Michael Lombardi's 7 QB Qualities

[Icege]

Sam Darnold is not the answer. Anybody with a pair of functioning eyes and critical thinking skills knows this to be the case for the Panthers' QB position... so who is? Is it an upcoming veteran free agent or is it a college kid ready to leap to the next level? Is the answer already on the roster? (Hint: No.)

So what makes a player a franchise QB? Arm talent? Accolades and awards? Being a beloved leader of men? With Matt Rhule and company seeming to not know themselves, why not consult with somebody that's been around teams that have successfully found a franchise QB: Michael Lombardi (who's son, Matt, is our current assistant QBs coach). He's been involved with scouting football since 1981 when he was a recruiting coordinator for UNLV and was a scout for the San Francisco 49ers' 1984 Super Bowl. Years upon years later, and he's the assistant to the coaching staff for the New England Patriots during their 2014 run with long-time friend and coworker Bill Belichick. In his book, Gridiron Genius: A Master Class in Building Teams and Winning at the Highest Level, Lombardi lists "7 QB Qualities" that he leans on after watching the league for 30 years and assessing that, "Very few people can coach the quarterback, and even fewer can evaluate them."
 

1. A Winning Way

Quote

"Winning is a habit," Vince Lombardi said. "Unfortunately, so is losing." Bill Parcell's golden rule was to draft prospects with at least 23 wins in college. It told him that a player knew what it took to be successful and was committed to doing the little things that got the job done. Now, 23 wins isn't a magic number, but it's a pretty good indicator. You can't bluff your way to 23 wins, not even in Pop Warner.

.........

Let's look at his yards per attempt in particular. This statistic is telling because it is a representation of what a quarterback is seeing and where he is looking. It's an eye-level test. Higher yards per attempt-say 7.5 or better-indicate a quarterback who is looking long, looking for big plays. Lower numbers indicate a quarterback who may be too concerned about being hit or playing it safe and thus takes the quickest completion.

In Cleveland, we learned the power of this statistic the hard way. When once-great quarterback Bernie Kosar was nearing the end of his career, he was more concerned about his completion percentage than yards per attempt.  During a game against Miami, Kosar was struggling, and Belichick pulled him from the game.

Kosar argued, "How can you pull me? I'm 15 of 19."

To which Belichick immediately snapped back out of the side of his mouth, "Yea, for 82 yards."

Kosar was spending too much time not getting sacked to realize that he was no longer doing the job we were paying him to do.

It's worth noting here that Lombardi specifically cites yards per attempt, not air yards per attempt. A decision to hit an open man in space underneath that can gain several yards after the catch is a better decision than trying to get it to the guy a yard or two further that isn't going to go anywhere. With that in mind, let's take a look at three recent QBs for the Panthers.

Cam Newton, during his first two seasons with Rod Chudzinski as his OC, averaged 7.9 Y/A. After Mike Shula took over, the only time Cam hit close to that average was in 2015 when he matched his rookie Y/A with 7.8. His career Y/A in Carolina is 7.2, but we all know that Cam had a cannon and during his first two seasons the team was taking full advantage of it. The moment that Shula took over as play caller, everything shortened, taking Cam from his 7.9 Y/A under Chud to 7.0 Y/A under Shula. We also very well know about Cam's prolific college career and his ability to win in the NFL.

Teddy Bridgewater, despite popular belief, actually has the higher career Y/A out of all 3 QBs with 7.3 Y/A. In fact, his one year in Carolina netted his highest career average with 7.6 Y/A. To put this in perspective, the last time the Panthers saw anything remotely close to that was in 2015 when Cam somehow went off for 7.8 Y/A in a Mike Shula offense. Teddy also had the 23 wins that Parcells wanted with a 12-1 2013, 11-2 2012, and 7-6 2011.

Finally, Sam Darnold. While he didn't get to that 23 win mark, he was close (21-6). His 8.5 Y/A seems solid, but it's still 3rd behind Teddy's 8.6 and Cam's 10.9 when they were in college. During his time with the Jets, Darnold's Y/A was 6.6. His one year in Carolina? 6.2.

Sam + Teddy were not the answer (Cam is no longer the answer either). However, looking at the 23W + Y/A metrics, we can see a few different things emerge. In his book, Lombardi uses Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson as examples due to Trubisky being a "one year wonder." He pointed out how against top-25 teams Trubisky's Y/A dropped from 8.3 to 6.2. When he was playing ahead, his Y/A jumped to 9.1 vs. 7.2 when he was playing from behind. Deshaun averaged 7.7 Y/A when ahead, 9.4 when down. Watson won 32 games in college compared to Trubisky's 8. Using this model, let's apply it now towards the top QB prospects in this year's draft. We'll take a look at their wins as a starter (keeping in mind the COVID-shortened seasons, I'd argue that lowering the bar to 20 wins is reasonable. While this information isn't enough to come to any sort of accurate conclusion, it's an early look that might be able to guide us going forward.

Wins
1. Desmond Ridder: 44 wins
2. Kenny Pickett: 32 wins
3. Sam Howell: 20 wins
3. Carson Strong: 20 wins
5. Matt Corral: 18 wins
6. Malik Willis: 17 wins

Y/A
1. Sam Howell: 9.2 Y/A [8.6 (2019), 10.3 (2020), 8.8 (2021)]
2. Matt Corral: 9.1 Y/A [10.9 (2018), 7.7 (2019), 10.2 (2020), 9.2 (2021)]
3. Malik Willis: 8.5 Y/A [8.5 (2020), 8.4 (2021)]
4. Desmond Ridder: 7.9 Y/A [7.9 (2018), 6.7 (2019), 8.2 (2020), 8.6 (2021)]
5. Carson Strong: 7.5 Y/A [6.2 (2019), 8.1 (2020), 8.0 (2021)]
6. Kenny Pickett: 7.3 Y/A [7.7 (2017), 6.4 (2018), 6.6 (2019), 7.3 (2020), 8.7 (2021)]

2. A Thick Skin

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"The measure of who we are is how we react to something that does not go our way," says San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. It's definitely a good measure of a quarterback as well. I always tried to find a prospect who had already overcome adversity, and not only on the field. If past performance is the best indicator of future achievement, those who have fought through bad times are likely to be able to do so again. The one thing every young NFL quarterback can be certain of is that he will struggle mightily at some point. Even Peyton Manning went 3-13 as a rookie. Troy Aikman finished 0-11 his first year. So I wanted to know how a prospect handled criticism and whether he let bad plays get to him.

Cam overcame adversity in college after the laptop incident, going to JUCO, and then culminating in a season that resulted in a national title, Heisman, and #1 overall draft status. While he was routinely criticized for how he handled losses, the only people that would call Cam soft are talking heads. We witnessed all we needed to from injuries, car accidents, etc. to know that couldn't be further from the truth.

Teddy, on the other hand, I wouldn't necessarily say has "thick skin" as much as he does "scarred skin." He lets mistakes and criticisms slide off and has fought back from a devastating injury that most folks don't come back from. However, that injury I think scarred him in a way that has him looking to play safe even when he needs to gamble. Where Cam gambled and won, Teddy seems to be the kind of guy that gambled and is just grateful he still has his shoes when he timidly puts a chip each on evens, odds, black, and red.

Do we really need to discuss Sam? He was coddled during the preseason. Where some people might see him having thick skin under duress, I see him dissociating.

When looking at the current prospects, Carson Strong might be worth mentioning due to the way he's handled injuries. I'm not aware of the hardships that any of the other individuals had to endure, but I'm sure the media trauma porn machine will be in full effect here soon to catch us all up.

3. Work Ethic

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"Your best player has to set a tone for intolerance for anything that gets in the way of winning,"  says NBA coach and TV analyst Jeff Van Gundy. Okay, so this is not an earth-shattering revelation, but you'd be surprised how many scouts ignore it. Do you think JaMarcus Russell was the hardest worker at LSU? Or Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M? Here's a hint: Taking care of your body is a pretty accurate indicator of commitment to the job. Being lazy gets in the way of winning. Think of the recent quarterback busts. How many were truly hard workers? Ryan Leaf was 20 pounds overweight at his initial weigh-in. What kind of group rationalization did the Chargers' brain trust have to engage in to convince itself that he was a worthy second overall pick? Your star quarterback needs to be a gym rat, pure and simple-first at practice, last to leave. (It's not the only quality he needs, of course. Case in point: The Golden Calf of Bristol.) Too often, football suits believe they can change a player's work habits. Al Davis thought he could make Russell love the game enough to work as hard as he needed to. He found out soon enough that he couldn't.

Does Sam Darnold love football, or is he just playing it? I'd lean towards the latter, as much has been made by people close to Sam (like Bills' Josh Allen) in regards to his natural athleticism and ability to immediately pick something up. I don't think Cam nor Teddy can be questioned. Cam regularly took responsibility for things that had nothing to do with him and made it a point to improve. Teddy wanted the team to work smarter and harder, given his comments regarding the Panthers' practices lacking any focus on 2min/redzone. The major takeaway from this particular attribute from Lombardi was that you can't teach work ethic. He cites the infamous JaMarcus Russell & Johnny Manziel, of course, but also cites Brett Favre's time with the Falcons. Favre was such a lush that Falcons' coach Jerry Glanville drove around town asking bartenders not to serve Favre. Eventually, the QB was traded to Green Bay and figured himself out. That's an extreme rarity. 

Malik Willis turned heads at Liberty when he arrived there, inspiring his teammates with how hard he worked and uplifted those around him. Following their win over FIU where Malik was hurt, WR DJ Stubbs said afterwards, "Since he stepped foot on campus, he's taken us under his wing, just wanted to be the best he can be, so that he pushes us to be the best we can be, for him. Today, I just showed that wherever you put the ball... whatever you need from me, I can make it happen for you."

As you're probably already noticing, a lot of these QB Attributes overlap. Work ethic and leadership go hand in hand. Innate Ability and A Winning Way are most certainly linked. Etc etc.

4. Football Smarts

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It's not until they get to the NFL that quarterbacks begin to understand the game's tiny crucial details, such as the leverage points of defensive backs or the side of the receiver defenders want to take away, the same way a basketball defender tries to take away an opponent's "stronger" hand. It takes time for a young passer to understand that when a blitz comes from the defensive backfield, the defender responsible for the blitzer's vacated area will cheat to that side, creating a hole in coverage and thus tipping off the blitz.

Subtleties gleaned from studying tape the correct way often make the difference between a Pro Bowl QB and a draft bust. The truly scary thing from a personnel standpoint is that no matter how much you vet a college quarterback, it will always be a 50/50 gamble. Why? Because you simply can't measure his ultimate football smarts and how he'll react to the speed and complications of the pro game until he gets under the center on a Sunday.

When reading this section I started to ask myself, "How can football smarts be measured?" I wanted to keep it simple, so I went with what I felt might be an obvious indicator of decision making: TD-INT ratio.

1. Sam Howell: 92:23 (4:1)
2. Carson Strong: 74:19
3. Desmond Ridder: 87:28
4. Malik Willis: 48:18 (8:3)
5. Kenny Pickett: 81:32
6. Matt Corral: 57:23

Take that for what you will.

5. Innate Ability

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Miami Dolphins fans will tell you that Ryan Tannehill was no quarterback in the crib. Athlete, yes, but a natural for the position? Don't think so. In fact, in high school, Tannehill didn't become the starter until his junior year, and he was only a three-star recruit-listed as an athlete, not a quarterback. At Texas A&M, he was even moved to wide receiver for two years before starting six games at quarterback as a junior. Sure, he impressed a lot of people as the starter on a solid team as a senior, but you couldn't exactly argue that Tannehill was a natural. Whatever that certain something is, he lacks it, and that is what's holding him back in the pros. Because he is not an instinctive player, he doesn't play as fast as he needs to. Don't get me wrong; he is capable of good things. It's just that he doesn't seem capable of fast things. The best indication of this is his play on third down, when blitzes and passing situations speed up considerably. Tannehill's career third-down numbers: 26 interceptions, one-half yard less per attempt than his overall average, and a 58 percent completion rate (vs. 63% overall). When the game pushes him, Tannehill is less productive. If Walsh were still around, he would be telling the Dolphins they need to start looking for a new quarterback, one with more innate ability.

This section describes Sam Darnold to the letter. He played freshman baseball, and then started playing football + basketball during his sophomore year (in which he excelled at basketball, being awards the South Coast League MVP twice) as well as being named to the all-CIF team. On the football field, Darnold was a WR and a LB and didn't play QB until after the starter was hurt. He missed most of his junior year with a foot injury and was rated as a four-star recruit as the 8th best dual-threat QB + 179th best player overall. Due to the lack of tape, his coaches sent videos of his basketball games to football coaches. We regularly see Darnold hold on to the ball and have to make a play when it breaks down because he himself cannot process a defense. He doesn't have that innate ability. We saw Cam regularly do it. Teddy didn't have that innate ability either, and we saw that rear it's head when the team went 0-8 in one score games during his season at the helm.

I wish that I had some immediately available metrics on the current QB class to see if we can measure this (maybe looking at QBR in big games? 4th quarter winning drives?), and nothing in the current class' profiles shows anything that we can really glean from at a quick glance. If anything, Desmond Ridder running away with the win column just might be a testament to his innate ability? 

6. Carriage

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The University of Connecticut's women's basketball coach, Geno Auriemma, benches players-even stars-if he doesn't like the way they are carrying themselves, correcting the problem before it subverts the team. How long, do you imagine, would quarterback Jay Cutler be stuck on Geno's bench? You don't think body language is important? Ask Bears fans. I think Cutlet would still be playing in Soldier Field is his sideline posture indicated he was even a little interested. At times he has looked as if he'd sooner sit in a dentist's chair than get back in the game. Cutler has problems on the field, too, but they are compounded by the way he responds to them. He acts like he just doesn't give a damn. I don't get it. His coaches in Chicago and Miami must have known that his lousy body language would kill credibility among teammates almost faster than his poor play would. Quarterbacks have to inspire. And if they can't always do it with pinpoint throws and blitz-facing courage-everyone has a bad day-they can always look as if they have it all under control and that somehow they will figure out how to lead the team to victory. No one wants to follow a sulker. (Exception: Cam Newton is a Heisman Trophy winner, a number one overall NFL draft pick, and an MVP even though he hunkers down under a towel, argues with coaches, and storms out of press conferences. Go figure. However, he hasn't yet led his team to a Super Bowl, so...)

I think that Randy Marsh speaks for all of us here in regards to that exception:

7. Leadership

Quote

Quarterbacks who fail to gain the respect of teammates leave a team rudderless. When teams I worked for were in the market for a quarterback, we made sure we knew what the teammates of any prospective hires were saying about the guy (off the record, of course). Is his competitiveness contagious or overbearing? Are players willing to go to war with him? Does he command the huddle? Finding the truth isn't easy. College coaches used to be a good source for this kind of stuff, but lately they have become adept at talking up their prospects because they want their guys to make it to the league-and not just for the players' sake. Pros promote programs. Therefore, scouts have to dig deeper to get what they need even if it's not what we want to hear.

Pretty sure having your WR scream at you to "Tighten the fug up!" on the sidelines and then giving a Cutler stare is not a sign of leadership. We've seen the difference in the Panthers' players when Cam steered the team vs. Sam, even if it was to similar results. This is something that cannot be talked up enough, but also something that Panthers fans have a very real concern with given what Matt Rhule has done with the position and players that are outspoken leaders. While his numbers aren't doing him any favours, Matt Corral does have that leadership quality as evidenced in this article. Matt Corral got into a fight with Wayne Gretzsky's son in high school and transferred because he said it was a bunch of, "rich kids," that wouldn't have to, "work a day in their lives." Later, at Ole Miss, During the height of the protests following the murder of George Floyd by police, Corral's teammate put him on the spot and asked him what he thought about what was going on. They specifically pointed out that Corral was the QB, and this player being a defender knowing that it the QB is more-or-less the frontman for the team wanted to know how they would be represented. The way Corral responded afterwards won him the love and backing of those teammates.

 

Throughout his book, Michael Lombardi emphasizes the totality of a football team. He points out how all three phases of the game are equally important, how great players can mask deficiencies but those deficiencies still exist and can be exploited, how a QB's success is directly tied to his fit within the system and the pieces placed around him, etc.

Above all else though, it's a crapshoot.

We've got some young prospects that we can look at to be potential franchise QBs (along with some top flight OL prospects!). Which of them stand out to you as fulfilling these attributes that Lombardi has listed? Are there any possible free agents that you'd be interested in kicking the tires on? How would you compare those currently known commodities to the unknown ones when they were early in their careers as well? Are there any attributes that you specifically look for that might not have been mentioned/covered?

Edited January 25, 2022 by Icege

[Icege]

One day, I'll learn to edit a write-up before posting it and rushing to fix everything within the 10-minute edit window. T_T

Edited January 25, 2022 by Icege

[Toomers]

7 minutes ago, Icege said:

One day, I'll learn to edit a write-up before posting it and rushing to fix everything within the 10-minute edit window. T_T

   You should have stopped at the words Michael Lombardi. I know I did. Was the Marty Hurney method of building a consistent winner sold out? 

[Icege]

3 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   You should have stopped at the words Michael Lombardi. I know I did. Was the Marty Hurney method of building a consistent winner sold out? 

Ironically enough, I edited the post you quoted so that it no longer said...

"To go ahead and get ahead of the dudes that like to wear diapers at the office:

• Yes, I know that you don't like Michael Lombardi.
• Yes, I know that you don't like Matt Rhule.
• Yes, I know that you miss Cam.
• Yes, I know that you hate Sam.
• I'm very proud of you for whatever your one line quip was. Here's pie."

Edited January 25, 2022 by Icege

[Toomers]

1 minute ago, Icege said:

Ironically enough, I edited the post you quoted so that it no longer said...

"To go ahead and get ahead of the dudes that like to wear diapers at the office:

• Yes, I know that you don't like Michael Lombardi.
• Yes, I know that you don't like Matt Rhule.
• Yes, I know that you miss Cam.
• Yes, I know that you hate Sam.
• I'm very proud of you for whatever your one line quip was. Here's pie."

  Or the actual truth. 
 

   “Lombardi is a punch line as a personnel man in NFL circles. His opinion is only of value to someone that doesn’t know any better”

   “Rhule has been a joke since he was hired. What does that matter?”

  I wanted Cam gone from this disaster when cut two years ago and sure don’t want him playing for the Panthers now.”

   What’s thinking that a QB who sucks, has always sucks have to do with anything”

   Or the real question, “how long did it take you in that mess to try and justify Teddy being not that bad again. I haven’t read yet, so I’ll guess halfway”. 
 

Next up: Urban Meyer: How to transition from college to pro football.  

[ForJimmy]

Rather you like Lombardi or not, the info written makes sense. You want a tough, smart QB who has great work ethic, a thick skin, and is a leader of men. These were basically Burrow’s best traits and why he has found success so quickly in the NFL. 

[PhillyB]

nice work

[davos]

Regarding smarts & leadership, there's always a certain level of intangibles that are impossible to tell if they truly translate at the next level.  

Basically, there's one thing with being a leader on a college team, there's another being a 21-23 year old stepping into a locker room of dudes from 22 to their late 30s and getting them to respect you, your skills, and lead them to wins.  It's that toughness and respect added onto the skills that makes the top QBs.  

It's always a blend of things coming together but those two are the unquestionable ones no matter the style or build.  Whether it's a 6'1 200 guy with a great arm or a 6'5 240 with mobility or anywhere in between.   

And that's when I think you need the staff that can ask the right questions and identify who that is.  Not these ones that go gaga over the stats, 40 times, or whatever.  Those of course matter to a degree, but I don't feel comfortable we've got guys that can truly identify an NFL caliber leader both mentally and in-game.  

 

 

[AU-panther]

So QBs are the hardest position on the field so evaluators come up with some subjective qualifiers to try and help them decide.

So QBs need "thick skin", you don't say, or leadership.  How many college QBs who were good leaders in college went on to fail in the NFL.

Speaking of Parcell's formula of wanting a guy with a lot of college experience.  That has changed somewhat in todays college landscape.  Players leave school earlier.  

 

[Verge]

Not to contradict because this is a good thread but 

Patrick Mahomes college record: 
13-19 

Josh Allen college record: 
16-11 

Aaron Rodgers college record: 
18-8 

 

[Toomers]

31 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Rather you like Lombardi or not, the info written makes sense. You want a tough, smart QB who has great work ethic, a thick skin, and is a leader of men. These were basically Burrow’s best traits and why he has found success so quickly in the NFL. 

 And that’s the same answer almost anyone involved with football at any level would give if asked the question. So what makes him different? Even half the posters on hear would give that response. 

[hepcat]

15 minutes ago, Verge said:

Not to contradict because this is a good thread but 

Patrick Mahomes college record: 
13-19 

Josh Allen college record: 
16-11 

Aaron Rodgers college record: 
18-8 

 

it's not the end all be all. Except for Allen, both Mahomes and Rodgers got at least a season on the bench before being thrown to the wolves. Josh Allen is a true exception to many QB paradigms. 

There might not be a "great" QB in this draft class but there's definitely a QB or two you can win with out of this class. Pickett and Corral are my favorites and guys I think will end up being around a Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins type QB. Serviceable and could win you a Superbowl if you have a great team around them. Mahomes was shut down in the Superbowl last year by a ferocious pass-rush. 

[Jackie Lee]

46 minutes ago, davos said:

Regarding smarts & leadership, there's always a certain level of intangibles that are impossible to tell if they truly translate at the next level.  

Basically, there's one thing with being a leader on a college team, there's another being a 21-23 year old stepping into a locker room of dudes from 22 to their late 30s and getting them to respect you, your skills, and lead them to wins.  It's that toughness and respect added onto the skills that makes the top QBs.  

It's always a blend of things coming together but those two are the unquestionable ones no matter the style or build.  Whether it's a 6'1 200 guy with a great arm or a 6'5 240 with mobility or anywhere in between.   

And that's when I think you need the staff that can ask the right questions and identify who that is.  Not these ones that go gaga over the stats, 40 times, or whatever.  Those of course matter to a degree, but I don't feel comfortable we've got guys that can truly identify an NFL caliber leader both mentally and in-game.  

 

 

Matt Rhule is the one who said he didn't want or need Sam to be a leader. Can't make this stuff up

[ForJimmy]

17 minutes ago, Toomers said:

 And that’s the same answer almost anyone involved with football at any level would give if asked the question. So what makes him different? Even half the posters on hear would give that response. 

It’s just discussion for this board on how these traits relate to this QB class. No one is saying it’s groundbreaking or looking for an argument about Lombardi…