Kenny Pickett at 5/6

[mav1234]

8 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Name me a few??

tbf Cam was considered a one year wonder by many (his juco stuff was discounted initially).  Josh Allen had one decent season (and not even a great one). Murray had only one great year (really only 1 year as a starter, but still).   I'm sure there are others.

edit: but I agree that I don't think we should take him, fwiw.

Edited January 5, 2022 by mav1234

[AU-panther]

7 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Good point.. Every position has bust picks. 

But the question is .. What is the best way to avoid making a bust pick??

Pick the lesser prospect with less production in college and less talent at his position..

Or 

Pick the higher rated prospect (by all scouts) with years of college production and a day 1 starter . 

Nobody is going to think any of these QBs are a safer pick then some of the non-QBs in this draft.  That isn't the point.

QBs are almost never the safter pick, sooner or later you just have to gamble.  With that being said this might not be the year to gamble, or maybe by trading down you reduce the gamble somewhat by acquiring extra picks but people need to give up on this idea that a QB is going to be the BPA.

Unless you happen to have the 1st overall pick in a year there is a Luck or Lawrance type talent it just doesn't happen.

 

 

[AU-panther]

11 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

 

This. We need to go into next year with the mindset that its the year to fix the oline and 2023 is the year to get the QB. 

So lets not trade more picks away. Stick and pick or trade back for draft capital. 

So what happens when you improve the oline and you go 8-9 and you are picking 14th, and since its a better QB class all of the good QBs go in the top 10 and you end up picking a QB that you have rated lower than what you can get this year.

 

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

So what happens when you improve the oline and you go 8-9 and you are picking 14th, and since its a better QB class all of the good QBs go in the top 10 and you end up picking a QB that you have rated lower than what you can get this year.

 

Improving the oline with rhule coaching and darnold starting there is still no way we are not picking top 10

[BrianS]

While I understand why people see Pickett as a flash in the pan, and it may be a valid argument, you also have to consider that the same thing could be said of Joe Burrow or Mac Jones.

Evaluate each QB "as is".  I haven't watched much of Pickett, and just because of the Rhule links I want to hate him . . . but I can't.  He has good anticipation, he can progess across the whole field, he keeps his eyes downfield under pressure, has good functional (though not exceptional) arm strength.  He's a decent prospect.

I'd feel better if we drafted him after getting rid of Rhule.

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

So what happens when you improve the oline and you go 8-9 and you are picking 14th, and since its a better QB class all of the good QBs go in the top 10 and you end up picking a QB that you have rated lower than what you can get this year.

 

If Sam Darnold can help this bunch get 9 wins next season then hell has frozen over.  I may have to take back everything I said about him.  Getting 9 wins buys you an extension around BOA.  

[rayzor]

If Rhule is still here, does it matter?

[CRA]

I'm only cool with a QB at #6 if our HC isn't named Rhule. 

If Matt Rhule is the HC, we can't draft a QB at 6. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

I'm only cool with a QB at #6 if our HC isn't named Rhule. 

If Matt Rhule is the HC, we can't draft a QB at 6. 

That’s the thing.  If he drafts a qb he sure as hell isn’t going to sit him.  He is trying to save his job.  As bad as darnold is can you imagine a rookie behind this lunk of poo line?    

Edited January 5, 2022 by mrcompletely11

[AU-panther]

14 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Improving the oline with rhule coaching and darnold starting there is still no way we are not picking top 10

maybe, maybe not

First of all there is no guarentee that Darnold will be starting, maybe they bring in someone else.

Also look at the dolphins in 2019, they went out of their way to tank for Tua, terrible roster and they still ended picking 5th, turned out Tua fell to them anyway, but the point is you can't always guarntee that you will have a top pick.

If we do decide to go for a QB in 2023 then we probably need to to commit to being bad and maybe trade one or two of players for picks, such as Moore or Burns.

 

[WOW!!]

18 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

tbf Cam was considered a one year wonder by many (his juco stuff was discounted initially).  Josh Allen had one decent season (and not even a great one). Murray had only one great year (really only 1 year as a starter, but still).   I'm sure there are others.

edit: but I agree that I don't think we should take him, fwiw.

1. Cam .. Was productive at Blinn.. And a national championship..

2. Josh Allen .. Younger way more physical talent and 2 years of production.. He had a good year and a down year when he lost his surrounding cast.. Not the same situation 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

3. Kyler Murray- Younger way more talented only got 1 year to start.. And special situation was he got drafted by his college coach.. 

The most comparable situation is Burrows.. And again his situation isn't 1 the works out for the most part..

So the question is again .. Is Pickett really a prospect worth taking a risk strategy on that rarely works out..

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

maybe, maybe not

First of all there is no guarentee that Darnold will be starting, maybe they bring in someone else.

Also look at the dolphins in 2019, they went out of their way to tank for Tua, terrible roster and they still ended picking 5th, turned out Tua fell to them anyway, but the point is you can't always guarntee that you will have a top pick.

If we do decide to go for a QB in 2023 then we probably need to to commit to being bad and maybe trade one or two of players for picks, such as Moore or Burns.

 

There is no maybe not.  Look at rhules draft picks and look at darnold s.   They are not going to blow more money on another vet deal.  I would bet anything we are either rolling darnold or a rookie out there next season 

 

 

as to the fins they have a good coach. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by mrcompletely11

[Pejorative Miscreant]

A rookie Kenny Picket behind this OL = Sam Darnold behind this OL. 

Don't get me wrong, I think Pickett can be a good player at the next level but I don't see him being able to flourish here with what is currently in place. 

[ForJimmy]

44 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Since 2015 (the only year I started from) tackles selected from the top half of the draft rarely bust.  Most at the basic level are productive starters.  Some are pro bowl and a few are all pro.  You can look it up yourself.   Top rated tackles are as good as gold

A productive starter at pick 6 isn’t a good thing, plus your sample size is going to be very small. You have 6 years with only the top half and only OL with the jury being open somewhat on these past two years. If Slater gets injured and can’t bounce back he will be considered a bust (for example) is Bectum in NYJ considers a bust with his injuries and where he was drafted? 
 

https://theriotreport.com/bust-alert-choose-wisely-when-drafting-an-offensive-lineman/

There is an article the Riot write about drafting OL and how it can still be a risk from 2019.