NYTimes has an NFL Playoff Prediction Widget.

[PanthersATL]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/carolina-panthers-nfl-playoff-picture.html#&

Let's have some fun

Currently, the widget says we have a 64% chance to make the playoffs based on current information and 50k+ simulations.  Let's go down the chart and see how our chances change with a given win/loss:

• Win vs Philly: our chances for playoffs go to 76%
• Beat the Falcons twice:  84%
• I guess this is the difference between AFC and NFC opponents: (based on how I have the win/loss columns selected for a generic 9-8 season) if we WIN vs the Patriots and lose to Arizona, we have a 43% chance of playoffs. If I flip-flop the Patriots and Arizona games where we beat ARI, then our playoff chance goes to 66%.

Clicking around back and forth on the various win/loss columns, the widget suggest that the Arizona game is key to our playoff appearance.  It also makes a strong case for having to beat the Saints too...

Generically speaking, it looks like a minimum of 9 wins will be needed for any playoff percentage. 10 wins makes a huge difference vs 9.

 

(Hey, I know it's still early in the season - but as long as you don't take this widget seriously beyond the number crunching game, it's no different than guessing at lottery numbers right now. As the article says, with 208 games remaining there are about 411 novemdecillion different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end.  Still, it could be handy to help determine those "we must win" or "must cheer for other teams to lose" games  )

 

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Here is how it appears to me today... 

Wild Card:  12-5 (Host)

Losses to: Cowboys, Cardinals, Bills, Buccaneers, Buccaneers.  

 

[PanthersATL]

more fun with algorithms

• 36% chance to win the division
• 30% chance to get a wild card
• 9% chance to get a bye
• 70% to make the playoffs
• less than 1% chance of getting the #1 draft pick

 

[Cdparr7]

12 minutes ago, PanthersATL said:

more fun with algorithms

• 36% chance to win the division
• 30% chance to get a wild card
• 9% chance to get a bye
• 70% to make the playoffs
• less than 1% chance of getting the #1 draft pick

 

9% you say?

so there’s a chance!

[L-TownCat]

15% of all fans agree 65% of the time 90% of stats are 110% bullshit.