Inside Fitterer's head

[MHS831]

Thought I would plunge into Scott's Brain to see what might be going on.

Key Variables

Although the Panthers are not saying it as loud as they should, we need a Quarterback more than any other position because you cannot win without one.  We also need an offensive line and a few other pieces.  So where will we do our shopping? 

A QB in free agency:  That sounds great, but there is one problem.  A top end, game changing QB ain't coming to Charlotte right now.  Small market, three consecutive 5-win seasons, terrible OL...  So do we hope to find a QB in a bad situation and make him great by building around him?  Like we did Teddy?  Like we did Cam?  Like we did Sam? 

A QB in the draft:  Every year we pick in the top 10 and do not take a QB, careers rest on the success rate of those that we did not take--for a DT, a CB, etc.  If Fields or Jones become solid starting QBs, it looks bad--yes, we have other needs, but what need is bigger than QB?  What if we take OT Cross this year and he does well at LT--and we leave Pickett on the board (for example) and he takes his team to the playoffs?  Will people say, "Scott.  That Cross was one helluva pick!"  Nope.  They will say, "Hey dumbass--you passed on QB again and they are now kicking your ass."

Did we really think we had the answer in Darnold?  That makes the brain trust look stupid about talent evaluation.  This year, there is a good chance that the Panthers will have their choice of the QBs at #6--do they pass over a QB again?  I do not see it--I see possibly trading back and taking a QB, but I do not see a QB in free agency and I do not see one in the draft after round 1--maybe even in round 1.   It is a bad predicament.

A look at the Offensive line:  While the smart move is to draft an elite OT, that automatically makes this third year of Rhule the first year of a two-year turnaround. So let's say we draft a T and maybe a G later; what about QB?  Darnold will be in the last year of his deal and will not be re-signed and your only reserve is a good XFL player (or whatever that league was called).  So if you wait to draft a QB in 2023, you have to draft a stud who can start day 1.  No learning curve; no developmental grace period.  He starts because that is all we have.

We know that Brady Christensen has some skills that suggest he can start at LT--he just needs some technique to be coached into him. We know that we can find a pair of higher-end guards in free agency for less than the cost of a QB.  Elflein is not overpowering by any means, but he has starting NFL experience at C.  I think the team will draft a center in round 4 and sign at least 1 (maybe 2) guards in free agency.  I think, with this being a "need to win now" year for Rhule, they will be forced to do address the OL in free agency and draft a QB. 

Even if the QB is not ready in 2022, he would be developing this year.  If you do not like him, you can draft another one in 2023 or sign a free agent when you have the cap room.

I am not sure what I would do---I am saying, "These are the variables in Fitterer's head, and if you analyze them, you can make a calculated guess as to what he might do."  Rhule's hot seat is also in play; they are not looking 2-year turnaround.  He knows he must win in year 3 like he did in college.   This offseason is going to be interesting.  Men will be made or destroyed based on decisions they have to make.

[45catfan]

The team made their bed with Darnold, period.  He's likely to be the starter next season if I had to guess.  The Panthers are in a no-win situation on the QB front.  A rookie QB starting means a 99.9% chance of a losing season, Darnold starting is still likely a losing season, but a few more wins and probably no significant upgrade can be had in a trade without sacrificing the future.  That's the scary part, this team was pretty aggressive in trades this season signaling a 'win now' mentality.  If Rhule thinks his butt on squarely on the hot seat for next year, he could give a crap about how that leaves the team in 2023 and beyond, giving the farm away all the while as he's on his way out the door.

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

The team made their bed with Darnold, period.  He's likely to be the starter next season if I had to guess.  The Panthers are in a no-win situation on the QB front.  A rookie QB starting means a 99.9% chance of a losing season, Darnold starting is still likely a losing season, but a few more wins and probably no significant upgrade can be had in a trade without sacrificing the future.  That's the scary part, this team was pretty aggressive in trades this season signaling a 'win now' mentality.  If Rhule thinks his butt on squarely on the hot seat for next year, he could give a crap about how that leaves the team in 2023 and beyond, giving the farm away all the while as he's on his way out the door.

This is all true.  We are stuck with Darnold and/or a rookie qb.  Thats why it makes sense to build the line this draft (where there are some top level guys) and then use our top 5ish pick next season to get the qb position right.  Forcing another qb into this situation would be insanity.

[45catfan]

7 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

This is all true.  We are stuck with Darnold and/or a rookie qb.  Thats why it makes sense to build the line this draft (where there are some top level guys) and then use our top 5ish pick next season to get the qb position right.  Forcing another qb into this situation would be insanity.

My biggest worry is Rhule has already primed Tepper for a better, yet non-winning season with a nod to 2023 as the year it comes all together.  Remember, Rhule has a 7-year deal and next season isn't even the halfway point.  Rhule is the ultimate used car salesman, so unless the wheels come completely off this coming season, I'm not convinced that even another losing season is necessarily Rhule's last straw.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

The team made their bed with Darnold, period.  He's likely to be the starter next season if I had to guess.  The Panthers are in a no-win situation on the QB front.  A rookie QB starting means a 99.9% chance of a losing season, Darnold starting is still likely a losing season, but a few more wins and probably no significant upgrade can be had in a trade without sacrificing the future.  That's the scary part, this team was pretty aggressive in trades this season signaling a 'win now' mentality.  If Rhule thinks his butt on squarely on the hot seat for next year, he could give a crap about how that leaves the team in 2023 and beyond, giving the farm away all the while as he's on his way out the door.

They really are in a "no win" situation.  However, I do not think the people who will be making the decision will think long term--and they know Darnold is horse poopie.  We can address (at least on paper) the OL with BC, Moton, Elflien + 4th round C, and maybe Brown if we sign a higher-end G or two. 

No win---Rhule has been check mated.

This is what Fitterer might do--based on a few variables.  It is easy for us to say--"get your QB in 2023" but if you are Rhule and Fitterer, there is no 2023.  So what will they do? 

To me, there are some backups who might be ready to start and see Carolina as a place that is wide open:  Mariota, Minshew, Trubiski--and we could hope to find a Jake Delhomme that way--I think they all need a system that plays to their skill sets, but that is true for about all QBs--

Rhule has tipped his hand a bit--"investing in OL" and "gonna develop a run game" so maybe he plans to reduce the pressure on Sam.  Maybe that is his plan--that and waiting for the Michigan job to open.

[mrcompletely11]

6 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

They really are in a "no win" situation.  However, I do not think the people who will be making the decision will think long term--and they know Darnold is horse poopie.  We can address (at least on paper) the OL with BC, Moton, Elflien + 4th round C, and maybe Brown if we sign a higher-end G or two. 

No win---Rhule has been check mated.

This is what Fitterer might do--based on a few variables.  It is easy for us to say--"get your QB in 2023" but if you are Rhule and Fitterer, there is no 2023.  So what will they do? 

To me, there are some backups who might be ready to start and see Carolina as a place that is wide open:  Mariota, Minshew, Trubiski--and we could hope to find a Jake Delhomme that way--I think they all need a system that plays to their skill sets, but that is true for about all QBs--

Rhule has tipped his hand a bit--"investing in OL" and "gonna develop a run game" so maybe he plans to reduce the pressure on Sam.  Maybe that is his plan--that and waiting for the Michigan job to open.

But hey, on the flip side, if by some miracle Rhule and Darnold makes the playoff next year he probably coaches another couple of year. so theres that

[45catfan]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

They really are in a "no win" situation.  However, I do not think the people who will be making the decision will think long term--and they know Darnold is horse poopie.  We can address (at least on paper) the OL with BC, Moton, Elflien + 4th round C, and maybe Brown if we sign a higher-end G or two. 

No win---Rhule has been check mated.

This is what Fitterer might do--based on a few variables.  It is easy for us to say--"get your QB in 2023" but if you are Rhule and Fitterer, there is no 2023.  So what will they do? 

To me, there are some backups who might be ready to start and see Carolina as a place that is wide open:  Mariota, Minshew, Trubiski--and we could hope to find a Jake Delhomme that way--I think they all need a system that plays to their skill sets, but that is true for about all QBs--

Rhule has tipped his hand a bit--"investing in OL" and "gonna develop a run game" so maybe he plans to reduce the pressure on Sam.  Maybe that is his plan--that and waiting for the Michigan job to open.

The team may look to go old school in revert back to a John Fox mentality and lean heavy on the run game.  I'm not sure investing in the OL is purely looking to upgrade pass-pro (which is obvious), but being able to pound the rock effectively.  Keeping Darnold in 3rd and manageable is the objective.  His short passing game isn't the problem, it's the longer routes where he has to deal with the back seven.  Quick hitters like HB screens, smoke screens, slants, stacked concepts where a 'rub' gets a guy free in the first several yards...things like that he's efficient at.  The problem was we were nearly always in 3rd and long where the pass rush came into play and deeper routes came into play, thereby requiring Sam read the entire secondary.  That, we know, he's pretty bad at.

[LinvilleGorge]

4 hours ago, 45catfan said:

The team may look to go old school in revert back to a John Fox mentality and lean heavy on the run game.  I'm not sure investing in the OL is purely looking to upgrade pass-pro (which is obvious), but being able to pound the rock effectively.  Keeping Darnold in 3rd and manageable is the objective.  His short passing game isn't the problem, it's the longer routes where he has to deal with the back seven.  Quick hitters like HB screens, smoke screens, slants, stacked concepts where a 'rub' gets a guy free in the first several yards...things like that he's efficient at.  The problem was we were nearly always in 3rd and long where the pass rush came into play and deeper routes came into play, thereby requiring Sam read the entire secondary.  That, we know, he's pretty bad at.

This is the full embracement of shooting for 8-9.

[45catfan]

24 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This is the full embracement of shooting for 8-9.

All Rhule needs to get a year 4, so...

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This is the full embracement of shooting for 8-9.

Right out if range from drafting one of the top QBs next year. Might as well extend Darnold another year…

[pantherj]

I would place the likelihood of Sam being injured badly next season at high. Our o-line will likely be below average at pass blocking again, and Sam can't read the field. That means we'll be playing from behind, and forced to throw the ball. That will result in Sam taking a lot of big hits, and presto another major injury for Sam. That will bring out the hilarious PJ and his antics, and I think that could get us into the top 5 in the draft.

[section543]

Of the two-QB or OL-OL is the only one that can realistically be upgraded this offseason. If I’m Fitterer (maybe even Rhule), I solidify the OL and hope it helps Darnold by not running for his life at the snap.

it would help the run game and if Darnold still stinks, at least you have one of the issues much improved. There will be 4-8 OT, a C, and possibly 2 G, available in the first two rounds that would immediately help. A trade back to grab two, a FA or two, and OL much improved.

[grimesgoat]

I think the idea will be to draft a QB and let him sit for 8-10 weeks.  I think Howell, Corral, or Pickett all have a chance to be somewhat successful if given some time to learn and get up to speed.  And at least one of these guys will be available around picks 15-20.

They will trade back, grab an extra 2nd, and pick Howell or Picket somewhere in the 12-18 pick range.  Then they use the second to trade back and pick up an extra third or two.  I think they want to walk out with a Day-1 starting guard and a pass-catching TE, along with a developmental QB.  The rest of the draft (picks 4,5,5,6) will be for the defense.

Darnold will be mediocre, but with a temporarily healthy CMC, they should be able to scratch out some wins early.  Maybe go 3-5 or 4-6 before turning it over to our new hero.

Picking a QB allows for the argument that the plan is working and they are developing their franchise QB, even if the wins are not there.  They may be able to get away with it if they can manage 7 wins and are competitive in their losses.

But if the team looks like they have packed it in, like they did late last year, then he done.

[unicar15]

I think Howell and Corral (maybe Willis) end up being the best QBs of the bunch. None have elite traits that make them top 10 picks. Be comfortable with any of the three and try to move down to 10-13. Take whichever one is available and try to solve the line in free agency and maybe end of 1st, early 2nd with picks you get in a trade down. 
 

You either do that or you stay out and take the best OT and suck bad enough next year to get Young or Stroud (which also probably isn’t a bad way to go).