Alright screw it, take Pickett

[trueblade]

2 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

One more takeaway from Icege's QB list:  most every year had at least one or two good QB's.

Even 2014, which seemed like the worst of the bunch, had Teddy Bridgewater.  He may be limited in a lot of ways but Bridgewater can game manage OK.    Maybe 2015 had none with Jameis Winston currently a FA.  

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.  

 

Ice stopped at 2014. 2013's draft class was terrible top to bottom. There's a chance 2022 is every but as bad a QB class as 2013's. 

[Luciu5]

3 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

One more takeaway from Icege's QB list:  most every year had at least one or two good QB's.

Even 2014, which seemed like the worst of the bunch, had Teddy Bridgewater.  He may be limited in a lot of ways but Bridgewater can game manage OK.    Maybe 2015 had none with Jameis Winston currently a FA.  

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.  

 

Absolutely. I think a lot of thought though is it's a waste of a pick for a game manager. Lots of people seem to think it's franchise guy or bust...but don't spend the pick unless you are 1000% certain it's a franchise guy. The way I see it, if it's an upgrade, then take a guy in the first round. If you can upgrade again next year or the year after, do that. Right now, we need an upgrade over Darnold. I'd love to see us on the cusp of playoff contention over this poo we're in right now.

[BlitzMonster]

3 minutes ago, trueblade said:

Ice stopped at 2014. 2013's draft class was terrible top to bottom. There's a chance 2022 is every but as bad a QB class as 2013's. 

You are right !  I just looked at 2013 and here's what I found:

	1	16	Buffalo Bills	EJ Manuel	QB	Florida State	ACC
	2	39	New York Jets	Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia	Big 12
	3	73	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Mike Glennon	QB	N.C. State	ACC
	4	98	Philadelphia Eagles	Matt Barkley	QB	USC	Pac-12
	4	110	New York Giants	Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse	Big East	]
	4	112	Oakland Raiders	Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas	SEC
	4	115	Pittsburgh Steelers	Landry Jones	QB	Oklahoma	Big 12
	7	221	San Diego Chargers	Brad Sorensen	QB	Southern Utah	Big Sky
	7	234	Denver Broncos	Zac Dysert	QB	Miami (OH)	MAC
	7	237	San Francisco 49ers	B. J. Daniels	QB	South Florida	Big East
	7*	249	Atlanta Falcons	Sean Renfree	QB	Duke	ACC

That's a pretty wretched list.  Some years really don't have any talent.  

[BlitzMonster]

In light of the new information and other insightful comments, I'll amend my earlier conclusion. 

As Luciu5 says, a game manager QB isn't really worth a high pick.  The opportunity cost is not worth it to pass on a super talented guy (DE, LT) who could be a game-changer.  

So it looks like 2013, 2014 and 2015 all have QB that are best skipped.   The key is to only draft a FRANCHISE QB and they just don't come along every year.  

[Icege]

45 minutes ago, Shocker said:

WTF is up with the edit window here?  Is that to just fug with us or what?  Why not make in like 5 mins.

I miss the Preview Post button.

I have absolutely brutal ADHD (if you couldn't already tell from how I waterboard folks with walls of text) and even after re-reading something multiple times I'll still inevitably find an error that I missed T_T

[davos]

9 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

In light of the new information and other insightful comments, I'll amend my earlier conclusion. 

As Luciu5 says, a game manager QB isn't really worth a high pick.  The opportunity cost is not worth it to pass on a super talented guy (DE, LT) who could be a game-changer.  

So it looks like 2013, 2014 and 2015 all have QB that are best skipped.   The key is to only draft a FRANCHISE QB and they just don't come along every year.  

Pretty much. It’s dependent on if the FO thinks they found one.

Bills did with Allen at #6, Shanahan thought so with Lance, the new Jets management likewise with Wilson. Guys that came rather out of nowhere until their final year or so in school.

Although their size and arm combos put them above any prospects this year. There’s just no THAT tantalizing with this class.

 

[PantherFanInPhilly]

I didn't read through all 14 pages of this thread, but just curious...are most Huddlers in agreement to take Pickett? Surely not, right?

[Icege]

1 hour ago, BlitzMonster said:

With a quick analysis, it looks like around 1/2 of 1st round QB's make it as decent starters (depending on how you want to define "decent").   And of these starters, many went 1.1 in the draft.  

After that, it's basically nobody.  Derek Carr and Dak Prescott were starters from the later rounds but that's 2/65 if I counted correctly.  And that ratio ignores the multitude of UDFA.  I'd guess most of the UDFA QB's were just training camp arms.  

My takeaway is if you don't get a QB in the 1st, it's not going to happen.  And actually it should be high in the first, like the top 10 picks or even top 5.  

Most of the fan studies do support what you're saying in regards to being most likely to get a QB in the first two rounds (with a huge drop-off between the 1st and 2nd). The chances of landing a franchise QB outside of the 1st? Next to non-existent, even though the chances of landing one in the 1st round isn't exactly reassuring.

• 2nd (7) - Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo are the only success stories here for 42.9% hit rate in the 2nd.
• 3rd (10) - Jacoby Brissett and CJ Beathard have gotten chances to show that they can start. The verdict is still out on Davis Mills, but he hasn't eliminated himself yet so we'll go ahead and include him as a hit for a rate of 30% in the 3rd over the last 10 years.
• 4th (13) - Dak Prescott is the only franchise guy from this, but let's go ahead and include Josh Dobbs who's made it as a back-up and Logan Thomas who is now the starting TE for Washington. That's a 23.1% chance of drafting a QB in the 4th that does at least something to contribute to the team.
• 5th (14) - I refuse to acknowledge Nathan Peterman as a success story. I mean... maybe a half point for Jake Fromm just so that there's SOMETHING? 0.04%.
• 6th (11) - Gardner Minshew is the name here, though Sudfeld has kept alive as a back-up. Sam Ehlinger put out some interesting tape this season also. We'll be kind here and include them to make it a 27.3% hit rate.
• 7th (14) - Alone stands Trevor Siemian. 7.1% hit rate.
• UDFA (104) - Huntley & Heinicke look to be the only meaningful success stories from this group. That's a hit rate of 0.02% if you're hoping to find the next Tony Romo.

Nobody in the last 8 years has found a franchise QB outside of the 1st round with the exception of Dak (4th) and possibly Hurts (2nd). However, not including the last two drafts, only 7 out of 19 QBs drafted in the 1st round are with the team that drafted them. Those QBs are Murray, Jones, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, and Watson. Of that group, Jones and Mayfield might not be with their original teams after the upcoming season and Watson isn't even able to play due to his legal troubles.

When we look at the current crop of QB prospects, depending on what makes a player a 1st round prospect for you, there's arguably only 2 - 4 guys that with 1st round grades (with only two of them being worthy of top-15 selections!). So even though I understand the chances of finding a guy outside of the 1st being very slim, I also understand that gambling on the next Teddy Bridgewater at #6 is even more harmful (and this is coming from somebody that likes Teddy!).

Edited February 1, 2022 by Icege

[Icege]

1 hour ago, BlitzMonster said:

But almost every class has talent.  It's all about finding the guy who's a good fit for your system and developing him correctly.

It amazes me how much casual fans overlook the importance of a QB's fit within a system. I guess they're looking for the same versatility that Matt Rhule looks for in an offensive lineman. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Icege

[Ocpanthertew714]

Watching him at the senior bowl.

Looking like David Carr but with much smaller phalanges.

Probably Rhule's lock at 6.

[Luciu5]

1 hour ago, Icege said:

So even though I understand the chances of finding a guy outside of the 1st being very slim, I also understand that gambling on the next Teddy Bridgewater at #6 is even more harmful (and this is coming from somebody that likes Teddy!).

You have to play to win. If you never roll the dice, you'll never find your franchise guy. You can take the safe pick over and over again, but until you win the QB lottery, you will never be more than a playoff contender. That's where you need smart scouts and front office to really get some sort of hint of who could be and who isn't. This year, is any of these guys worth it at 6? Idk. I don't get paid to watch QBs all day and night. Will none of these guys be franchise QB's? Doubt that. I bet one of these guys will be legit. I hope that guy is a Panther next year.