Should we draft IOWA center Tyler Linderbaum in the 1st round or go with a LT?

[AU-panther]

17 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Are you saying LT's bust at the same rate as qb's?   Your wording is a bit confusing there.  Top of the draft tackles are pretty safe bets on the whole

what percentage would you say? and are we talking starters or all-pro level?

 

[SCO96]

9 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

People need to consider positional value also, not just how much value they add to winning but their cost relative to replacing them in free agency.

Here is why center is riskier than a LT:

#6 pick is going to get a 4 year contract worth about $8m a year.

The 12th highest center in the league makes less than that.  The 5th highest only makes $10.8m.

So basically, if you draft a center that high he better turn out to be one of the best centers in the league or you are losing value, and even if is a top-5 center you still aren't gaining as much value as a player at a different position.

In comparison:

The fifth highest LT in the league makes $18m a year, the 10th makes $14.9m.

The 20th highest makes $8m. 

Now of course salary isn't always equal to production, but you can make the argument that if you draft a LT and if he just turns out to be average it's still a good deal relative to his rookie pay scale.

You can actually miss on more high value positions in the draft and still come out ahead of a team that hits on a higher percentage of low value positions.

 

 

 

 

Not saying I fully agree with your point of view about taking a center at #6, but good job laying out your case. I think that the economic aspect is something that needs to be considered especially with highly drafted O-lineman.

If we had taken Creed Humphrey at center last year when we had the opportunity we could focus solely on the LT spot. He went to the Chiefs @ #63. Even with two trade downs in round 2 we could have nabbed him at 58. Instead we took a WR .

Edited January 4, 2022 by SCO96

[Panther53521]

I would only draft a Center that early, if we had 2 good guard …. Which we don’t 

[Jackie Lee]

1 hour ago, CarolinaNCSU said:

I pretty much agree and it would be the smart thing to do.  I just don't think Fitts and his trade happy ass will. He's going to wear some of the stink of the Darnold deal and feel the need to get picks and say "look I put a band-aid on it". 

I'd rather have a quarter than two dimes and a nickel. Just don't think Fitts rolls like that. 

In mock draft simulators at least, you can trade back 3-5 spots and pick up at least a 2nd and another 4th to use to move back up to the 3rd. Doing mocks with just the 1st and then nothing til round 4 is looking really ugly in this draft. I'd rather move back a little bit, grab the C and take the best guard in round 2, there should be a few guys def better than Miller/Jordan

[Harbingers]

Get him. We need a permanent center fix. 

[AU-panther]

1 minute ago, SCO96 said:

Not saying I fully agree with your point of view about taking a center at #6, but good job laying out your case. I think that the economic aspect is something that needs to be considered especially with highly drafted O-lineman.

If we had taken Creed Humphrey at center last year when we had the opportunity we could focus solely on the LT spot. He went to the Chiefs @ #63. Even we two trade downs in round 2 we could have nabbed him at 58. Instead we took a WR .

Once you get past the first round the positional value becomes less important because the salaries are so much close to league minimum.

People need to realize that football moves don't happen in a vacuum.

You spend $8m to draft an above average center then you have to spend about $15m to get an above average LT (if one even hits the market).

or 

You spend $8m to draft an above average LT then you can spend $15m on a free agent center, which would actually make them the highest paid center in the league (highest is 13.5m).

The same thing is true with positions like RB.  If you draft one that high he has to be one of the best players in the league or he starts out overpaid.

For the most part free agents are paid relative to their production.  Think of dollars=production.  A $10m player gives you $10m dollars of production.  In that regard all teams are equal because of salary cap.

The one place teams can really get ahead of another team is through the draft because of the fixed contracts.  If you draft a $20m player on a $2m contract you have gained value over another team.

Of course there are always exceptions, but the principle is true.  It's the reason the Saints stayed competitive during the so called "cap hell" years.  They had one of the best drafts of all times and basically had several high production players on cheap rookie deals, that make up for their reduced cap space.

If I did decide to draft the center I would feel a lot better about it with a trade down.  That extra pick gives you a chance to make up for some of the value lost by drafting a lower value position to start with.

 

 

 

 

 

[OneBadCat]

This is why we should have started BC at LT all year to see how he really looks. If he ends up being good he could get buried by a top tackle we can't afford to miss in the draft. The interior line is so damn bad, thats a bigger fix.

[mrcompletely11]

33 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

what percentage would you say? and are we talking starters or all-pro level?

 

Not sure of percentage but scroll through the top half of the drafts starting with 2015 and you see very few outright busts.  You see a ton of good starters, a couple of all pros and a lot of pro bowl level lineman.

 

On the flip side you see a lot of bad qbs.  So yeah high end tackles appear to hit at a way more substantial rate then qbs

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

No, I said spotty. I think there’s a really good chance you can get the 1st/2nd/3rd best Cs and Gs in the early 2nd (we’ll likely be there again next year) in every draft. QB and LT is spotty in that there isn’t always a franchise LT or QB early in the first. Some years are just bad so you don’t pick a C if the top of the draft class does have really good LTs or QBs. LTs appear to be there this year and hopefully still do after the combine.

Gotcha.  But on the whole from what I have seen, when its said to be a good class with good top tier talent it really does seem to work out that way and that talent hits.  Like the prior few years

[SmokinwithWilly]

I'd like Linderbaum but not at the expense of a franchise LT. If a franchise LT that passes all the checklists is there, you have to take him. The positional value is just too great not to. I've had a chance to watch more of Linderbaum than the tackles from this year so far, and obviously no combine yet. I pay more attention to footwork than anything else. Balance is everything, especially for the big guys. Footwork can tell you a whole lot. That's how I could tell right away at the combine Little was going to be a bust. His footwork was atrocious.

[mickeye76]

As much as it may hurt to do so.  We need to trade down.  Which means passing on top tier talent.   But we have multiple holes on the oline.  An example of a trade that could benefit us.  

Las Vegas Raiders move up.  

6 for 22, 53 and 84.  

22. Ikem Ekwonu NC St.  

53. Zion Johnson Boston College

84.  Jarrett Patterson Notre Dame

BC, Zion, Jp, Ikem, Moton.

Now I get the that guy won't be there argument.  That's why I'm gonna rank the guards and centers.

OG - 1. Ikem 1b.  Green 2. Wanya Morris 

2b. Zion Johnson 3. Thayer Munford. 3b. Nick Broeker. 

OC - 1. Tyler 2. Emil Ekiyor 3. Jarrett 4.  James Empey.  

I am not looking real hard at LT because I'm starting to believe in BC.  If given a legit partner on the left side and a full off season at his preferred position he could improve greatly.  

Edited January 4, 2022 by mickeye76
Wrong school.

[Mistuh Jones]

2 hours ago, BlitzMonster said:

I wouldn't hate having Linderbaum on the roster.  But you can usually get a good starting C in round 2 or 3. 

Good to great LT are far more rare and hard to find.  That's why it should be the Panthers' choice at #6.   

No screwing around let's go get the MF center

[KillerKat]

Center is the biggest problem on the line for us right now. I would be Ok with either, but it wouldn't make sense to have 1 position with the best talent on the line while the rest suffer. Right now BC is OK at LT, so we need a new center. Besides, if we do go LT and move BC to LG, it will hurt BC if we have a bad center again so it's just wasting BC's talents yet again. Go ahead and get your center so that everyone else can focus on their job and not have to cover someone else's man because a center has just caused a chain reaction due to the fact he is terrible.

Edited January 4, 2022 by KillerKat

[Clicheking]

We 100% need to go O-line so with that said let's draft Tyler because we can trade back and get him. Because one pick in the top three rounds won't cut it. Whatever pick we get, let's use that to draft OL as well. We MUST walk out of these draft with two starters on OL.