Worst Kept Secret at the Senior bowl (Panthers Interest in Pickett)

[Call Me James]

9 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

From a logic standpoint I would say Rhule thought Darnold was as good as any rookie in the 2021 draft so he passed on Mac and Fields for Horn. I would imagine he knows he was wrong and once again we need a QB so if the opportunity to draft another Mac Jones or any young QB with upside presents itself again, he would look at it much differently. Then again logic and Rhule really don’t go together…

There's that too. Hopefully he accepts that he can't identify QB talent and stop trying to big brain it.

[Mr. Scot]

5 minutes ago, Call Me James said:

There's that too. Hopefully he accepts that he can't identify QB talent and stop trying to big brain it.

He has yet to realize that he's out of his depth trying to coach in the NFL.

That whole thing about the process 1000% working with people not seeing it doesn't exactly give me a lot of Hope that Matt Rhule is going to come to any realistic conclusions anytime soon.

[Call Me James]

10 hours ago, rippadonn said:

Unfortunately this is somebody Rhule knows intimately so there's that love affair. 

I hope they go younger.

The Temple connection. 

[Call Me James]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

He has yet to realize that he's out of his depth trying to coach in the NFL.

That whole thing about the process 1000% working with people not seeing it doesn't exactly give me a lot of Hope that Matt Rhule is going to come to any realistic conclusions anytime soon.

I have to agree. I'd have appreciated him taking some blame and making discussing some shortcomings. Instead he just gaslighted us. I'd hope he'd taken in some criticism on any of the numerous exit meetings from his staff and players here and look to improve. Instead it looks like he's just going to try and reshuffle the deck chairs.

Here's to hoping im wrong, i guess.

[Mr. Scot]

12 minutes ago, Call Me James said:

I have to agree. I'd have appreciated him taking some blame and making discussing some shortcomings. Instead he just gaslighted us. I'd hope he'd taken in some criticism on any of the numerous exit meetings from his staff and players here and look to improve. Instead it looks like he's just going to try and reshuffle the deck chairs.

Here's to hoping im wrong, i guess.

Rhule strikes me as way too narcissistic to accept that he's wrong about something.

He seems like the type who will always be looking for some hidden reason why things aren't working because it can't possibly be his fault.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Mr. Scot

[firefox1234]

This is gonna be a terrible off-season…

[thefuzz]

1 hour ago, firefox1234 said:

This is gonna be a terrible off-season…

This has been a terrible past 6 years.

[mav1234]

2 hours ago, Icege said:

Can't answer for the other user, but can for myself as I've outright called Pickett's ceiling being a game manager.

While he does go through his progressions, there are plenty of throws out there where he either takes the check down (even though he has another man open further downfield) or he forces the ball into a window (that in the NFL is going to be a pick). The latter is due to his lack of arm talent. He can make the NFL throws, but he's not going to be scaring teams with his vertical passing game nor does he have the zip on the ball to make the type of throws we became familiar with during Cam's first tenure. This is further supported by a relatively low YPA (7.3) as well as AYPA (7.5).

The hand size might be a meme at this point, but his turnovers aren't. Over his 48 game college career, Pickett has thrown 38 INTs and fumbled the ball 28 times. That's 4 turnovers every 3 games, and the fact that his numbers were consistent up until his senior year when he suddenly started throwing TDs gives me a lot of concern.

For all of the talk about his athletic versatility, he is not going to break open big plays by scrambling (especially without a fake slide!). He can extend plays behind the LOS and does well keeping his eyes downfield, but his 1.9yd rushing avg tells all that it needs to in regards to how often he's going to make a play with his legs.

I was the first to say it, and I'll keep saying it: Kenny Pickett is Teddy Bridgewater. A smart, pre-snap QB that isn't going to wow you with his scrambling ability nor is he going to impress you with his arm talent. He can get the ball to his playmakers in space, stretching the field horizontally. This is great for college ball, where you can get it to a weapon and just out-athlete the other team. In the NFL though... we have seen how defensive coordinators adjust.

Pickett also doesn't spread the ball around. For his senior year, Jordan Addison accounted for 17 TDs, 1593yds, and 100 receptions. 30% of the receptions, 37% of the passing yards, and 40% of Pickett's TDs went to one player in his senior year. This isn't out of the ordinary either, as Maurice Ffrench was Pickett's preferred target before Addison joined and in his final year with the team Ffrench accounted for over a third of Pickett's completions, yardage, and TDs.

He's the "safest" pick in that he needs the least coaching up out of all of the other QBs when it comes to mechanics and reading a defense, which are very important skills to have if there is a chance at success in the pros. However, it's hard for me to see him as anything higher than a late 1st round pick, but he'll likely go higher than that simply due to the desperation that comes with needing a QB. To be honest, he'll likely be the most successful out of all of the other QB prospects, but that success will be as a game manager and high-upside QB2.

Just like Teddy.

 

Good breakdown, tho I'll note the only reason he's in this discussion is a lot of the concerns you identified with his style of play did change in his final year.  His AYA went up to 9.7, he was pushing the ball down field a lot, his turnovers drastically declined (down to an int% on 1.4% of his throws with 9 total on the year).  That said I still don't think he's a good investment for us.  I just don't think he is a franchise QB... As you point out his big step forward came with an exceptional season from a WR too.  He had an OK 2020 but I would have liked to see more from him earlier.  He's been compared to a more athletic Derek Carr with a slightly worse arm as a rough approximate of how he could end up in the NFL and I can see that.

People (not saying you) don't always know or remember that Teddy actually looked different in college in terms of willingness to go deep and in terms of mental toughness and decision making he excelled.  However relative to pickett, there were concerns with his frame/build and arm strength. Pickett has big pluses on that.  

Minor correction also, Pickett only had 10 fumbles lost total, 5 as a freshman, with only 2 last year. Can't really call them turnovers if they aren't lost.  His numbers in both total fumbles and fumbles lost were not really very different from many other prospects the last few years.

[thennek]

Let’s hope McAdoo is a part of the “picking the QB” process and Rhule listens to a guy who has worked with two future Hall of Famers. The Panthers already are stuck with a project QB in Sam and don’t need another project. 

[45catfan]

8 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

Left FREAKING Tackle

nothing else is acceptable, love Horn’s future but it should have been Slater last year.  

Slater's arms were too short, remember?  However, Rhule loves a QB that can't hold onto a ball in the rain and will be a sack/fumble machine in the NFL.   Just for giggles, I measured my right hand yesterday and it was 9-1/4".  When I hold a regulation sized NFL football, it feels a little big honestly.  This dude has an inch SMALLER hands than mine.  It's no secret why he wears those stupid gloves.  It's not because it's always cold up north...he has to wear them to help grip the damn ball. 

Pickett is already downplaying the significance.  Rhule will too because he recruited him when he was at Temple.

[Icege]

53 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Good breakdown, tho I'll note the only reason he's in this discussion is a lot of the concerns you identified with his style of play did change in his final year.  His AYA went up to 9.7, he was pushing the ball down field a lot, his turnovers drastically declined (down to an int% on 1.4% of his throws with 9 total on the year).  That said I still don't think he's a good investment for us.  I just don't think he is a franchise QB... As you point out his big step forward came with an exceptional season from a WR too.  He had an OK 2020 but I would have liked to see more from him earlier.  He's been compared to a more athletic Derek Carr with a slightly worse arm as a rough approximate of how he could end up in the NFL and I can see that.

People (not saying you) don't always know or remember that Teddy actually looked different in college in terms of willingness to go deep and in terms of mental toughness and decision making he excelled.  However relative to pickett, there were concerns with his frame/build and arm strength. Pickett has big pluses on that.  

Minor correction also, Pickett only had 10 fumbles lost total, 5 as a freshman, with only 2 last year. Can't really call them turnovers if they aren't lost.  His numbers in both total fumbles and fumbles lost were not really very different from many other prospects the last few years.

Agreed on most (if not all!) points.

To expand on Pickett though, out of the other known "top QBs" for this draft (Willis, Howell, Corral, Strong, and Ridder), the only QB that fumbled the ball more often and turned it over more often was Desmond Ridder. In Ritter's defense, he did score more often?

QB	Games	Fumbles	Fumbles Lost	Fumble Avg	INTs	TOs	TO Avg	TOT TDs
Kenny Pickett	54	28	12	0.5185	32	44	0.8148	101
Sam Howell	37	18	7	0.4865	23	30	0.8108	109
Carson Strong	32	11	4	0.3438	19	23	0.7188	74
Desmond Ridder	50	26	17	0.5200	28	45	0.9000	115
Malik Willis	29	14	5	0.4828	18	23	0.7931	76
Matt Corral	37	13	7	0.3514	23	30	0.8108	75

Admittedly, I'm still traumatized from the Jimmy Clausen era. Pickett could by all means be an average NFL QB, but I don't think that's what we're looking for when we say we want a franchise guy.

(I'm all aboard the Aqeel Glass train fwiw)

Edited February 7, 2022 by Icege

[mav1234]

15 minutes ago, Icege said:

Agreed on most (if not all!) points.

To expand on Pickett though, out of the other known "top QBs" for this draft (Willis, Howell, Corral, Strong, and Ridder), the only QB that fumbled the ball more often and turned it over more often was Desmond Ridder. In Ritter's defense, he did score more often?

QB	Games	Fumbles	Fumbles Lost	Fumble Avg	INTs	TOs	TO Avg	TOT TDs
Kenny Pickett	54	28	12	0.5185	32	44	0.8148	101
Sam Howell	37	18	7	0.4865	23	30	0.8108	109
Carson Strong	32	11	4	0.3438	19	23	0.7188	74
Desmond Ridder	50	26	17	0.5200	28	45	0.9000	115
Malik Willis	29	14	5	0.4828	18	23	0.7931	76
Matt Corral	37	13	7	0.3514	23	30	0.8108	75

Admittedly, I'm still traumatized from the Jimmy Clausen era. Pickett could by all means be an average NFL QB, but I don't think that's what we're looking for when we say we want a franchise guy.

(I'm all aboard the Aqeel Glass train fwiw)

Very few of those QBs played as many years as Pickett tho, and as your fumble percentage indicates it's pretty close on percentage. We are talking one or two fumbles difference over 50 games.  Same with overall TOs.  Ultimately I think Pickett protects the ball fine... He does make occasional overly aggressive plays that risk turnovers but especially the last 2 years his decision making seems to have improved.

I agree he's not a franchise guy but he's nothing like Clausen etc...  His throwing motion is so much cleaner and quicker... Honestly I just think his ceiling isn't high enough that he's worth a high first round pick, and his sloppy plain in the rain at the Senior Bowl practices only cemented concerns about his hand size with NFL balls.

I've only seen a few highlights of Glass but I'll take a look. Not that I'm any good at evaluating QBs, lol.

[Luciu5]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

Just for giggles, I measured my right hand yesterday and it was 9-1/4".  When I hold a regulation sized NFL football, it feels a little big honestly. 

Are you holding the ball at the laces???

Also out of curiousity, my hands measure 8 1/2" - same as Pickett's. But I'm 5' 6" tall. If he legit has a hand condition, that's going to have to evaluated more closely. I'd be curious what his left hand measures just as a comparison.

[BlitzMonster]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

He has yet to realize that he's out of his depth trying to coach in the NFL.

That whole thing about the process 1000% working with people not seeing it doesn't exactly give me a lot of Hope that Matt Rhule is going to come to any realistic conclusions anytime soon.

The hires of McAdoo, Tabor and Clampen all suggest somebody at the top realizes Rhule needs help from coaches with NFL experience.  

If that's Rhule, then great.  He's growing as a coach and as a person.  If these hires were forced on him by Fitterer then Rhule's self awareness is still an ongoing problem.  

We'll see . . .