Where Are We Really -- One Season and 7 Games Into It...

[CRA]

 

[CashNewton22]

People aren’t going to like this post because it’s too realistic a look into our team. 

[Louie]

The Panthers could have drafted a couple O linemen instead of Horn, Marshal and Tremble. What about Slater OT and a decent rookie guard or a center. How much better would our Offensive line be? Probably a good bit! 

[grimesgoat]

4 hours ago, SetfreexX said:

TL;DR -- We are on schedule

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The 3-0 start had us all hype, happy, excited, and to me that is what has made the last 4 games more painful than they should be. However, most seasoned and realistic fans could see in the off-season / post Darnold trade / post draft that we were probably a 6-9 win team. We were coming off a 5-11 year and had just traded for a HUGE question mark at QB.

With that in mind let's look at some changes considering we are 1 season and 7 games into the rebuild...more so on the offense...

QB - 

Teddy Bridgewater >>> Sam Darnold -- This is a net negative IMO, Darnold has more talent, but he's a worse QB (TBF and I'm not a TB fan / apologist -- we probably beat PHI / MIN / NYG with Teddy - Darnold has proven to be inept at reading coverage)

HB - 

CMC & Mike Davis >>> CMC is on IR, Chuba is not matching Davis' production but I can give him a bit of a pass as a 4th round rookie behind a bad OL who has still flashed on occasion; he just needs to work on his brick hands at the moment, as big as Freeman is, his pass pro is lacking but he is a competent runner.

FB - 

Alex Armah >>> Giovanni Ricci -- Armah is the better pure blocker, Ricci is more versatile -- We should have kept Armah

WR - 

DJ, Robbie, Curtis >>> DJ, Robbie - DJ has been for the most part what we were expecting, Robbie is ''trying'' too hard to live up to the money by pressing to make plays, and Darnold's terribly inconsistent accuracy isn't helping his receivers. TMJ due to Darnold's ineptitude has been limited & recently concussed, and Shi Smith just played his first 2 games of the season in weeks 6 & 7.

TE - 

Ian Thomas, Chris Manhertz >>> Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble -- I think we're clearly better here, Tommy already has a couple TD's on his young resume, his athleticism shows regularly. To me Joe Brady needs to call more plays to get them involved with CMC absent, and the attention on DJ / Robbie. Darnold needs to look to them more. 

OL - 

Okung (Trent Scott), Schofield (Chris Sneed) >> With Erving, & Elflein you could almost call it a wash due to how many games Okung missed, with Elflein out guys like Daley have been exposed so much so that we are down to the 3rd stringer in Jordan, Miller seems worse than last year as most of us were okay with his return. Paradis, and Moton are the only consistency we have, Christensen is a rookie and learning, and Brown is now on IR. Overall I think in time this will come together, we just have to improve the Guard play on both sides. 

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I think it is safe to say the defense is much better, a complete turnaround, gone is the 3-3-5 and in comes a more traditional 3-4 alignment from our base, and most of the guys from last year remain (Burns / Brown / Gross-Matos / Shaq / Jackson / Chinn / Burris)

FA Additions:

DaQuan Jones, Morgan Fox, Haason Reddick

Trade acquisitions:

Stephon Gilmore, C.J. Henderson

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I know this 4 game skid, and potentially one longer than that are beyond frustrating and take most of us back to 2007 - 2010, where we faltered around a bit back as we attempted to replace Delhomme -- Moore, Clausen, Pike, St. Pierre to now attempting to replace Cam with Bridgewater, and Darnold to date. 

I write this to say, honestly what was been done with the defense through a season was / is impressive, and with an active body at GM, it is likely we will continue to improve the roster as free agency and cap space for the first time in a long time will afford us some opportunities to upgrade the offensive line in free agency with more proven targets.

I know a lot of you are concerned with our draft capitol, but we still have:

1st / 4th (HOU) / 5th (JAX) / 5th / 6th / 6th (LVR) / 7th (TEN)

That is still 7 total picks, it is still to be determined if we stand pat with our first or look to trade down (my money is on trading down), if so we will make up for missing picks, but do not forget that ''we ADDED 11 rookies this past draft'', so we are not hurting in the youth / depth departments aside from a couple positions, the likely-hood of a rookie 2nd or 3rd rounder starting is low; they're usually contributors year one aside from the gems that fall (like Chinn). 

Point is, we have options, and we have a GM that seems capable, this was never supposed to be ''our season / time''. The expectation was always some steady improvement in S1 / S2 of the rebuild with us being in position to make some credible noise in S3. 

I do believe we are on pace for that, so keep your heads up, and #KeepPounding 

I appreciated the optimism and I believe they are on schedule for the rebuild.  They got a little ahead of themselves out of the gate, but if you look at the roster and who is signed for 2022, there is room for optimism.

I don't think we will be very active in Free Agency.  They will use most of their 44m is cap to sign their own guys - Gilmore, Luvu, Burris, maybe Reddick and Jones.  Jackson and Carter will probably walk and we'll pick up some comp picks.

Almost everyone that's decent on offense is signed through 2022.  DJ will be extended and Paradis will be gone.  I believe that's why Erving and Elflein were given longer contracts - they knew this would take more than 2 drafts to fix.

They will try to turn their 1 and 6 into 2 and 3 and use them on a C and LB.  Look for an OG in the 4th, a some combination of DT, T, TE, RB, K over the rest of the draft.  This would complete the roster turnover into Rhule's vision.

QB is still an issue, but we really don't know how good or bad darnold is with this crappy OL and without CMC.  We may look to upgrade QB in free agency, but I think they will just bring in some grizzled vet like Flacco or Foles for competition.  The goal being to make a wildcard.

I think 2023 will be when the seat for Rhule and company may begin to heat.

7 wins in 2021.  10 wins in 2022.  11+ wins in 2023 and beyond.  

 

[cardiackat88.]

5 hours ago, Harbingers said:

Who thinks we are actually gonna trot PJ out as the starter vs. the falcons. 

As Panthers fans, we have seen some very bad QB play for most of the time over the last 25 years.

I have to say that PJs cameo in this last game may have been the very worst performance by an NFL professional QB I have ever watched play, not just as a Panther.

He was incredibly awful. 

[Toomers]

3 hours ago, BrianS said:

If you're looking for a silver lining, 2022 free agency may be it.  We have a TON of dead money coming off the books this spring so we should be in a much better position to pick up quality players.

Next year our dead cap is 7 million or so.

Plus 13.2M for Paradis and Reddicks void years.

And Darnold will get 18.5M to either backup here or somewhere. That will be dead or useless cap space. 
 

Erving(5.6M) and Elflein(4.6M) will need to be addressed. 
 

Just those put them just about where they were the last two years. 

[Carl Spackler]

3 hours ago, CashNewton22 said:

People aren’t going to like this post because it’s too realistic a look into our team. 

I think people laugh at it, because it's rooted in blind optimism and denial of reality.

[grimesgoat]

4 minutes ago, Toomers said:

Plus 13.2M for Paradis and Reddicks void years.

And Darnold will get 18.5M to either backup here or somewhere. That will be dead or useless cap space. 
 

Erving(5.6M) and Elflein(4.6M) will need to be addressed. 
 

Just those put them just about where they were the last two years. 

I believe its only 5m in 2022 for Paradis/Reddick.  

The Darnold situation is tougher.  I think he will be here in a lame-duck fashion.  Panthers don't save anything for cutting him, and I don't believe anyone will come calling.  If they can dump him without giving up more than a 6th or 7th, it would definitely be worth it.  But you still gotta find a QB at some point.  I'd keep him around and see what he can do with a better OL.

Erving and Elflein are not breaking the bank and will be useful depth.  Add a 2nd round C or G, and get Christiansen and Brown up to speed and those two might be serviceable.  I'd rather those guys be our depth or spot starters than Miller, Daley, or Scott.    

[Toomers]

1 minute ago, grimesgoat said:

I believe its only 5m in 2022 for Paradis/Reddick.  

The Darnold situation is tougher.  I think he will be here in a lame-duck fashion.  Panthers don't save anything for cutting him, and I don't believe anyone will come calling.  If they can dump him without giving up more than a 6th or 7th, it would definitely be worth it.  But you still gotta find a QB at some point.  I'd keep him around and see what he can do with a better OL.

Erving and Elflein are not breaking the bank and will be useful depth.  Add a 2nd round C or G, and get Christiansen and Brown up to speed and those two might be serviceable.  I'd rather those guys be our depth or spot starters than Miller, Daley, or Scott.    

Paradis is 9.2M

Reddick is 4M

Elf and Erving both have 7M cap hits for probable backups. 
 
And no 2nd or 3rd pick…..yet. At least not until they devalue their top pick. No QB. Need 4 OL. A DT. A LB. A FS. Another 40+M in dead cap. And it’s all on the current staff. 

[bobcat91]

We are on schedule. To honestly believe we have 2 top 10 picks, and are simply poorly coached is a huge reach. We had top ten picks because we had a severe lack of talent. We have addressed the defense well in the past 2 drafts and in FA. A DT, MLB and FS are still needed along with depth. Our WR are good, but not spectacular. We need more speed. I hated the Arnold trade because he and Darnold were developing good chemistry: so far Thomas has been a bust and Tremble has just been ok. The OL is the worst in the League by far. Outside of Morton at RT, and maybe a couple of rookies, this group is trash. There aren't even good backups on the team. Making this group just above average would pay dividends. Darnold would be fine with any help at all, but when he has to carry the entire load, with this OL, its not happening. CMac is top 3 when healthy, so we need him to be back healthy. This is what a total rebuild looks like and why we have 11 rookies on the team. The defense is very good. They were mainly fixed by the draft, FA and trades. Next up is the offense. With our #1, I want the Iowa Center or an OT, either from Texas A&M or Charles Cross from Mississippi State. Any of those three start immediately and are there for 10 years. Next, get more OL using our cap room in FA and continue to add pieces. I think Fitterer and Rhule work well together and contrary to what most of the board thinks, Ruhle is damn good. Those moves alone get us in the playoffs next year. That is what a 3 year rebuild looks like.

Edited October 28, 2021 by bobcat91

[grimesgoat]

1 hour ago, Toomers said:

Paradis is 9.2M

Reddick is 4M

Elf and Erving both have 7M cap hits for probable backups. 
 
And no 2nd or 3rd pick…..yet. At least not until they devalue their top pick. No QB. Need 4 OL. A DT. A LB. A FS. Another 40+M in dead cap. And it’s all on the current staff. 

Paradis is 8.2.

I believe the void years are to spread the dead money over multiple years.  We must account for 12.2, but only 5.1 in 2022.  Then another 5.1 in 2023.  Then 1.0 in each of 2024 and 2025.

[Toomers]

3 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

Paradis is 8.2.

I believe the void years are to spread the dead money over multiple years.  We must account for 12.2, but only 5.1 in 2022.  Then another 5.1 in 2023.  Then 1.0 in each of 2024 and 2025.

That’s not how it works. And it’s 9.2M on Sportrac but either could be right. Not much difference. When the contract ends, all the cap space hits. His contract voids on Feb. 10. And his 8 or 9M will be dead cap space they can’t use going forward. Same with Reddick. These aren’t cuts. They are restructure from his 2nd and 3rd years to save more money for a “rebuild”.  Converted salary into bonus spread among fake years. 

[Basbear]

Thanks for not being a popular e-bitach that spends most waking hours complaining online. 

[Eazy-E]

You left out the part about how our coaching staff is regressing at an alarming rate. Matt Rhule looks lost on game days, our offensive coordinator is in so far over his head that opposing defenses know our plays before we even snap the ball.

Phil Snow has the most talent to work with on the team yet doesn’t seem to know how to properly utilize them or when to use proper formations. Not using DTs or 3 man fronts in our 3-4 against Dallas when they’re gashing us in the run game. Not blitzing against Philly when they weren’t able to pass the ball against us all day. Playing soft zone against a depleted Giants offense allowing them to eat us alive with quick slants and seam routes exposing the holes in our soft zone.

23 games in and our coaches have shown zero improvements and look to be getting worse. They’re getting exposed and out coached by some of the worst coaches in the league. We got embarrassed by Joe Judge for fugs sake.