Worst Kept Secret at the Senior bowl (Panthers Interest in Pickett)

[TLGPanthersFan]

Even if we get Pickett or some other QB I will try to think positively. He can't be as bad as Darnold and he won't be damaged goods like Darnold. Also, and this is more personal, Google won't tell me I am spelling Arnold, Darnel or Donald wrong. 

Rhule knows that he is on limited time and that mean desperation. So he will draft a QB thinking that if they can fix the O-line in free agency and later draft picks maybe he will win enough to stay for another year. Unfortunately our cap space isn't that great and after we pay whatever players I doubt we will have enough to get any offensive lineman worth anything.

This offseason is gonna suck.

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, Call Me James said:

If his ceiling is Mac Jones and we passed on Mac Jones because there were better players at positions of need I don't see why we'd reach for Pickett. Logically speaking. 

From a logic standpoint I would say Rhule thought Darnold was as good as any rookie in the 2021 draft so he passed on Mac and Fields for Horn. I would imagine he knows he was wrong and once again we need a QB so if the opportunity to draft another Mac Jones or any young QB with upside presents itself again, he would look at it much differently. Then again logic and Rhule really don’t go together…

[mav1234]

3 hours ago, BurnNChinn said:

He’s not a first rd qb, I’m sorry

This isn't accurate.  I don't think he is a top 10 pick.  But based on people that judge QBs far better than I can, he has a first round grade.

[mav1234]

3 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

It’s the same thing everyone was saying about Mac. If they don’t have cannons for arms the Huddle doesn’t think they can make it in the NFL. Pickett isn’t my top choice, but he is good at extending plays and making his reads. Seems pretty cerebral kind of like a Mac Jones that can scramble better and maybe has a stronger arm. It’s like you said though, will Rhule develop him properly and create an offense around his strengths like the Pats did with Mac? Doubt it…

I believe Pickett has a better arm (in terms of strength) than Jones.   But no, Rhule won't develop any kind of good offense around anyone.  Any QB we take will probably look atrocious.  Unless McAdoo manages to work some magic, which I doubt he will.

2 hours ago, Call Me James said:

If his ceiling is Mac Jones and we passed on Mac Jones because there were better players at positions of need I don't see why we'd reach for Pickett. Logically speaking. 

darnold being on the roster and liking him more than Jones/Fields or something dumb, probably.  But Pickett isn't really like Mac Jones as a prospect, I don't think.  Maybe I'm wrong... 

Pickett seems significantly more mobile and athletic than Mac Jones.  He's not nearly as mobile as Malik Willis but he's not gonna get called a statue like Jones occasionally did.  I still think his ceiling isn't likely to be very high tho and I'd rather gamble on a first round QB than go with something safe.

Ofc, Fields was the player to do that with annndd...

[unicar15]

2 hours ago, mav1234 said:

This isn't accurate.  I don't think he is a top 10 pick.  But based on people that judge QBs far better than I can, he has a first round grade.

Sam Darnold had a top 5 grade. The one thing that separates Darnold from Pickett you could argue is decision making (basically turnovers). But I honestly think Pickett is a game manager at best. Which imo is worse that drafting a terrible QB bc then nobody will ever move off him. You end up with Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill. Just good enough to not get replaced but not good enough to win any big ones…

[tukafan21]

Left FREAKING Tackle

nothing else is acceptable, love Horn’s future but it should have been Slater last year.  

[mav1234]

58 minutes ago, unicar15 said:

Sam Darnold had a top 5 grade. The one thing that separates Darnold from Pickett you could argue is decision making (basically turnovers). But I honestly think Pickett is a game manager at best. Which imo is worse that drafting a terrible QB bc then nobody will ever move off him. You end up with Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill. Just good enough to not get replaced but not good enough to win any big ones…

Draft grades don't always predict player success... But if Pickett ends up having a career like Matt Ryan I suspect he'll go down as a good pick for whomever takes him.

[BurnNChinn]

2 hours ago, unicar15 said:

Sam Darnold had a top 5 grade. The one thing that separates Darnold from Pickett you could argue is decision making (basically turnovers). But I honestly think Pickett is a game manager at best. Which imo is worse that drafting a terrible QB bc then nobody will ever move off him. You end up with Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill. Just good enough to not get replaced but not good enough to win any big ones…

Exactly what I’ve been thinking, good enough to get u to playoffs and lose first rd every year. I’m sorry but I’m not spending a first rd pick on that.

[ForJimmy]

5 hours ago, unicar15 said:

Sam Darnold had a top 5 grade. The one thing that separates Darnold from Pickett you could argue is decision making (basically turnovers). But I honestly think Pickett is a game manager at best. Which imo is worse that drafting a terrible QB bc then nobody will ever move off him. You end up with Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill. Just good enough to not get replaced but not good enough to win any big ones…

Just out if curiosity why do you think he is a game manager? Again he isn’t my top pick or even top QB pick, but you aren’t the first person that said this and I’m just wondering where it came from. He took a Pitt team and put up huge numbers while winning the ACC championship with them (yea I now the ACC had a down year). I wouldn’t think Pitt has the same level recruits as a lot of the other schools, maybe middle of the pack? That makes me think he is outplaying his competition and elevating his team. 

[Icege]

16 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Just out if curiosity why do you think he is a game manager? Again he isn’t my top pick or even top QB pick, but you aren’t the first person that said this and I’m just wondering where it came from. He took a Pitt team and put up huge numbers while winning the ACC championship with them (yea I now the ACC had a down year). I wouldn’t think Pitt has the same level recruits as a lot of the other schools, maybe middle of the pack? That makes me think he is outplaying his competition and elevating his team. 

Can't answer for the other user, but can for myself as I've outright called Pickett's ceiling being a game manager.

While he does go through his progressions, there are plenty of throws out there where he either takes the check down (even though he has another man open further downfield) or he forces the ball into a window (that in the NFL is going to be a pick). The latter is due to his lack of arm talent. He can make the NFL throws, but he's not going to be scaring teams with his vertical passing game nor does he have the zip on the ball to make the type of throws we became familiar with during Cam's first tenure. This is further supported by a relatively low YPA (7.3) as well as AYPA (7.5).

The hand size might be a meme at this point, but his turnovers aren't. Over his 48 game college career, Pickett has thrown 38 INTs and fumbled the ball 28 times. That's 4 turnovers every 3 games, and the fact that his numbers were consistent up until his senior year when he suddenly started throwing TDs gives me a lot of concern.

For all of the talk about his athletic versatility, he is not going to break open big plays by scrambling (especially without a fake slide!). He can extend plays behind the LOS and does well keeping his eyes downfield, but his 1.9yd rushing avg tells all that it needs to in regards to how often he's going to make a play with his legs.

I was the first to say it, and I'll keep saying it: Kenny Pickett is Teddy Bridgewater. A smart, pre-snap QB that isn't going to wow you with his scrambling ability nor is he going to impress you with his arm talent. He can get the ball to his playmakers in space, stretching the field horizontally. This is great for college ball, where you can get it to a weapon and just out-athlete the other team. In the NFL though... we have seen how defensive coordinators adjust.

Pickett also doesn't spread the ball around. For his senior year, Jordan Addison accounted for 17 TDs, 1593yds, and 100 receptions. 30% of the receptions, 37% of the passing yards, and 40% of Pickett's TDs went to one player in his senior year. This isn't out of the ordinary either, as Maurice Ffrench was Pickett's preferred target before Addison joined and in his final year with the team Ffrench accounted for over a third of Pickett's completions, yardage, and TDs.

He's the "safest" pick in that he needs the least coaching up out of all of the other QBs when it comes to mechanics and reading a defense, which are very important skills to have if there is a chance at success in the pros. However, it's hard for me to see him as anything higher than a late 1st round pick, but he'll likely go higher than that simply due to the desperation that comes with needing a QB. To be honest, he'll likely be the most successful out of all of the other QB prospects, but that success will be as a game manager and high-upside QB2.

Just like Teddy.

 

[BurnNChinn]

9 minutes ago, Icege said:

Can't answer for the other user, but can for myself as I've outright called Pickett's ceiling being a game manager.

While he does go through his progressions, there are plenty of throws out there where he either takes the check down (even though he has another man open further downfield) or he forces the ball into a window (that in the NFL is going to be a pick). The latter is due to his lack of arm talent. He can make the NFL throws, but he's not going to be scaring teams with his vertical passing game nor does he have the zip on the ball to make the type of throws we became familiar with during Cam's first tenure. This is further supported by a relatively low YPA (7.3) as well as AYPA (7.5).

The hand size might be a meme at this point, but his turnovers aren't. Over his 48 game college career, Pickett has thrown 38 INTs and fumbled the ball 28 times. That's 4 turnovers every 3 games, and the fact that his numbers were consistent up until his senior year when he suddenly started throwing TDs gives me a lot of concern.

For all of the talk about his athletic versatility, he is not going to break open big plays by scrambling (especially without a fake slide!). He can extend plays behind the LOS and does well keeping his eyes downfield, but his 1.9yd rushing avg tells all that it needs to in regards to how often he's going to make a play with his legs.

I was the first to say it, and I'll keep saying it: Kenny Pickett is Teddy Bridgewater. A smart, pre-snap QB that isn't going to wow you with his scrambling ability nor is he going to impress you with his arm talent. He can get the ball to his playmakers in space, stretching the field horizontally. This is great for college ball, where you can get it to a weapon and just out-athlete the other team. In the NFL though... we have seen how defensive coordinators adjust.

Pickett also doesn't spread the ball around. For his senior year, Jordan Addison accounted for 17 TDs, 1593yds, and 100 receptions. 30% of the receptions, 37% of the passing yards, and 40% of Pickett's TDs went to one player in his senior year. This isn't out of the ordinary either, as Maurice Ffrench was Pickett's preferred target before Addison joined and in his final year with the team Ffrench accounted for over a third of Pickett's completions, yardage, and TDs.

He's the "safest" pick in that he needs the least coaching up out of all of the other QBs when it comes to mechanics and reading a defense, which are very important skills to have if there is a chance at success in the pros. However, it's hard for me to see him as anything higher than a late 1st round pick, but he'll likely go higher than that simply due to the desperation that comes with needing a QB. To be honest, he'll likely be the most successful out of all of the other QB prospects, but that success will be as a game manager and high-upside QB2.

Just like Teddy.

 

This is why I want Rhule gone. He just wants game managers and let defense when the game. This is a new NFL you don’t win games with just defense anymore. If u look at most of the coaches getting hired, it’s OC. I’ve been saying since Rivera left that’s what we needed to go after.

[Mr. Scot]

11 hours ago, rippadonn said:

So do you endorse Pickett? 

I don't want a quarterback in the first round this year.

I want an offensive lineman.

[Growl]

This is from pfn’s report on the guy and I’d say it’s probably a big part of the appeal, as was the case with Wilson last draft

“Going further with Pickett’s elasticity, he flashes the ability to adjust his arm angles on throws. Pickett generates velocity off-platform and delivers accurate throws on the run. Even off his back foot, he creates impressive momentum. Furthermore, he can methodically place balls according to receiver leverage downfield, and he improved his consistency in this area in 2021.”

 

being able to make throws off center Is So Hot Right Now, combine that with his frame and he’s definitely going to be a high draft pick.

id really be looking hard into Willis and Willis is definitely going to have an easier path to OROY but I get all of the above.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Growl

[Mr. Scot]

11 hours ago, BlitzMonster said:

No surprise Pickett did well with the interviews since he was the oldest QB at the Senior Bowl and had played for 5 years.  He should be the most polished and mature.  

The big question is whether he's topped out or if there's more room for him to grow as a player.   He'll be 24 starting his first NFL preseason camp.  

My fear with Pickett is that he's reached his peak and won't replicate his college success in the pros.