Sam Howell

[Michael G]

2 minutes ago, Anybodyhome said:

I don't watch a lot of college football but if Howell was getting blown up behind a bad O-line at UNC, won't he just end up just like another QB named Sam we all know- getting crushed behind a terrible line and never having the opportunity to show what he could do with even a modicum of protection?

You could be right on the money. It will largely depend on what changes are made to the OL as far as players and scheme with the New OC coming in and offseason roster turnover.

[CPantherKing]

41 minutes ago, Catsfan69 said:

Every QB in this draft has a ceiling of Ryan Tannehill at best.

Not every QB. Just the ones being talked about as the top QBs in this draft.

[AU-panther]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

If we plug Howell into this offense as is he will get destroyed and will fail miserably.  Tom Brady would fail with our OL.  

but if you fix the OL and don't have a QB it doesn't matter either.

Fact is we need to fix both, but the QB is the harder one to find.  

[Shocker]

Joe Burrow is going to be a superstar.  So impressive what he has done with that team (off a bad injury no less) with a similarly terrible OL is amazing.

[KillerKat]

Best thing is to trade back and get a QB and draft OL the rest of the draft.

[OldhamA]

19 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

Interesting. Where do you think VanDyke will transfer to after this season? 

Possibly the Carolina Panthers if they don't waste a Top 10 pick on a QB this year.

[Icege]

2 hours ago, AU-panther said:

7.3 is lower than some other QBs, but was it because that is what his system asked him to do or because he couldn't more.  His last year was actually 9.7.

Kenny Pickett College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.co

Justin Herbert's last year was 8.1.

Justin Herbert College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

You have to be carefull when you are deciding if a player isn't asked to do something as opposed to when they can't do something.

Also this tweet might surprise some people

 

 

Even if his receivers are slowing down he is still completing more than almost any other QBs in the league.

Now speaking of hand size, I'm not sure if I would really consider an advanced metric.  Also anyone who is worried about it needs to make sure to stand up for Rhule whenever anyone criticizes him for passing on Slater for arm length.

If you look at some real advanced metrics, such as grade under pressure and accuracy at various levels of the field he is actually pretty good.

Biggest issue with Pickett is the one year of play.  That scares people.  If he had this same level of play for two years he would be a top-10 lock.

 

 

You're looking at average air yards there, not average yards. His AY/A was 9.7, but his Y/A was 8.7. He definitely looked deeper this year, especially considering that his AY/A were 7.3, 6.3, 6.3, 6.8 prior to the 9.7 jump. The Herbert stat you looked at for 8.1 is actually 9.0 when comparing the same stat. Herbert's numbers are consistently higher than Pickett's despite Herbert playing in a system where he didn't often push the ball deep downfield.

The hand size isn't an advanced metric, but it is another ding against him. The hand size concern correlates to his propensity to fumble, which he averaged once every other game. During the same time span in the pros, Russell Wilson averaged a fumble once every four games (and he's got 10.25" hands). This is a much different issue than arm length, which can be compensated for with quick feet.

Some more metrics, basic or advanced, that hurt him:

• While he's 13-10 vs. top-25 opponents in-season, he's only 3-7 against teams that remained ranked at the end of the season
• His combined stat line from those 10 games is: 183/302 (60.6%) for 1,923yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.0 Y/A; 92 rushing attempts for 120 yards (1.1yd avg), 3 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles. That averages out to a really bad stat line on a per game basis.
• Before 2021, he was 2-6 with the following stat line: 138/230 (60%) for 1,368yds, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.5 Y/A, 79 rushing attempts for 85yds (0.6avg), 2 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Icege

[Jared Patterson]

43 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Possibly the Carolina Panthers if they don't waste a Top 10 pick on a QB this year.

Is he legit? I have been looking into him recently.

[ForJimmy]

1 hour ago, OldhamA said:

They all have significantly better Olines than we do. We literally give up instant pressure inside - when Romo, a guy who has absolutely no skin in this game, is saying "it's not the QB's fault", people should listen. 

Big Dick Van Dyke. 

 

 

Nah when the Chargers took Herbert, they had the bottom ranked OL. As for the Bengals… we’ll they are still terrible in year 2 of Burrow.

Lol, how did I know it would be a Miami guy? Did he even start all year??

[AU-panther]

3 minutes ago, Icege said:

You're looking at average air yards there, not average yards. His AY/A was 9.7, but his Y/A was 8.7. He definitely looked deeper this year, especially considering that his AY/A were 7.3, 6.3, 6.3, 6.8 prior to the 9.7 jump. The Herbert stat you looked at for 8.1 is actually 9.0 when comparing the same stat. Herbert's numbers are consistently higher than Pickett's despite Herbert playing in a system where he didn't often push the ball deep downfield.

The hand size isn't an advanced metric, but it is another ding against him. The hand size concern correlates to his propensity to fumble, which he averaged once every other game. During the same time span in the pros, Russell Wilson averaged a fumble once every four games (and he's got 10.25" hands). This is a much different issue than arm length, which can be compensated for with quick feet.

Some more metrics, basic or advanced, that hurt him:

• While he's 13-10 vs. top-25 opponents in-season, he's only 3-7 against teams that remained ranked at the end of the season
• His combined stat line from those 10 games is: 183/302 (60.6%) for 1,923yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.0 Y/A; 92 rushing attempts for 120 yards (1.1yd avg), 3 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles. That averages out to a really bad stat line on a per game basis.
• Before 2021, he was 2-6 with the following stat line: 138/230 (60%) for 1,368yds, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.5 Y/A, 79 rushing attempts for 85yds (0.6avg), 2 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles

 

what does ay/a stand for?

either way in their last year.

Herbert YA 8.1, Pickett 8.7

Herbert AY/A 9.0, Pickett 9.7

Back to hand size, show me one study that shoes it makes a difference in fumbles.

W/Ls are a team stat, can be very misleading with the disparity among teams, and his pre 2021 stats aren't as good, everybody knows that.  Then you take his stat line from some of his worst 10 games of his entire career.  Its clear you going into this with an agenda and cherry picking stats to fit it.

Try to isolate his play.  How is accuracy at various levels of the field relative to the other prospects, and past prospects.  How is his play under pressure, relative to other prospects?  Those answers, paint a different story.

I'm not 100% sold him, and I don't know if I would spend a top 10 pick on him, but his last year has some good tape.  

 

 

 

[Carl Spackler]

Trader Fitt and Rhule are scheming up either trading back to get the worst linebacker they can find and Howell, or they'll just tell you Howell "was our No. 1 guy all along" at 6.

[Carl Spackler]

He'll be a decent backup for somebody like the Titans in 5 years. 

[ForJimmy]

59 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

but if you fix the OL and don't have a QB it doesn't matter either.

Fact is we need to fix both, but the QB is the harder one to find.  

If you fix the OL and ignore the QB you more than likely will pick in the middle like the Colts or Pats (the previous year) and hope a Mac drops to you? Most teams get their QB and then build around him. 

[Shocker]

35 minutes ago, Icege said:

You're looking at average air yards there, not average yards. His AY/A was 9.7, but his Y/A was 8.7. He definitely looked deeper this year, especially considering that his AY/A were 7.3, 6.3, 6.3, 6.8 prior to the 9.7 jump. The Herbert stat you looked at for 8.1 is actually 9.0 when comparing the same stat. Herbert's numbers are consistently higher than Pickett's despite Herbert playing in a system where he didn't often push the ball deep downfield.

The hand size isn't an advanced metric, but it is another ding against him. The hand size concern correlates to his propensity to fumble, which he averaged once every other game. During the same time span in the pros, Russell Wilson averaged a fumble once every four games (and he's got 10.25" hands). This is a much different issue than arm length, which can be compensated for with quick feet.

Some more metrics, basic or advanced, that hurt him:

• While he's 13-10 vs. top-25 opponents in-season, he's only 3-7 against teams that remained ranked at the end of the season
• His combined stat line from those 10 games is: 183/302 (60.6%) for 1,923yds, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.0 Y/A; 92 rushing attempts for 120 yards (1.1yd avg), 3 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles. That averages out to a really bad stat line on a per game basis.
• Before 2021, he was 2-6 with the following stat line: 138/230 (60%) for 1,368yds, 4 TDs, 8 INTs, 5.5 Y/A, 79 rushing attempts for 85yds (0.6avg), 2 rushing TDs, 4 fumbles

 

I seriously considered putting something like this together but thank you for doing this analysis.  I haven’t done something similar for Howell but I would bet he was remarkably consistent regardless of comp.  Not amazing mind you but consistent 

I like the idea of comparing players against thier 5 toughest opponents.  Many of these guys feast on lower comp opponents which inflates their stats.

Again…thanks 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Shocker