Getting 2013 QB draft class vibes

[Growl]

8 hours ago, mav1234 said:

Tbh, drafting a bad qb in the first isn't the death sentence it used to be.  More and more teams are willing to move on after a couple years, during which time other aspects of the team can grow too.  

I'd still rather not draft Pickett at 6 but oh well.

I always lol when I hear the “drafting the wrong QB can set your team back 10 years!!” bit

 

like lol what? Why? How?

there's about a two year evaluation period, you’re either going to have a franchise QB or you’re not-you might have one if you draft one and you definitely won’t if you don’t 

Edited February 6, 2022 by Growl

[AU-panther]

13 minutes ago, Growl said:

I always lol when I hear the “drafting the wrong QB can set your team back 10 years!!” bit

 

like lol what? Why? How?

there's about a two year evaluation period, you’re either going to have a franchise QB or you’re not-you might have one if you draft one and you definitely won’t if you don’t 

exactly

also if you don't have a QB your team is already "set back"

 

[kungfoodude]

It is much easier to pivot from a bad QB draft pick but it is a set back. If nothing else, you lost a potential starter to build around. If you traded up to get them, it could have cost you even more.

I love Trey Lance as a prospect but if he isn't a franchise QB, the cost to obtain him is franchise altering. 

[BlitzMonster]

11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It is much easier to pivot from a bad QB draft pick but it is a set back. If nothing else, you lost a potential starter to build around. If you traded up to get them, it could have cost you even more.

I love Trey Lance as a prospect but if he isn't a franchise QB, the cost to obtain him is franchise altering. 

And it's the opportunity cost.  Who could you have had at that pick that would now be starting for you ?

For instance, if the Panthers take a QB this year at #6 and he busts, the team misses out on a LT in a  strong class of OL in 2022.  

[Jackie Lee]

20 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It is much easier to pivot from a bad QB draft pick but it is a set back. If nothing else, you lost a potential starter to build around. If you traded up to get them, it could have cost you even more.

I love Trey Lance as a prospect but if he isn't a franchise QB, the cost to obtain him is franchise altering. 

Yeah don't agree with their trade up logic for Lance, but for us..We took CMC over Mahommes/Watson, DJ Moore over Lamar Jackson, YGM over Jalen Hurts(2nd round). All of those were worth the gamble instead of the safer pick and wouldn't have set us back any more than we already are from churning through other teams castaway QB's since 2018

[Growl]

12 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

And it's the opportunity cost.  Who could you have had at that pick that would now be starting for you ?

For instance, if the Panthers take a QB this year at #6 and he busts, the team misses out on a LT in a  strong class of OL in 2022.  

lots of teams get “generational” left tackles every single year, and they all stay terrible.

You’re not “getting a player to build around” by drafting another position, you’re just getting a guy to tread water with until you find a franchise QB.

the opportunity cost of a meaningful swing at the QB position *buries* a “sure fire” selection at any other spot on the field.

opportunity cost is defined by rarity, and there is always an opportunity to find a good player at every other spot on the field

that isn’t true for QB

Edited February 6, 2022 by Growl

[kungfoodude]

Just now, Jackie Lee said:

Yeah don't agree with their trade up logic for Lance, but for us..We took CMC over Mahommes/Watson, DJ Moore over Lamar Jackson, YGM over Jalen Hurts(2nd round). All of those were worth the gamble instead of the safer pick and wouldn't have set us back any more than we already are from churning through other teams castaway QB's since 2018

I don't disagree but I also think this is the one class you just don't want to gamble. We had our shot last season with Fields and Jones on the board.

All these 2022 QB's scream 2nd or 3rd string NFL guys. 

But I am also very biased towards OL due to the situation there. The odds of hitting a HR at OL seem so high.

[Jackie Lee]

16 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I don't disagree but I also think this is the one class you just don't want to gamble. We had our shot last season with Fields and Jones on the board.

All these 2022 QB's scream 2nd or 3rd string NFL guys. 

But I am also very biased towards OL due to the situation there. The odds of hitting a HR at OL seem so high.

Totally agree, I left out the 2019/Burns year because there weren't any QB's worth taking, same as this year unless we had a 2nd/3rd rnd pick and you wanted a long term backup/developmental guy for cheap. 

[45catfan]

So we released QB James Morgan in November and re-signed PJ Walker to be the backup going forward at the end of the season.  PJ's ceiling is know, Morgan's not so much. My point is I know we had a glut of QBs there for a few weeks, but letting the one guy go who potentially had the most upside...to promptly get snatched up once he hit waivers was S-T-U-P-I-D.  I'm not saying the guy would turn into a franchise QB, probably not, but an upgrade over PJ Walker?  Almost definitely!

I really liked this guy coming out of college as a developmental prospect.  He has the tools, but not the experience.  So much so, although he's bounced around some teams, he never has a problem finding a new home.  A lot of teams seem intrigued by the guy, just nobody is ready to give him a start outside of preseason.

I wonder if Rhule (never will happen) ever cut PJ how long he would stay on waivers?  My guess is a significant amount of time.

[mav1234]

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Seems like the relative consensus was stock up for Willis, stock even or slightly up for Howell, stock down for Pickett, Zappe, Strong, Ridder.

 

Just a really terrible QB class on paper. After the Senior Bowl, probably worse than anticipated.

A lot of what I've heard is that Pickett was basically fine and polished, had one bad day, but the hand questions just amplified between having trouble on a rainy day and refusing measurements.

Willis improved during practice but he's sooooo raw, especially in reading defenses.

[mav1234]

9 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

So we released QB James Morgan in November and re-signed PJ Walker to be the backup going forward at the end of the season.  PJ's ceiling is know, Morgan's not so much. 

I mean you're right in this post but let's be real, Morgan didn't go to Temple or Baylor so he never had a real shot.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

Whoever gets picked at 6 (if it is a QB) is gonna be Josh Rosen'd so hard.

I would demand a trade immediately tbh and refuse to sign the contract

Edited February 6, 2022 by Sean Payton's Vicodin

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

It is much easier to pivot from a bad QB draft pick but it is a set back. If nothing else, you lost a potential starter to build around. If you traded up to get them, it could have cost you even more.

I love Trey Lance as a prospect but if he isn't a franchise QB, the cost to obtain him is franchise altering. 

Franchise altering is a bit much.  Just as there is no guarantee that Lance works out there is no guarntee that the other players will either.

So San Fran ended up giving up this years 29th pick, and we have to assume they might be decent next year, so lets say they end up giving up pick 22 next year. (10th best team maybe)

I won't count last year because its not fair to judge players in their rookie year but lets look at 2018-2020.  Here are the players picked at 22 and 29.

Rashaan Evans, Taven Bryan, Andre Dillard, LJ Collier, Justin Jefferson, Isaih Wilson, Caleb Farley, and Eric Stokes.

Jefferson was a heck of a pick and Dillard was decent but the others?  Hardly franchise altering.  As far as the 3rd round pick goes your chances are even less.

Fans severely overate the quality of players that teams get even in the first round round, especially towards the back of the first round.  Not to give Hurney too much credit but we have actually done quite well with our 1st round picks in the past.

With all that being said I'm usually not a fan of trading up , but when a QB is involved the risk/reward is different.

 

 

[top dawg]

18 hours ago, RJK said:

A QB at 6 basically makes the panthers the jets for the next 5 years 

I highly doubt that. If one draft pick fugs you up for five years, you have some deep-seated issues.