More Illuminating Stats/Context On What's Happening With Sam and Robby

[Proudiddy]

This was from David Newton prior to the Vikings game and I did not see it posted here already, so forgive me if it has...  but, this is why I don't get any of the Robby bashing despite our receiver's performance this past Sunday.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/35556/carolina-panthers-wr-robby-anderson-and-qb-sam-darnold-still-searching-for-chemistry-they-had-with-ny-jets

An animated Anderson went to the sideline and yelled at receivers coach Frisman Jackson. He wanted to run a “double move, stutter and go,’’ understanding the defensive back that had been sitting on his routes most of the day.

He called the outburst “passion.’’

“Somewhat frustrated too,’’ Anderson said on Wednesday. “I felt like if I had the opportunity, I could have made a difference in us winning the game. That’s my biggest concern, winning.’’

...

Anderson lack of involvement is one of the biggest mysteries of the season. His catch rate of 41.4% is a significant drop-off from his 68.5% last season, when he finished with a career-best 95 catches on 136 targets for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns.

Clay says Anderson appears to be the third option on most plays, based off of the depth of his routes (15.3 yards, up from 9.4 yards last season) and number of targets.

“I’m not too much in control of that,’’ Anderson said. “I’ve got to do what’s told of me to do.’’

But, he admitted, “My role has shifted a little bit.’’

For one, DJ Moore is getting more of the shorter routes, which may explain why he’s getting 29% of the targets compared to 17% for Anderson. Last season, Anderson got 27% compared to 22% for Moore.

The Panthers are trying to fix things. Anderson has been targeted 18 times the past two weeks after tallying 11 targets the first three weeks, which prompted Clay’s tweet.

In a film study of all 29 of Anderson’s targets, with help from ESPN Stats & Information and NFL Next Gen Stats, these things stood out:

• Eight of Darnold’s 28 off-target throws have been to Anderson, including five on his first nine.

• Anderson has been open on 31 of 35 routes where he wasn’t targeted. This is defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as 3-5 yards of separation.

• Anderson has faced man-to-man coverage on 94 routes, compared to 70 during the same span last season. Darnold has a 47.9 Total QBR versus man coverage, ranking 24th of 32 qualified quarterbacks.

• Anderson excelled in 2020 on crossing routes, which accounted for 13.7% of his plays. That number has dropped to 6.9% in 2021. It was 13% with Darnold in New York.

• Anderson’s tight-window targets have risen from 15.4% to 20.7%, but his receiving percentage has dropped from 28% to 12.5%. His open-target percentage has dropped from 23.5% to 13.8%, and his wide-open target percentage has dropped from 17.6% to 6.9%.

•  

[Proudiddy]

And as an aside, this is as much an indictment on Brady as it is Darnold.  I mentioned in the gamethread Sunday that I didn't understand why we weren't incorporating more of the concepts the Vikings were to get our guys open in reference to how the Vikings started running our of doubles and bunch forms and dragging their receivers across the field to avoid Taylor locking them up.  We used both DJ and Robby this way last season, but it's like the offense is different now...  and even with the shift in routes and concepts in this season's iteration of Brady's offense, when the receivers do come open, most of the stats show Sam is missing them on a vast majority of them.  And with how bad the OL is, I'm still not understanding why we don't do more underneath stuff and use motion to get the ball out quicker and then start taking shots down the field as the defense tries to counter that.  This offense feels a lot more like Shula's for some reason.

[glenwo2]

22 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

This was from David Newton prior to the Vikings game and I did not see it posted here already, so forgive me if it has...  but, this is why I don't get any of the Robby bashing despite our receiver's performance this past Sunday.

From the same article :

For one, DJ Moore is getting more of the shorter routes, which may explain why he’s getting 29% of the targets compared to 17% for Anderson. Last season, Anderson got 27% compared to 22% for Moore.

 

So this is not exactly Sam's fault.  This is more Brady's as he has Robbie be the deep threat instead of just hanging around 10 yards or less (along with DJ) catching those easy 5 yarders and getting YAC.    I think Brady's reasoning was that Sam is willing to throw the ball deep and his theory was Robbie would catch the ball.

Now that Sam's deep ball inaccuracy is on display, maybe Brady will bring Robbie back in and use him like he did with Teddy?  

I mean...that's how Robbie got all his stats last season.    Makes sense, right?  

[Squid Game]

There’s a reason why Robby didn’t want Darnold over Teddy. Now, we see why. It’s kind of sad that Adam Gase was able to get Robby involved with Sam in NY but our offensive genius Joe Brady can’t. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Squid Game

[glenwo2]

Quote

"There’s a reason why Robby didn’t want Darnold over Teddy."

Baloney.    Robbie signed his extension *AFTER* Sam was acquired.

If he didn't want to be on the same team as him, he would've went elsewhere. 

And quite frankly, I wish he did go elsewhere.

Edited October 20, 2021 by glenwo2

[ichigo1057]

2 hours ago, Proudiddy said:

Anderson has been open on 31 of 35 routes where he wasn’t targeted. This is defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as 3-5 yards of separation.

The real question is how many of those 31 was at a point when Sam was having to try and not get killed by a defender or was already getting tackled thanks to our Award Winningly bad OLine (primarily the interior) thus there not being an actual chance to get the ball to the open man.

Edited October 20, 2021 by ichigo1057

[glenwo2]

10 minutes ago, ichigo1057 said:

The real question is how many of those 31 was at a point when Sam was having to try and not get killed by a defender or was already getting tackled thanks to our Award Winningly bad OLine (primarily the interior) thus there not being an actual chance to get the ball to the open man.

NextGen Stats has the benefit of watching from the Overhead like we're playing a videogame instead of playing from Sam's perspective where he has a 300 pound behemoth coming at him like a freight train.

Edited October 20, 2021 by glenwo2

[top dawg]

Yeah, not getting separation my ass. I knew you wouldn't believe me, but maybe you'll believe Next Gen Stats.

Robby wasn't all there last game for sure, but he's better than many here give him credit for. As has been said, he hasn't just forgotten how to play receiver.

[BlackPanther21_]

1 hour ago, Squid Game said:

There’s a reason why Robby didn’t want Darnold over Teddy. Now, we see why. It’s kind of sad that Adam Gase was able to get Robby involved with Sam in NY but our offensive genius Joe Brady can’t. 

Or just maybe, Anderson stopped caring after getting paid.

[top dawg]

41 minutes ago, BlackPanther21_ said:

Or just maybe, Anderson stopped caring after getting paid.

Robby's contract is decidedly average. And, no, not caring isn't in Robby's DNA.

[GoobyPls]

The facts are Robby was better on the jets before Sam arrived, and he was better with Teddy in Carolina. There seems to be one common denominator in Robby struggles 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AndeRo04.htm

[glenwo2]

1 hour ago, GoobyPls said:

The facts are Robby was better on the jets before Sam arrived, and he was better with Teddy in Carolina. There seems to be one common denominator in Robby struggles 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AndeRo04.htm

Robby was a no-name Nobody on the Jets.    

He played better with Teddy because he wasn't used as a Deep threat 'cause Teddy couldn't throw it deep to save his life.    Easy to catch 2 to 5-yarders and stat-pad your way to a nice contract extension(that is undeserved). 

[glenwo2]

3 hours ago, top dawg said:

Yeah, not getting separation my ass. I knew you wouldn't believe me, but maybe you'll believe Next Gen Stats.

Robby wasn't all there last game for sure, but he's better than many here give him credit for. As has been said, he hasn't just forgotten how to play receiver.

I'm curious as to what your response to this question is?

The real question is how many of those 31 was at a point when Sam was having to try and not get killed by a defender or was already getting tackled thanks to our Award Winningly bad OLine (primarily the interior) thus there not being an actual chance to get the ball to the open man. - @ichigo1057

[mav1234]

2 hours ago, GoobyPls said:

The facts are Robby was better on the jets before Sam arrived, and he was better with Teddy in Carolina. There seems to be one common denominator in Robby struggles 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AndeRo04.htm

I've seen people say this a couple times so I wanted to point out why this is a bad take from his season-by-season numbers.

Remember, Darnold missed a total of 6 games in 2018 and 2019; so, by the hypothesis that the Robby was more productive without him would suggest we could look at those 6 games to get an idea on if this is true, or perhaps something else pushed Robby's production down in 2018/2019.  Take a wild guess what the data shows?

Robby without Darnold in 2018: only 2 games played, 6 catches for 70 yards, 11.67 yards/reception, 0 TDs

Robby with Darnold in 2018:  12 games, 44 receptions for 682 yards, 15.5 yards/reception, 6 TDs

Robby without Darnold in 2019: 3 games, 8 receptions, 102 yads, 13.50 yards/reception, 0 TDs

Robby with Darnold in 2019: 13 games, 44 receptions for 671 yards, 15.2 yards/reception, 5 TDs

Sure with such a small sample it is hard to say for sure if Darnold really was driving Robby down, but the Jets team from 2017 to 2018 was pretty different, and not just in terms of starting QBs. Plus, his yards/reception didn't actually go down from 2017 to 2018 or 2019 (all 3 were 15ish) - that didn't happen until 2020 with Bridgewater when it dropped to 11.5 (and fwiw it is a bit higher this year with Darnold).

Edited October 20, 2021 by mav1234