Getting back into the top 100 of the draft: A trade scenario analysis

[Ricky Spanish]

Strap in homies, this one's a novel and 8 pages in MS Word (no double spacing). TL;DR at the bottom.

As we are all aware, we only have one pick in the top 100 of the draft this year. That is not great news for a team with MAJOR holes at OT, OG, C, QB, ILB, S, and DT. There is always free agency to help address these deficiencies, but the best way to fix the issues long term is through the draft. So how do we get valuable draft resources back based on our current situation?

The two most viable options we have are:

• Trade away current players
• Trade down from #6

Let's take a look at each scenario and some potential options the team has:

Option 1: Trade away current players to recoup some draft capital

This team did not play well last season but that does not mean that we are completely devoid of talent. We actually have a decent amount of trade bait at our disposal if someone is willing to pull the trigger. Some teams that are desperate to get over the hump could offer us some deals on players that we currently have that could help us out with draft pick compensation. This is not the best idea if we are looking to compete next season, but if Fitterrer believes he can build for the future after Matt Rhule, he could consider moving on from certain players currently on our roster. I have compiled a list of players who I think we could trade and what I think a realistic return for them would be. This is not necessarily a list of players I WANT to get rid of, just the ones I think have a realistic shot at being moved for draft picks:

• Robby Anderson - Anywhere between a Late 2nd to a late 4th rounder 
  • Gauging WR trade value is damn near impossible when Both Deandre Hopkins and Mohammad Sanu fetch a 2nd rounder, and Randy Moss gets traded for a 4th, and Roy Williams gets traded for a 1st, 3rd, and 6th. It's a crap shoot, but what are you going to do but guess? There are plenty of WR needy teams in the playoffs this year that could think they could be a solid #2 receiver away from a championship. One of these contenders could look at his most recent season and determine that it was mainly coaching and QB ineptitude and believe Robby could flourish with more help from a decent team and attempt to trade him for a steal for a 2nd, 3rd, or even a 4th round pick. Depending on how desperate a team is determines how much they could value Anderson. I believe the following teams are potential trade destinations for his services:
    • Tennessee
    • Green Bay
    • New Orleans
    • Philadelphia
    • New England
    • Miami
    • Indianapolis
    • Chicago
    • Las Vegas
    • Detroit
    • Jacksonville
    • KC
• DJ Moore - 1st round
  • Everything I said about teams needing another receiver above, applies to DJ Moore, except he is more valuable due to age, skill level, and current contract. Same teams apply:
    • Tennessee
    • Green Bay
    • New Orleans
    • Philadelphia
    • New England
    • Miami
    • Indianapolis
    • Chicago
    • Las Vegas
    • Detroit
    • Jacksonville
    • KC
• Brian Burns - 1st round +
  • Burns is young, still on his rookie deal, and shown flashes of greatness, but he has yet to hit that next level. He is most likely our most valuable trade bait asset on the team. Some Pass rush needy team could look at Burns as the missing piece in their defense that could take them to the next level. The following teams could make a play for him in the offseason:
    • Jacksonville
    • Buffalo
    • NY Giants
    • NY Jets
    • Baltimore
    • Kansas City
    • Philadelphia
    • Seattle
    • New England
• Jeremy Chinn - 1st to early 2nd round
  • Chinn is a potential stud but he's a bit of a Safety/LB tweener. Our coaching staff doesn't seem to know how to utilize him to his true potential, but another team very well could. Chinn's value is likely determined by what position his new team would want him to play, but his value is still high based on his rookie contract and tape. Potential landing spots based on needs at Safety:
    • KC
    • Dallas
    • San Fran
    • Philly
    • Atlanta
    • New England
    • Washington
    • Minnesota
  • Potential landing spots based on needs at LB:
    • KC
    • Miami
    • New England
    • GB
    • NY Giants
    • Chicago
• Derrick Brown - 1st to 2nd
  • He took a step back in year two, but then again so did literally everyone else on our roster not named Shaq Thompson. Brown is still young, on a rookie contract, and has potential. There might be a team that thinks they can unlock that potential out there in need of some DT help:
    • Cincy
    • Buffalo
    • Cleveland
    • Las Vegas
    • Baltimore
    • Minnesota

 

• Sam Darnold - lol JK

 

• AJ Bouye - 3rd round
  • Bouye was solid but not spectacular this season. With Horn returning from injury, CJ Henderson now on the opposite side of the field, Keith Taylor getting some experience, and possibly bringing back Gilmore or Jackson next season, Bouye is potential trade bait in one of our deepest position groups. Bouye is older, but on a relatively cheap contract. There were rumors that he was garnering some trade interest before the deadline this past season, so we might be more willing to part with him now. CB Needy teams:
    • San Fran
    • Arizona
    • KC
    • Philly
    • NE
    • Minnesota
    • Tennessee
    • Las Vegas.
• Yetur Gross-Matos - 3rd Round
  • Taken in the 2nd two years ago, Gross-Matos hasn't really shown much improvement since then. We most likely wouldn't get a 2nd for him again, but it is under the realm of possibility that we could flip him for a 3rd. Some team might want a guy to set the edge, or think their staff of legitimate NFL coaches, who can ACTUALLY coach at the NFL level can tap into his potential. Teams that might be interested:
    • Cleveland
    • NY Giants
    • Detroit
    • GB
    • Houston
    • Philly
• **BONUS Scenario** Tag and Trade Haason Reddick - 1st/2nd round pick and maybe a late pick
  • This is not the smartest move due to how much money would then be tied up into one player if a trade doesn't happen, but if we can fenagle the cap in a way that could make it work, it's under the realm of possibility. Tagging a player with a non-exclusive franchise tender allows the player to find a trade partner, but the default asking price to sign him is two first round picks. Would we get the requisite two firsts for him? Probably not. But it IS negotiable and it has happened in the past (Jared Allen was traded to Minnesota after being tagged by KC for a 1st and two 3rds, and Matt Cassel in 2009 was traded to KC along with Mike Vrabel from NE for a 2nd round pick.) So we could potentially get another first out of this, but most likely a 2nd, or maybe a 2nd and some change, which is better than nothing. Teams looking for Edge help:
    • Essentially every team in the NFL is in play here at the variable price. Who doesn't want a legit proven pass rusher?

I did not list CMC in the above scenario due to his ridiculous fuging contract. He is damn near untradeable at this point thanks to that and his injury history unless a guy like McVay or Belichick think they are an all-pro RB away from winning it all. Either way, the above are our most likely candidates to move for draft picks in the first few rounds of the draft.

Source for 2021 current team needs: https://thedraftnetwork.com/team-needs

 

Option 2: Trade down from #6

This, I believe, is the more likely scenario due to Scott's track record of trading back, the draft is VERY top heavy with OL Talent, the draft is VERY light in terms of great QBs, and the fact that we happen to need a guy at every position on the offensive line. Pick #6 might be a bit too high to target a Center, but moving down into 10s/teens would be a great spot to draft Tyler Linderbaum and recoup another pick in the process. But what value does our pick hold?

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=CAR

 

The above chart shows the approximate value of each pick for every round for every team, with us highlighted in green. This list is currently incomplete due to the fact that Compensatory picks have not been announced yet, so there will be many picks added from rounds 3-7 and we will most definitely have our 4th round pick bumped out of the top 100. 

At this point our draft pick at #6 holds 1600 pts in value. The easiest way to determine trade value is making the numbers match. The hard part is trying to identify trade partners, their team's needs, and what they would be willing to give up for them. 

Now where we sit could very well play to our advantage due to those currently picking around us. We are currently sandwiched between two NYG picks at 5 and 7, and also have the Jets flanking us at picks 4 and 10. Based on the link providing insight into each team's needs, we can get a solid idea of what types of players each team in the NFL will be targeting. Every team in front of us but the Giants has a commitment to a QB through recent drafts or contracts. Houston seems to like what they see out of Davis Mills and they also might bring Flores in who Watson absolutely loves, so he might actually come back. Detroit is kind of stuck with Goff's contract and he actually played better the second half of the season so he seems to be safe. The big question mark is the Giants with Danny Dimes. If they are over that experiment, they could pull the trigger on a QB like Pickett and then pick the next available OL at #7. But if they don't, we are sitting at a PRIME location for a team to trade up to take a QB they love. Other teams could potentially be targeting a DE, a WR, or an OL themselves so they may want to skip the line and ensure that they pick a player they love so someone else won't. I think the following teams are our most likely trade Partners as things currently stand, pre FA with the 2022 draft:

• Atlanta
• Denver
• Washington
• Minnesota
• Cleveland
• Philadelphia
• NO

If the Giants pass on a QB, any one of the above teams has the potential to jump up to our spot at 6 and take a new signal caller. However, each of those picks is not created equal, so, mathematically based on the above chart, what would could we realistically anticipate as compensation from each of those teams for the #6 pick

• Atlanta - Rd 1, Pick 8 (1400)+ Rd 2, Pick 63 (276) = 1676 total points.
  • This one is not an extremely likely scenario based on the fact that we are division rivals and you rarely see interdivision trades happen. However, if the Falcons want to draft a signal caller to sit behind Ryan for a year to set up their future, they could try to pull the trigger. If they do, their first and their late 2nd might not be enough. They have another 2nd round pick at 43 that is valued at 470 that could be enough to push the trade over the edge, but are they willing to part with it and are we willing to hand a division rival their future franchise QB? I am not sure.
• Denver - Rd 1, Pick 9 (1350) + Rd2, pick 59 (310) = 1660 total points
  • Denver needs help at QB, OL, and Edge, and plenty of teams picking in front of them are probably targeting every single one of those positions. Why not jump up to 6 to ensure they address one of their needs? This is of course pending a trade for Aaron Rodgers in the offseason, but if they don't, we could reap the benefits of their inability to land one of the best QBs of all time at the twilight of their career for the second time within a decade.
• Washington - Rd 1, Pick 11 (1250) + Rd 2, Pick 42 = 1730 total Points
  • We may need to part with our 4th round pick (104 points) in order to recoup their second, but it might very well be worth it to grab two potential starters in the draft. Washington, to me, seems like the team most likely to make a deal with us. Hurney and Ron could get one of their gut feelings about a prospect and want to make a move to trade up to grab a QB, or even an OL. I think a trade up for a QB is the most likely scenario due to the team's desperate need for at the position and Dan Snyder's boner for making stupid decisions at the behest of those he has hired to make football decisions. 
• Minnesota - Rd 1, Pick 12 (1200) + Rd 2, Pick 46 (440) = 1640 Total Points
  • The Zim Zam got Flim Flammed so he is out, and with new coaches, new QBs tend to follow. Kirk cousins is not a bad QB, in fact he's quite good, but he also doesn't seem to play well enough to put his team over the hump to make it to the next level. They could attempt to trade Kirk and his fully guaranteed contract and acquire a new QB with the additional compensation they get from that trade. OR, they could be targeting Secondary help or a D-Lineman. We shall see.
• Cleveland - Rd 1, Pick 13 (1150) + Rd 2, Pick 4 (460) = 1610 Total Points
  • They're a bit further down in the round than I am comfortable with, but they could move up to draft a QB if they think Mayfield isn't the future. Other Potential positions of interest: Edge, both D and O Lines, and WR. Gun to my head, outside our division rivals I peg this as one of the more unlikely trades that could happen with us.
• Philadelphia - Rd 1 pick 15 (1050)/Rd 1 Pick 16 (1000) OR Rd 1 Pick 19* (*tentatively 875 but could change based on their playoff finish) OR Rd 1, pick 15/16 (1050/1000) + Rd 2, Pick 51 (390) + Rd 3, Pick 83 (175) = Values ranging anywhere between a 1615-2050 total points if they want a guy bad enough.
  • This trade scenario intrigues me the most. Philly has 3 first round picks this year thanks to the Colts and Dolphins, so If Philly falls in love with a prospect they feel won't fall to them in the middle of round 1, they could potentially JUMP up to 6, make us an offer we can't refuse, and they would STILL be completely fine in terms of draft capital. Of all the potential trade partners, Philly has the opportunity to help us out the most. I will be very interested in seeing who they are scouting this offseason.
• NO - Rd 1, Pick 18 (900) + Rd 2, Pick 49 (410) + Future 2023 2nd round pick (≈210) = 1520 Points OR Rd 1, Pick 18 (900) + Rd 4, Pick 111 (72) + Rd 1 2023 (≈500) = 1472 Points
  • Every argument against Atlanta tradign with us can be used against trading with NO, and add on top of that the Saints are significantly lower in the first round than the Falcons. NO Doesn't have an enticing enough offer without throwing in their future picks in either scenario, and those pick values are calculated by dividing the 16th pick's point value in each round by two (Rd 1, pick 16 in 2022 = 1000, Divided by 2 = 500). Future picks are a gamble so we don't really know if what we would get in return is really worth the risk. 

As things currently stand, we are probably near the top of everyone's lists of potential trade partners thanks to Scott's reputation of trading and our barren cupboard of additional picks. This post has gotten long enough so I won't math out every single scenario involving trading player + the 6th pick for other picks, but know this - We have options, and if the FO can make some actual smart decisions (obviously by keeping Rhule out of the war room), we could still draft more than once in the first two days of the draft this year.

TL;DR - I put in my two weeks notice so I have time to think about this stuff and wanted something relatively positive to think about in terms of this team doing something right for a change. We can trade some dudes for some picks or trade our #6 pick for more picks. Math is involved. Like Kevin Garnett - Anything is possible.

[45catfan]

I'd rather trade a current player than trade back in round 1.

[davos]

DJ Moore is our best way out here. We can reconfigure that crew. Hell, I’d try to trade him and Robbie. 

[Reebis21]

9 minutes ago, davos said:

DJ Moore is our best way out here.

Been saying this since last offseason. But some people around here want to act like he’s untouchable…

[Shocker]

Really nice job @Ricky Spanish

[Panthercougar68]

My argument against trading DJ is this.

Why trade young talent for younger unknown talent?

Robbie makes more sense than trading DJ.

If youre packaging DJ for a pick another proven player sure but just because you have the now 2nd round pick doesn’t mean it’s gonna equate to a good player. The draft is a funny thing you have to build through it but if you rely to much on it you’re team doesn’t go anywhere.

Edited January 16, 2022 by Panthercougar68

[SmokinwithWilly]

I trust Fitts to do the trading. I don't trust Rhule to set the target. If we do this poorly, it could set us back a couple of years, simply because it's going to take more than a single draft to undo the wreckage caused from Rhule's arrogance that he knows more than every other expert in the room. If Fitts and Morgan get to control the players taken and tell Rhule these are your guys, make it work, we could be ok, at least personnel wise. Coaching would still be severely lacking. 

Edited January 16, 2022 by SmokinwithWilly

[Toomers]

I stopped reading at Robbie Anderson and 2nd round-4th round. Sorry. 

[Ricky Spanish]

34 minutes ago, Toomers said:

I stopped reading at Robbie Anderson and 2nd round-4th round. Sorry. 

Then you missed the part where I said it was a crapshoot trading WRs when guys like Mohammad Sanu and Deandre Hopkins are both traded for a 2nd round pick when one isn't even in the stratosphere of the other, and then Randy Moss was traded for a 4th, who's better than both of them. 

Golden Tate went for a 3rd in his 30s. 

Anywhere between a 2nd and a 4th is completely within the realm of possibilities for damn near any starting Receiver in this league.

[Aussie Tank]

Maybe if Cleveland is really is done with Mayfield we get him and their first for our pick 

[Toomers]

2 hours ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Then you missed the part where I said it was a crapshoot trading WRs when guys like Mohammad Sanu and Deandre Hopkins are both traded for a 2nd round pick when one isn't even in the stratosphere of the other, and then Randy Moss was traded for a 4th, who's better than both of them. 

Golden Tate went for a 3rd in his 30s. 

Anywhere between a 2nd and a 4th is completely within the realm of possibilities for damn near any starting Receiver in this league.

So a team is going to pay 12.8M next year for a pain in the ass WR coming off his worst season, and give a draft pick for the privilege? Good Luck with that. 
 

And after reading the rest, everyone is overvalued. AJ Bouye is ridiculous. 

[tiger7_88]

Trade current players or trade down?  OK.

Trade future draft capital?  HORRIBLE idea.

My only fear is that the current coach/GM likely believes the 2nd option is their best bet.

[tiger7_88]

7 minutes ago, Toomers said:

So a team is going to pay 12.8M next year for a pain in the ass WR coming off his worst season, and give a draft pick for the privilege? Good Luck with that. 
 

And after reading the rest, everyone is overvalued. AJ Bouye is ridiculous. 

Yeah, its always funny when fans think they can trade their over-valued salary cap burdens to other teams... as if other teams are lining up to assume the burdens that idiot Carolina management has weighed themselves down with, lol.

[Fox007]

Yes I went ahead and pied it before reading it too