Observer article by Ellis Williams. How the Panthers got here

[raleigh-panther]

1)My interpretation of the Bottom line, Rhule and Fitterer overestimated their team and made decisions thinking, quoting George Allen that ‘the future is now’    They failed with Darnold and they failed with their own self evaluation and here we are.  We all know this 

2) if I am Tepper and I look at this objectively, I get a new coach and GM  dead serious  these are egregious errors 

3) the coach and GM are out of their league  how can the same coach a d GM that got the La there in this position, be trusted to right the franchise,   I don’t see it 

http://Analysis: Panthers went all-in on winning now with nothing to show for it. At what cost? https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article256286917.html

Analysis: Panthers went all-in on winning now with nothing to show for it. At what cost?

 

BY ELLIS L. WILLIAMS

[email protected]

45 minutes ago

The bye week is a time of self-reflection and introspection. Teams usually delegate resources to internal scouting, searching for answers that explain their on-field strengths and weaknesses. 

The Carolina Panthers (5-7) have plenty of the latter entering their Week 13 bye. They rank 29th in overall offensive DVOA, 31st in passing and 21st in rushing. Defensively, they dropped outside the top five in DVOA and are trending in the wrong direction. (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.) 

The Panthers have allowed 60 points over the past two weeks in losses to Washington and Miami. Both games held important playoff implications as Washington currently holds the final wild-card spot. Carolina has just a 6% chance of making the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight. 

How did the Panthers get here? That is a question Carolina should attack this week. It’s a challenging proposition that coach Matt Rhule and general manager Scott Fitterer must answer realistically. 

During the offseason, rookie and free agent evaluations dominate most football conversations. There is such a hyper focus on what new players can be brought in and how those external additions can improve a team’s situation. 

However, more challenging and equally important is accurate internal scouting. A team cannot adequately forecast its range outcomes until it fully understands its own roster. 

Confirmation biases and wishful thinking should be a decision maker’s sworn enemy. Instead, such practices are to blame for the Panthers’ uncomfortable situation. Losers of seven of their last nine, they are heading closer toward a top-10 pick than a playoff berth. Trading for quarterback Sam Darnold and cornerback C.J. Henderson cost them all but one top-100 selection in 2022. 

They weren’t a Stephon Gilmore away from breaking their three-year playoff drought, either. Let’s unpack how the Panthers miscalculated their situation and project where they can go from here. 

Not ready to “win now” 

The Panthers’ 3-0 start feels like it happened another season ago.

Venture back to those days and remember the energy surrounding Carolina. They led the NFC South entering Week 4 and made two splash trades over two weeks, signaling they were ready to win.

Fitterer acquired Henderson and a fifth-round pick from Jacksonville for tight end Dan Arnold and a third-round pick. Fitterer took an opportunity to fill a hole left by cornerback Jaycee Horn — who broke his right foot — while also building toward the future as Henderson was the No. 9 pick in the 2020 draft. 

Then Gilmore, a former defensive player of the year, became available. Fitterer and Rhule pounced on another opportunity to land a talented defensive back. By trading a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Patriots and agreeing to pay his remaining $5.8 million contract, the Panthers told their locker room, fan base and the rest of the league they believed they were a playoff contender. 

“This is the way Scott’s wired, and I don’t want to sit around and wait to win,” Rhule said after the Gilmore trade. “We have a good team right now and we’re trying to become a great team.”

Fitterer added, “C.J. is the future. Stephon is to win now.” 

Panthers players agreed. Cornerback Donte Jackson said, “they’re confident we can win right now.” Defensive tackle DaQuan Jones said he thinks everyone in the building believes that’s the case.

Quarterback Sam Darnold bought in, too. “We’re ready to win now,” he said. “I think that’s the biggest thing. We’re all aware, we can win games, and we’re capable of doing that. So that’s really the message it sends.”

 

Gilmore wasn’t eligible to play until Week 7 because he started the season on the PUP list with an injured quadriceps. He made his Carolina debut in Week 8, helping smother Atlanta, 19-13. 

But in between acquiring Gilmore and his first start, the Panthers lost three straight games. Minor concerns during their first three victories started showing as long-term problems. Carolina struggled to stop the run or protect the quarterback, trends that persist. 

Darnold injured his shoulder in Week 9, landing him on injured reserve and Cam Newton returned to save a season in disarray. The Panthers paid him $4.5 million, plus $187,500 per game activation. Assuming Newton stays healthy and Carolina doesn’t make the playoffs, he’ll make $6 million for eight games. 

The Panthers weren’t a win-now team. Instead, they were covering up their inefficiencies with a soft schedule. The Jets and Texans will each have top-five picks; New Orleans is having a down year and had seven starters missing that week; Atlanta is rebuilding and the Cardinals played Carolina without Pro Bowlers Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. 

What’s next?

Carolina exemplifies the costly ramifications of compounding a problem. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t enough, so Fitterer and Rhule acquired Darnold for three draft picks — a 2021 sixth-round selection, and a second and fourth-rounder in 2022. 

Those mid-round picks would help bolster either their defensive or offensive lines this offseason, but they were wasted. It’s unclear whether Darnold will be back in Charlotte next season. The Panthers owe him $18 million for picking up his 2022 fifth-year option in May. 

Misjudging their talent has pinned the Panthers into a corner. It started with Bridgewater, turned them to Darnold and back to Newton. While they couldn’t figure out their quarterback, wide receiver Robby Anderson signed a two-year, $29.5 million contract, including a $11.5 million signing bonus.

Anderson is on pace for career lows in receptions and receiving yards. His Pro Football Focus grade of 54 ranks 192nd among 200 qualified receivers. Internally, it sounds like Anderson’s seismic production drop stems more from the Panthers’ quarterback and offensive line issues than his own regression. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady isn’t helping, either, with simplistic schemes and unimaginative offense.

There aren’t many valid excuses for how the Panthers arrived at this stagnant place. Sure, they are playing without All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who was placed on injured reserve for a second time following an ankle injury he suffered last week. But star running backs Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Nick Chubb (Browns), Aaron Jones (Packers), Derrick Henry (Titans), Alvin Kamara (Saints) have all missed extended time and their respective offenses aren’t crumbling. 

Unless the Panthers win at least four of their next five games, their season is likely over. The offseason brings even more questions. Lucrative extensions await defensive end Brian Burns and receiver DJ Moore. Edge rusher Haason Reddick will earn a massive payday from either Carolina or elsewhere. At cornerback, Jackson and Gilmore will both be looking for new deals. 

Once again, quarterback remains a mystery. The Panthers could bring Newton back or finally select one in the first round. 

From quarterback to an offensive line rebuild and defensive free agents, the Panthers have plenty to figure out. Hopefully, their coaches are using the bye week to reflect and solve their self-inflicted issues.

Panthers 2022 NFL draft picks

• First round (1)
• Fourth round (1)
• Fifth round (2)
• Sixth round (2)
• Seventh round (

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by raleigh-panther
Paste issues

[mrcompletely11]

in closing:  We are fuged

[joemac]

YIKES

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Tepper should be in damage control mode at this point.

Rhule and company are out of their depth and need to be shown the door.

[Toomers]

This entire article has been written by a few on here from day one of this regime.  Confirmation Bias has been the key to believing any move was more than a “win-now” since the day Teddy was signed. Gilmore is one of the  least of any of those issues. 
 

    Negative trolling just seems to turn into fact around here awfully fast. 

   

[raleigh-panther]

46 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

in closing:  We are fuged

Pretty much 

I just can’t fathom giving the conductors of this train wreck the keys to do it again 

 

[frankw]

Turns out maybe it wasn't such a hot idea to give full control to a college coach with only one season of low level NFL coaching experience.

Edited December 3, 2021 by frankw

[raleigh-panther]

3 minutes ago, Toomers said:

This entire article has been written by a few on here from day one of this regime.  Confirmation Bias has been the key to believing any move was more than a “win-now” since the day Teddy was signed. Gilmore is one of the  least of any of those issues. 
 

    Negative trolling just seems to turn into fact around here awfully fast. 

   

It’s fact.   You can call it negative.  You can call it objective. You can call it an honest assessment. 

No matter what the label is, the facts of the moves happened. The impact of the moves failed in dramatic fashion   

Edited December 3, 2021 by raleigh-panther

[hepcat]

This regime but the franchise in a huge f*cking mess and they should all be fired. 

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, raleigh-panther said:

1)My interpretation of the Bottom line, Rhule and Fitterer overestimated their team and made decisions thinking, quoting George Allen that ‘the future is now’    They failed with Darnold and they failed with their own self evaluation and here we are.  We all know this 

2) if I am Tepper and I look at this objectively, I get a new coach and GM  dead serious  these are egregious errors 

3) the coach and GM are out of their league  how can the same coach a d GM that got the La there in this position, be trusted to right the franchise,   I don’t see it.

New coach? Ja!

New GM? Nein

Fitterer was infinitely more qualified for his job than Rhule was for his, but Tepper stupidly gave Rhule full control.

Im not in favor of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially since it'd mean Tepper picking both replacements.

Fire Rhule, fix the power structure and let Fitterer and Morgan find the next coach.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[BrianS]

We're definitely in a bad spot, but truthfully, the only "win now" move was Gilmore, and even that one has some upside in that if we lose Gilmore, we'll get the pick back as a compensatory.  Darnold was a calculated risk that failed, though I still think the price was too high.  If you look at Henderson as a third round pick, he's in a good spot.

Even if we let both Jackson and Gilmore walk, the top of our CB room next year is Horn, Henderson and Bouye.  And we get picks back for Jackson and Gilmore.  The sky isn't falling, but it's definitely cloudy.

[hepcat]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

New coach? Ja!

New GM? Nein

Fitterer was infinitely more qualified for his job than Rhule was for his, but Tepper stupidly gave Rhule full control.

Im not in favor of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially since it'd mean Tepper picking both replacements.

Fire Rhule, fox the structure and let Fitterer and Morgan find the next coach.

I only agree with this sentiment like 60%. On the surface Fitterer looks like a good GM but he was hired to be essentially a yes-man to Rhule and Tepper. Or does he step up into his own after Rhule is gone?

[Mr. Scot]

On a related note, this new Observer writer (Williams) is really good 

[PghPanther]

The organization became enamored with glitter of skilled positions on both sides of the ball and forgot about building a foundation for the house with an offensive line.......