Kenny Pickett at 5/6

[Brooklyn 3.0]

First time in thread!

NO to Pickett or any QB. OL first pick please, maybe with the second pick too. FA another. Sam is straight trash ... but with a better OL he'll advance to "meh" stage. A year of meh, then we can get a better QB.

[joemac]

2 hours ago, davos said:

I'm asking this out of sheer curiosity, not so much promoting him as our target QB. I know people are already attaching Rhule to Pickett, which is unfortunate because Rhule sucks.  But if we step back for a moment and just look at Pickett and his season, what could we be getting?  

I get many to most want to establish the OL first and foremost (I don't disagree) and without a 2nd or 3rd rounder, it will be even more difficult.  As things stand, we're picking 5/6 and then 105.  It sucks.  Hoping Henderson can work out and we can basically consider him a draft pick but the 2nd for Darnold hurts combined with it.

The trade down discussion is easy to throw out but I think it will be difficult in our spot.  Maybe we could do something with a Pittsburgh or Denver and get a OL+Corral/Ridder type combo but there's a lot of extenuating factors.  

So my questions aside from the OL situation and Matt Rhule as our coach (for now):

Is Pickett a viable #6 Overall pick? Corral? Anyone else?

And second: How would you go about building the line without trading down and landing a QB at #5/6?

PROFILE:

6'3 220 LBS

Hometown: Oakhurst, NJ

23 years old

40-Time ~4.77-4.8 range

CAREER STATS (Top 2021 to bottom 2017):

CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	RTG
334	497	67.2	4,319	8.7	42	7	67	165.3
203	332	61.1	2,408	7.3	13	9	75	129.6
289	469	61.6	3,098	6.6	13	9	96	122.4
180	310	58.1	1,969	6.4	12	6	78	120.3
39	66	59.1	509	7.7	1	1	74	125.8

WRITE-UPS

 Per the Draft Network (tried to fix this formatting/pardon the large font):

 

HIGHLIGHTS:

 

My conclusion is that if we select him, I won't be disappointed.  I will no doubt wonder how the hell we build a line for him if Rhule is here and pray he doesn't get ruined.  I just see a lot more potential than plenty of guys taken around the same area.  He had a Burrow type ascent and I don't see why he couldn't come in at a decent level.  Looks a hell of a lot more ready than Zach Wilson for example, I don't see a ton of question marks.  Just seems like a solid QB I don't think we should brush off because of Rhule's history with him or the fact that we have a dogsh*t OL situation.  

 

Again I prefer an OL first approach, but if he's the pick, there will still be a lot to be excited about.

 

Cheers. 

Honestly Jordan Addison jumps off the highlights more than Pickett does.  That being said, I would not be too upset if we got him.  He seems like he could be a good starting QB in the NFL.  Reminds me of Herbert kinda.  We still need o-line help before we consider drafting a guy in Round 1. 

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, mav1234 said:

tbf Pickett has a pretty clear progression too.  His yards per game and TD% increased pretty much every year and if last season had been 12-13 game we'd be looking at ~3500 yards and ~18-20 passing TDs, plus the rushing TDs he had (he had 8 in 9 games last year)... so while not a great season it is a step up from the previous year by quite a bit.

Lance and Herbert were 100% not considered surefire prospects tho.  They were both risks.

I don't recall Watson well enough to say.

Wilson was the 2nd overall and would have gone first probably in a non-Lawrence draft.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kenny-pickett-1.html  

So ppl can see this and quantify what you said is progression..

From his freshman season..

12 -6 Td to ints

13-9

13-9 

Then the big season.. And Unlike other QB you named he was the starting QB most of those seasons.. 

Definition of 1 year wonder.. 4 years of playing time and opportunity only 1 year of elite to good play..

2 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

tbf Pickett has a pretty clear progression too.  His yards per game and TD% increased pretty much every year and if last season had been 12-13 game we'd be looking at ~3500 yards and ~18-20 passing TDs, plus the rushing TDs he had (he had 8 in 9 games last year)... so while not a great season it is a step up from the previous year by quite a bit.

Lance and Herbert were 100% not considered surefire prospects tho.  They were both risks.

I don't recall Watson well enough to say.

Wilson was the 2nd overall and would have gone first probably in a non-Lawrence draft.

The question was I guess highly rated QB who rated higher then other position but weren't number 1 overall picks..

But if you want to talk about.. All these guys were better prospect then Pickett.. All are rated higher as prospect then Pickett.. All had better College production then Pickett all are safer prospects then Pickett..

Pickett at this point is the tallest midget.. He might be the best prospect in a bad QB draft..  And that isn't even Consensus.. That should be a scary pick..

[AU-panther]

10 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert..

 Weren't top overall picks in Good QB draft that were rated higher then other prospects in other position..

In all those examples there were hither rated players available that were statistically safer.

Sewell was probably rated higher than Wilson on most boards, maybe Chase and Pitts also. At the very least any logical person would consider them safter picks.

 Derrick Brown was rated higher than Herbert and was considered safter by most also. 

Watson wasn't even drafted in the top 10 so that tells you everything you need to know.  If teams had him rated that high he would have never fallen out of the top 10 being a QB.

They might have been rated high but this idea that they were BPA is naive.  Fact is QBs are almost always inherently a greater risk then a non QB that is also available at that same position.  This is too be expected because its a much more important position.

 

 

 

 

 

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, joemac said:

Honestly Jordan Addison jumps off the highlights more than Pickett does.  That being said, I would not be too upset if we got him.  He seems like he could be a good starting QB in the NFL.  Reminds me of Herbert kinda.  We still need o-line help before we consider drafting a guy in Round 1. 

Herbert is bigger stronger faster. With a elite arm.. Don't let youtube fool you. Please.

[mrcompletely11]

11 minutes ago, slumdogmillionaire said:

Trade down and draft this guy.   No one will work harder and he has the talent.  Get some picks back by trading down.   I wouldn’t draft any QB at 5 or 6 this year especially with the holes on the offensive line.   
 

This pic is from my bar Graham St after the panthers last home game.  Sam came to the game with Drake Maye and others and then brought some of the offensive line to Graham.   Sam was a big Panthers fan I know back in the day….not sure anymore but that doesn’t matter.    I’m friends with him and for his sake I want him to go to Steelers or somewhere with a better coach and offensive line. 

how tall r u

[davos]

58 minutes ago, WOW!! said:

I'm doing the same thing.. And most scout has this as a down QB draft.. Most scouts say the same thing about all the QB in this draft..

"I wouldn't draft him high but "desperate QB teams will probably pick him" .. This statement is a red flag .

Read between the lines.. Look at the prospect and compare him to others.. Compare the class.. He isn't a good prospect unless you're desperate..

Overall, yes it's not an ideal QB draft but that doesn't mean a good one doesn't exist.  And it's a hell of a lot better than 2019.  I guess we're just not seeing him in the same light then, to each his own.  

I would have considered him in discussion with Herbert going into the 2020 draft rather than in the Love/Eason tier.  

I mean, mapping out the last 4 drafts, if we're just looking at prospects (not what they've done in the NFL), I'd consider behind Burrow & Trevor but ahead of a lot of other guys like Wilson (not a fan), Mac, Fields, Love, and dare I say, possibly Tua.  More in that Herbert/Allen tier.  Question marks due to unknowns from college but could easily be a hit.  Just depends but I like everything I've seen with what was presented in 2021.

His arm isn't Carson Strong level, but he just has a lot that you look for.  I dunno, we'll see.  It's all a process.

Edited January 5, 2022 by davos

[slumdogmillionaire]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

how tall r u

6ft 

[Waldo]

1 minute ago, FuFuLamePoo said:

I could definitely see it being a Rosen -> Murray situation. Would be deeply unfair for the QB chosen here. Rhule will be gone by Thanksgiving imo

Just sounds like a wasted pick to me. That scenario in this draft class sounds inevitable with this crew. They chose wrong twice, no idea why anyone expects different at this point. I guess the 'broken clock is right twice a day' approach can work.

Well whatever QB they go with, they probably get over drafted so they should make a nice check but yeah, that is really flawed and stinks for them. 

[mrcompletely11]

31 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

2015? that's convenient

2014 Greg Robinson

2013 Luke Joekel

2012 Matt Kalil

I do agree they are a lot safer than QBs, but lets don't act like they are sure things

 

Not convinent I just stopped yesterday at 2015.  I figured 6 years of data is enough to draw a conclusion.

 

Also Robinson is a clear bust but Joekel and Kalil (pre injury) were competent starters.  Were they worth their draft pick, probably not but they were not a liability on the field.  But from where we are picking the bust rate is minuscule compared to qbs

 

Reading about joekel he was a career LT but the jags moved him to RT where he struggled.  Then moved to LT was doing well then got hurt.  IN the 2014/15 seasons when he was healthy he had a rating of 68 and 70.  Not a total bust but not worth #2 overall

Edited January 5, 2022 by mrcompletely11

[mav1234]

Just now, WOW!! said:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kenny-pickett-1.html  

So ppl can see this and quantify what you said is progression..

From his freshman season..

12 -6 Td to ints

13-9

13-9 

Then the big season.. And Unlike other QB you named he was the starting QB most of those seasons.. 

Definition of 1 year wonder.. 4 years of playing time and opportunity only 1 year of elite to good play..

The question was I guess highly rated QB who rated higher then other position but weren't number 1 overall picks..

But if you want to talk about.. All these guys were better prospect then Pickett.. All are rated higher as prospect then Pickett.. All had better College production then Pickett all are safer prospects then Pickett..

Pickett at this point is the tallest midget.. He might be the best prospect in a bad QB draft..  And that isn't even Consensus.. That should be a scary pick..

are you really going to act like 2020 was a normal college sports season and played the same number of games? lol... 

He also had 8 TDs in 2020 on the ground btw. I know as Panthers fans we like to act like rushing TDs are stolen from the poor RBs for some reason, but it is important to note he had 21 total TDs in 9 games in 2020, up from 15 total in 12 games the previous year. He also increased his per game yardage total.  

I'm not saying he had multiple amazing years, but you are the one that defined an 11 game, 1800 yard, 21 total TD as a productive season, not me. If that is the case, you have to admit Pickett has had 2 productive seasons too, lol.

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, slumdogmillionaire said:

6ft 

maybe its the angle but he looks a bit shorter than you

[davos]

Just wanna say, loving the discussion.  It's interesting to see how he compares with past drafts.  Think Corral & Strong would also be interesting to compare to the 2021 and 2020 classes with threads of their own.  

I just don't think this is as bad of a class as it seems. SUre plenty of question marks with all of them but in looking back, I just don't see this as some low end year.  That would be 2019 or 2015. Or dare I say 2017 if people remember how Watson and Mahomes were talked about.  

The consensus guys at the end of last year in Howell and Rattler had really wild years and it's just thrown things for a loop, with another out of nowhere ascender in Pickett and the upside guys like Corral, then Ridder & Willis, it makes it a toss up but doesn't mean someone in this crop doesn't rise in the NFL.  And then you've got more of a sure things with injury questions in Strong who I could see lighting it TF up for the Steelers or NO.   

[slumdogmillionaire]

4 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

maybe its the angle but he looks a bit shorter than you

Drake is tall.