at Oregon, Mac Jones was a backup at best, Josh Allen was raw and didn’t know how to read a defense, Patrick Mahomes was a system QB at Texas Tech, Kyler Murray was too small to play in the NFL.

It’s definitely a gamble and guessing game, but if there is a QB that has traits you like and you believe your staff can further develop him into a franchise QB it would be hard not to take that gamble. The potential benefit can very much outshine the cost. Finding your QB might be the most important job of a GM/Head Coach in today’s NFL. The same people who are hating on Willis and this group will start back peddling if they go to a franchise like the Steelers that is ran correctly.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, AU-panther said:

you are correct, didn't work out for the Bills either with Allen.

Either way, I'm not a huge fan of trading up myself, especially for non-QBs. QBs are a different story because they aren't even money bets like other positions, but even then, I would often be hesitant to, for example I sure wouldn't this year.

I just don't agree that missing out a few future 1st round picks automatically cripples your franchise, you are assuming that the teams will hit on those future picks which just doesn't happen like casual fans think. 

I do agree you are giving up 3 future draft picks that could all draft QBs, but San Fran is usually drafting late.

I know you aren't a fan of this QB draft class and your argument is wait for a better QB class, which is a totally valid argument, but for a team that usually drafts later San Fran might have to trade up at some point anyway to get a QB that fits your criteria of being worthy of a first round pick.

Would you prefer a top-5 pick in a loaded class like last year, or 3 later first round picks to pick a QB that will probably be comparable to some of the earlier QBs this year?  Everyone likes to point out that none of these QBs would be in the top 5 last year.  5th QB last year went what? 16th?  So maybe Pickett last to the 20s last year, which is the range you can expect SF to be picking.

Would you prefer Tray Lance, or 3 Kenny Pickett types?  I'm not saying there is a right or wrong answer.  I would probably take the 3 later guys, but you can see why teams trade up like they do for QBs.

You are also making an assumption that SF wouldn't end up with a top 10 pick if they don't have a franchise QB.

That is the big risk with that move. If you miss, your shot at a franchise QB is probably gone for three years if you can't make something happen in free agency.

That is why I say "franchise altering." It is hard to keep a team together for three years in the NFL, espwcially if things don't go well. Or maybe your coach gets canned.

Yeah, whiffing when you make that kind of gamble....it IS franchise altering. 

[AU-panther]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

You are also making an assumption that SF wouldn't end up with a top 10 pick if they don't have a franchise QB.

That is the big risk with that move. If you miss, your shot at a franchise QB is probably gone for three years if you can't make something happen in free agency.

That is why I say "franchise altering." It is hard to keep a team together for three years in the NFL, espwcially if things don't go well. Or maybe your coach gets canned.

Yeah, whiffing when you make that kind of gamble....it IS franchise altering. 

but if you have a top-10 pick your team is already bad so you can't really alter down.

 

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Sam Howell was projected to be a top pick after his 2020 season and Willis was highly ranked as well. So what exactly happened? Is that talent and ability suddenly gone? Or maybe UNC and Liberty (as historically strong football programs…) failed at developing these young signal callers and recruiting OL and weapons to come in so they wouldn’t have to carry their teams on their backs. On the other side Corral and Pickett were draft prospects after year 2020 who did make the jump and develop into bettter QBs, and there is no reason to think they won’t continue to do so. I’ve read Herbert was garbage and underperformed at Oregon, Mac Jones was a backup at best, Josh Allen was raw and didn’t know how to read a defense, Patrick Mahomes was a system QB at Texas Tech, Kyler Murray was too small to play in the NFL.

It’s definitely a gamble and guessing game, but if there is a QB that has traits you like and you believe your staff can further develop him into a franchise QB it would be hard not to take that gamble. The potential benefit can very much outshine the cost. Finding your QB might be the most important job of a GM/Head Coach in today’s NFL. The same people who are hating on Willis and this group will start back peddling if they go to a franchise like the Steelers that is ran correctly.

All those early projections are typically based on initial impressions and/or expectations of progression. Remember, Spencer Rattler was also projected as a top 10 pick too.

What happened with those guys is that they didn't improve and under increased scrutiny(film study, watching workouts, etc) they didn't hold up.

The Senior Bowl was the perfect example of that. Willis impressed the way you expected him to, his raw physical talent. But all his question marks about questionable decision making or being a one read guy, that didn't improve. Same with Howell. He's a gamer and he has some decent tools but he doesn't appear to have any elite traits. He didn't shine and he didn't stink it up. So is he a guy you want to hitch your franchise future to in the 1st round?

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

but if you have a top-10 pick your team is already bad so you can't really alter down.

 

I mean....you are a Panthers fan, right?

[AU-panther]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

I mean....you are a Panthers fan, right?

you were talking about the 49ers

 

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

you were talking about the 49ers

 

This scenario applies to us. You are probably about to see Rhule say "hold my beer" on that sentiment.

It can get a lot worse, even if you are already picking in the top 10.

[ForJimmy]

31 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

All those early projections are typically based on initial impressions and/or expectations of progression. Remember, Spencer Rattler was also projected as a top 10 pick too.

What happened with those guys is that they didn't improve and under increased scrutiny(film study, watching workouts, etc) they didn't hold up.

The Senior Bowl was the perfect example of that. Willis impressed the way you expected him to, his raw physical talent. But all his question marks about questionable decision making or being a one read guy, that didn't improve. Same with Howell. He's a gamer and he has some decent tools but he doesn't appear to have any elite traits. He didn't shine and he didn't stink it up. So is he a guy you want to hitch your franchise future to in the 1st round?

I really would consider anyone’s Senior Bowl performance into much consideration. You have a week to practice with all new players and staff and a lot of the OL didn’t show up, instantly collapsing on Howell (he is probably use to that). The Senior Bowl is just another version of the combine with interviews and practices for coaches to get to see these players up close. If you are going by performances (which I wouldn’t) Pickett was had 0 incompletions and a TD. I think Howell and Willis have some good traits that could translate well in the NFL. Pickett could be solid too. They all need coaching/development which is pretty normal. Last year’s loaded class didn’t look so hot their rookie year (outside of Mac). Willis and Howell have both been mentioned as film room guys, but when the line falls backwards on you they couldn’t really go through progressions and develop further. They had to force throws and run a lot more putting the team on their backs. They still had decent seasons all things considered. 
My best case scenario would be a trade down and walk away with Howell/Willis (I know that’s probably not going to happen). Just wait the Steelers will take one of these QBs like the Pats did last year and we will be whining stating they went to a perfect scenario when they start looking good. 

[BurnNChinn]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

I really would consider anyone’s Senior Bowl performance into much consideration. You have a week to practice with all new players and staff and a lot of the OL didn’t show up, instantly collapsing on Howell (he is probably use to that). The Senior Bowl is just another version of the combine with interviews and practices for coaches to get to see these players up close. If you are going by performances (which I wouldn’t) Pickett was had 0 incompletions and a TD. I think Howell and Willis have some good traits that could translate well in the NFL. Pickett could be solid too. They all need coaching/development which is pretty normal. Last year’s loaded class didn’t look so hot their rookie year (outside of Mac). Willis and Howell have both been mentioned as film room guys, but when the line falls backwards on you they couldn’t really go through progressions and develop further. They had to force throws and run a lot more putting the team on their backs. They still had decent seasons all things considered. 
My best case scenario would be a trade down and walk away with Howell/Willis (I know that’s probably not going to happen). Just wait the Steelers will take one of these QBs like the Pats did last year and we will be whining stating they went to a perfect scenario when they start looking good. 

It will be because they have a great coach, we don’t have that!

[ForJimmy]

4 minutes ago, BurnNChinn said:

It will be because they have a great coach, we don’t have that!

That would mean a great coach realizes they have potential to be a good QB in this league though? These guys are all busts remember? 

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I really would consider anyone’s Senior Bowl performance into much consideration. You have a week to practice with all new players and staff and a lot of the OL didn’t show up, instantly collapsing on Howell (he is probably use to that). The Senior Bowl is just another version of the combine with interviews and practices for coaches to get to see these players up close. If you are going by performances (which I wouldn’t) Pickett was had 0 incompletions and a TD. I think Howell and Willis have some good traits that could translate well in the NFL. Pickett could be solid too. They all need coaching/development which is pretty normal. Last year’s loaded class didn’t look so hot their rookie year (outside of Mac). Willis and Howell have both been mentioned as film room guys, but when the line falls backwards on you they couldn’t really go through progressions and develop further. They had to force throws and run a lot more putting the team on their backs. They still had decent seasons all things considered. 
My best case scenario would be a trade down and walk away with Howell/Willis (I know that’s probably not going to happen). Just wait the Steelers will take one of these QBs like the Pats did last year and we will be whining stating they went to a perfect scenario when they start looking good. 

Not the game, man. The game is irrelevant. The practices are what matters at the Senior Bowl.

The best case scenario is to avoid all these QB's.