Getting back into the top 100 of the draft: A trade scenario analysis

[MHS831]

19 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Like @SteveSmithTD89 said, If a QB is involved, value goes out the window. We could gain a lot of assets by trading with anyone looking for a QB. Our best hope for trading back is no one takes a QB before us at 6. 

And the Giants pick after we do--if they dont pick QB at #5, we will get buried with phone calls.  I think--by the time the draft rolls around---there will be three QBs--maybe 4--who could cause a team to contact us about a trade.

We need to watch free agency too.  It is possible that we address the OL needs there if Brady is to play LT.   Here is how I see it:

LT: Christensen

LG: Free agent

C : Free agent/Elflein/Ervin (remember he played C in college?)

RG: Brown

RT: Moton

• (This would make the OL better on paper, but good enough?)
• If we do that with 2 free agents, then we could look at sitting still at #6 and taking a QB.
• We are going to have desperate men making decisions.  Sticking with Sam Darnold for another season is not going to be the only plan. 

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

And the Giants pick after we do--if they dont pick QB at #5, we will get buried with phone calls.  I think--by the time the draft rolls around---there will be three QBs--maybe 4--who could cause a team to contact us about a trade.

We need to watch free agency too.  It is possible that we address the OL needs there if Brady is to play LT.   Here is how I see it:

LT: Christensen

LG: Free agent

C : Free agent/Elflein/Ervin (remember he played C in college?)

RG: Brown

RT: Moton

• (This would make the OL better on paper, but good enough?)
• If we do that with 2 free agents, then we could look at sitting still at #6 and taking a QB.
• We are going to have desperate men making decisions.  Sticking with Sam Darnold for another season is not going to be the only plan. 

I would bet any amount of money that there will not be 3-4 qbs in this draft that teams will want to trade to 6 for.  Maybe 1.  Maybe and I still dont see it.  The tape is the tape and I dont see any of these dudes blowing away the combine or interviews making a team go nuts. 

[Reebis21]

33 minutes ago, frankw said:

Yet folks think addition by subtraction on one of the league's worst offenses is our way out of the woods. It's hilarious.

The alternative is giving DJ a big extension. He’s not a difference maker. No D coordinator is stressing about how to game plan vs him. Just cuz he’s the best we e had since Smitty doesn’t mean he’s untouchable.
“Addition by subtraction” is what u say when u move a guy without getting anything in return. A 1st or a 2nd & 3rd is very different than just cutting or trading a guy to simply remove him from the equation.

Now if you aren’t confident in us hitting on those draft picks, then fine. I could understand you being hesitant. But giving DJ an even bigger contract does nothing for us. Getting young guys to add to this oline would seriously help us. We drafted TMJ and Shi for a reason. Let em play, they are both talented. However we have NOTHING close to a formidable oline.

[frankw]

Just now, Reebis21 said:

The alternative is giving DJ a big extension. He’s not a difference maker. No D coordinator is stressing about how to game plan vs him. Just cuz he’s the best we e had since Smitty doesn’t mean he’s untouchable.
“Addition by subtraction” is what u say when u move a guy without getting anything in return. A 1st or a 2nd & 3rd is very different than just cutting or trading a guy to simply remove him from the equation.

Now if you aren’t confident in us hitting on those draft picks, then fine. I could understand you being hesitant. But giving DJ an even bigger contract does nothing for us. Getting young guys to add to this oline would seriously help us. We drafted TMJ and Shi for a reason. Let em play, they are both talented. However we have NOTHING close to a formidable oline.

It's tough to say he is or isn't a "difference maker" without an OL or a quarterback who can consistently threaten downfield. Those two factors make not only Moore's job more difficult but also makes life much easier for opposing defenses. You can replace the wide receiver under those conditions but the results will remain. I'm not above trading anyone on this roster as of this moment. But for a franchise that has seen massive investments in defense and a meh approach to offense more often than not over the years result in 7 winning seasons and no back to back winning seasons you're gonna have to forgive me if I'm hesitant to jump for joy at selling off offensive assets after what we've invested in defense. The league is changing and we need to finally switch gears ourselves. I want to build a good offense and finally try another way and if that means a very good defensive player is traded so be it.

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I would bet any amount of money that there will not be 3-4 qbs in this draft that teams will want to trade to 6 for.  Maybe 1.  Maybe and I still dont see it.  The tape is the tape and I dont see any of these dudes blowing away the combine or interviews making a team go nuts. 

Desperate teams do desperate things.  I think it is possible that a team gives Corral and Howell a high grade.  If two go (Detroit and the Giants, for example)I could see a Washington or Pittsburgh reaching. 
It is not a strong draft and the gamble would likely cost the team a second rounder to move up. 

I can see any team falling in love with Howell, Corral, Willis, or Pickett.  Detroit might not like Pickett while the Giants do like him, so the Giants and Lions swap first rounders. At #5, the Lions take Corral.  Washington and Pittsburgh supposedly like Howell (rumor--they have been in attendance at UNC games) and they pull the trigger and call Carolina.  Willis is a wild card--I could see him going anywhere from 5 to 45.

This is unlikely, but possible.  We have seen drafts (the 2011 Cam draft--Gabbert, Lock, Ponder, etc.) went very early after Cam was removed from the board.  I think 4 QBs in the top 12 in a stronger draft than this one. 

But I would not bet it will happen--but it could.

[ECHornet]

56 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I dont think we will trade with NO or ATL for obvious reasons.  I also think QB is on the board for the Giants and if they make that move it will most certainly be in front of us.   Pick 6 pretty much locks us in to a top tier talent at just about every position we want to go (obviously I want a tackle) but there is mad talent still to be had at 6.  If you drop 5-10 spots it becomes much more of a crap shoot.  The top tier talent starts to thin and I am not trusting these keystone cops to evaluate.

 

I know it sucks not having a day 2 pick but we cannot trade out of 6 to simply mask our mistake from last season.  Bite the damn bullet pick a lineman and let the draft come to you.  If someone inquires about a player work through it but for Gods sake last not give someone away simply to recoup from a poo mistake.

 

I think its beyond fair to say that Fitts trade down strategy from last draft is a huge failure as we stand today.  We let way too much talent slip right on by us.

I don’t think it’s fair at all to grade last years draft as a huge failure. 

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, ECHornet said:

I don’t think it’s fair at all to grade last years draft as a huge failure. 

Which is why I said "as we stand today".   It doesnt look good you surely can admit that.  We let a lot of line talent go pass us because fitt was being cute and adding picks

[woahfraze]

I think you're overvaluing our players and that we wouldn't be able to get the returns you've projected for them.

Moore and Burns could probably fetch relatively high draft picks because of their talent.  But you also have to factor in the flipside of them being on relatively cheap rookie contracts--they are sort of rentals at that point and the trading team is not guaranteed to be able to retain them once those contracts are up.  

I don't care if Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn were 1st and 2nd round picks, respectively.  Brown hasn't shown anywhere enough to recoup a 1st.  Chinn was a beast in year 1 and played well in year 2 but because the staff moved him to a less impactful position that's less of a natural fit for him (even if he can still play it), it didn't show as much.  In any case, a LB or S is just not a valuable enough position for a team to want to trade a 1st round pick for the player.

I understand that WR trades have been all over the map in the past, but Anderson didn't show anywhere close enough this past year to garner a 2nd or 3rd.  I could see a 4th possibly.  But he dropped too many passes and showed a poor attitude in his media interviews that any trading team likely isn't going to want to spend that sort of draft capital.  Is an inconsistent at best locker room malcontent going to garner a 4th when there are so many serviceable WRs out there in the league right now? Methinks not.

[catnip]

Solid write up .  Many thanks

[Captain Morgan]

There are 11 teams with over 40 mill in cap space next year, and two more that will likely be there by the time of the draft through cuts and restructures.

That's 13 teams that could pay for one of our guys under contract (like a Robby) and all those teams have even more the following years if they wanted to take a guy on a rookie contract that will be getting paid soon (DJ, Brian Burns, etc).

The Jets have two top 10 picks and 50 mill in cap space....we could work a deal.  Giants are currently over the cap, so they are less likely to trade for a player.   Eagles have only 13 mill, but they could be interested in a player still on a rookie contract (Brian, DJ etc.)

There are some interesting scenarios that will play out, especially after the combine.

 

[Icege]

Oh, is that a MASSIVE wall of well thought out and researched text rather than a knee-jerk reaction to watching other teams play in the postseason?

[mrcompletely11]

From QandA with Brugler:

 

Should the Panthers trade down to accumulate picks?

Dane, do believe the Panthers should/could trade back in his year’s draft due to the fact that they have only one Top 100 selection this year? — Jared F.

 

Absolutely — if they can. There will be multiple teams looking to trade back this year, but most won’t be able to find a deal because few teams will be looking to trade up. The trades that we do see, they might be for less than usual because that’s the market. Unfortunately just bad luck for the Panthers that this is a year with a lackluster top-10, including no top-tier quarterbacks worth trading up for.

[Ricky Spanish]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

From QandA with Brugler:

 

Should the Panthers trade down to accumulate picks?

Dane, do believe the Panthers should/could trade back in his year’s draft due to the fact that they have only one Top 100 selection this year? — Jared F.

 

Absolutely — if they can. There will be multiple teams looking to trade back this year, but most won’t be able to find a deal because few teams will be looking to trade up. The trades that we do see, they might be for less than usual because that’s the market. Unfortunately just bad luck for the Panthers that this is a year with a lackluster top-10, including no top-tier quarterbacks worth trading up for.

God I hope Hurney falls in love with someone and trades away that team's future like he did with ours.

[Catsfan69]

I already made a thread about this OP.

 

We need to do both. Trade back and trade Burns at a minimum. That should give us plenty of picks. Maybe throw in Bouye.