Carolina’s Defense Has It Looking Like A Contender — If Sam Darnold And The Offense Can Keep Up

[SBBlue]

Carolina’s Defense Has It Looking Like A Contender — If Sam Darnold And The Offense Can Keep Up | FiveThirtyEight

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The Panthers head into Thursday night’s game against the Houston Texans with around a 75 percent chance2 to go 3-0 to start the season for the fifth time in franchise history. It’s a start that has the potential to get fans in Carolina extremely excited: The Panthers made the playoffs in three of those four previous 3-0 seasons, and twice they went all the way to the Super Bowl.3 And the Panthers’ success mirrors the league base rate: Since 1978, 198 teams have started the year 3-0, and 149 (75.3 percent) of them ended up making the playoffs.
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Through two weeks, Carolina has the top-ranked defense as measured by expected points added per play (-0.25), defensive success rate (67.3 percent), third-down conversion rate allowed (25 percent) and yards per play allowed (3.69)

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It’s a different story on offense, though. In the most important measures, the Panthers rank slightly below average. Their offensive EPA per play ranks 17th and their yards per play ranks 18th in the league. Star running back Christian McCaffrey is off to an unspectacular start on the ground — he ranks sixth in rushing yards (170), averaging 3.8 yards per rush
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Darnold’s Total QBR through two games of 66.3 isn’t dominant, but it is good for sixth in the league. He’s averaging 8 yards per attempt and has thrown three touchdowns, with only one interception, and has taken just three sacks. And Darnold has been particularly good from a clean pocket, ranking fourth in the NFL with a Raw QBR of 84.8.

Sports media doesn’t know what to make of Carolina

Carolina Panthers power rankings through Week 2 of the 2021 season

SOURCE	RANK	PREVIOUS	CHANGE
Football Outsiders	1	7	+6
Pro Football Network	7	25	+18
CBS	11	23	+12
Yahoo	14	22	+8
ESPN	15	23	+8
Sports Illustrated	17	23	+6
NFL.com	18	25	+7
FiveThirtyEight	18	23	+5
Sporting News	20	25	+5

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Here at FiveThirtyEight, our Elo model has strong early season priors and is fairly conservative, ranking Carolina as the 18th best team in the NFL — despite giving it a 45-point bump in Elo after the Panthers defeated the Saints. But perhaps Football Outsiders is on to something and a playoff run is on order this year. It seems improbable, but so did Darnold’s QB transformation. 

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[Floppin]

That Pro Football Network power rankings jump made me snort my beer. 

[SBBlue]

I would not have predicted Sam to have the 6th best QBR and 4th best in a clean pocket after game 2.

[Proudiddy]

Damn, what did we do to Sporting News.

Also, Football Outsiders are the only authority I trust on advanced football analytics from this point on...  fug Collinsworth.

[mc52beast]

Rhule has made it a point to upgrade the D since he’s been here, look at the draft and signings. Makes sense that they are ahead of the offense, which I assume will be getting multiple picks in next years draft.

[Proudiddy]

1 minute ago, SBBlue said:

I would not have predicted Sam to have the 6th best QBR and 4th best in a clean pocket after game 2.

NGL, I was legit surprised 66 or whatever it was is the 6th highest QBR.  I know 50 is considered the average, obviously, as it's on a scale of 100, but I was legitimately surprised it was that high.  And the clean pocket stat is nothing but encouraging considering a lot of the concern about him was that he would be antsy and see ghosts from his time in NY.  Very, very encouraging.

[AggieLean]

lol.